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  • #265,481
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:01pm Jun 30, 2010 5:01pm
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/428...ngframe.th.png

Well the shorts from 2287 have worked out fine, still have those shorts from 2180 going on though so thats a bummer =/ I see several down movements, i still see more down movement, targets are either the purple lower lines.

Waiting for 2210 to decide if im going to cash in the profitable ones and cancel the unprofitable ones (even though im in the green right now), or if im holding on.
  • #265,482
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:04pm Jun 30, 2010 5:04pm
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  • #265,483
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:11pm Jun 30, 2010 5:11pm
don't rush things up.. if that inverted head and shoulders at H4/Daily chart played out.. we could see 1.26xx soon enough
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #265,484
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:25pm Jun 30, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting kandarv
I agree on the 1.2150 retest level, I'm targeting below that.
I closed my position +45pips in, I don't like the P.A. right now
  • #265,485
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:28pm Jun 30, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting fayz0r
don't rush things up.. if that inverted head and shoulders at H4/Daily chart played out.. we could see 1.26xx soon enough
EZ everybody,

I would be more glad to see a confirmation first on that pattern about 1.24ish on daily TF. Then if it has been done, we would see much more than 1.26XX imo...

At the moment I don't see any fundamental or any other reason to go long for hundreds of pips. To be more exact, if this pair brakes 1.2150 then we could easily see 1.15.

I'm actually short from 1.2280 and I got a position from 1.2260 too...

Take care all, laters!
  • #265,486
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm
Thanks for the heads up on the au uraceulose,
looks like a high probability trade .http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #265,487
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm
Quoting fayz0r
don't rush things up.. if that inverted head and shoulders at H4/Daily chart played out.. we could see 1.26xx soon enough
Very unlikely. I'm not sure how bulls are hoping for the euro to get there while everything else is falling.
  • #265,488
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm Jun 30, 2010 6:04pm
If the US markets keep going down its gonna be hard for this thing to make any kind of rally. The S&P broke a strong level today which leads me to believe the US markets are going to continue to fall for at least the next few days. This should give strength to the dollar.
  • #265,489
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:08pm Jun 30, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Atomanti
EZ everybody,

I would be more glad to see a confirmation first on that pattern about 1.24ish on daily TF. Then if it has been done, we would see much more than 1.26XX imo...

At the moment I don't see any fundamental or any other reason to go long for hundreds of pips. To be more exact, if this pair brakes 1.2150 then we could easily see 1.15.

I'm actually short from 1.2280 and I got a position from 1.2260 too...

Take care all, laters!
why fight the chart? and the trend, just halfway through the journey?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,490
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:15pm Jun 30, 2010 6:15pm
Boy, did I screw up. I expected the roll of the 12 month LTRO into 3 month to have a press release saying it was 'better than expected.' Of course since the roll date is 1 July, that's when I expected the announcement; my plan was to cover most of my short tonight ahead of any announcement.
DOH! I didn't anticipate the announcement to occur today. I woke up ten minutes before the huge green candle this morning from the announcement.
Takeaway from this: Be prepared for more of the same (Euro rising) when they announce the results of the stress tests. If they're anything like the US stress tests (they'll be easier), even Indy Mac (taken over by the FDIC a couple of years ago) could pass.
Here's an article on the roll of the LTRO: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...-ecbs-3m-ltro/

I don't see this smaller than expected roll to be all roses and blue skies though. I suspect that many of the banks that took the original LTRO sold some of their sovereign debt holdings so that they didn't have to roll as much money. And they probably bought a bunch of sovereign debt because that's what banks do - borrow money cheap and loan it out at higher interest rates.
So the result is that the ECB gets stuffed to the gills with European sovereign paper not worth the electrons that the digital 'paper' is 'printed' on. It's a page out of our Fed's playbook; the Fed has bought a metric ton of worthless paper from US banks to help clean up their balance sheets. But the difference is that I don't see the ECB having as much room to do that as the Fed. In essence, the ECB is printing digital euros to do this.
Here's an older article on the ECB announcement that they would be buying sovereign debt: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/d...in-eu-bailout/

I read a great article with graphs on how interrelated European sovereign debt is, but I can't find it right now. This will have to do: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...153415820.html
Note that French and German banks held more than $110B of Greek debt alone.


Finally, I've gotten several warm welcomes and interest in my posts outlining the fundamentals of the EURUSD from members of this board. Thanks, it's much appreciated - and I'm learning a lot more from all of you about technicals than I'm posting on fundamentals. However, if a large number of posters object to me posting my view of fundamentals in this thread, I will move my posts elsewhere.
  • #265,491
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:24pm Jun 30, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting Awesome
If the US markets keep going down its gonna be hard for this thing to make any kind of rally. The S&P broke a strong level today which leads me to believe the US markets are going to continue to fall for at least the next few days. This should give strength to the dollar.
I'm starting to hear rumors of fairly large sized margin calls on some hedge funds. Between commodity prices sliding lower and stock prices moving lower, I'd expect someone to blow up fairly soon.
In the last three years, I've seen a couple of big blowups when the Asian markets are open; that's when it gets ugly, as the markets are thinner over there. However, the HFTs (high frequency traders) have really made the US equity markets a LOT thinner, as can be seen from the halt on Citigroup the other day. The market sell order wasn't huge and shouldn't have triggered a halt. That should give people an idea of how thin the US equity markets are getting. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010...rcuit-breaker/

This instability is spreading across all asset classes worldwide.
  • #265,492
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:33pm Jun 30, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Boy, did I screw up....
broke banks backing broke countries and visa versa. i don't see the words "ponzi scheme" in the article. so now these banks will pull liquidity out of markets as the governments raise taxes (and print). then say "we past the test" as the shell games continues. sounds to me that they don't have a clue. that crashing sound you hear is the hedge funds in the background. meanwhile they are still on tv saying buy this or that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,493
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:37pm Jun 30, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
... However, if a large number of posters object to me posting my view of fundamentals in this thread, I will move my posts elsewhere.
As I've already said, you have a seat at the Table reserved with your name on it...

Take your time...
FUBAR...
  • #265,494
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:39pm Jun 30, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Boy, did I screw up....
Hi,

When will the stress test be done? What are the implications of the 1 year LTRO being due with only 150bln rolling over?
  • #265,495
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:39pm Jun 30, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Boy, did I screw up. IDOH! I didn't anticipate the announcement to occur today. I woke up ten minutes before the huge green candle this morning from the announcement.
That one Bit us both.... I got it patched and repaired already tho.
FUBAR...
  • #265,496
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:40pm Jun 30, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
meanwhile they are still on tv saying buy this or that.
They're looking for a bagholder. Some bagholder paid top dollar for a bulb at the end of Dutch Tulip Mania. Some bagholder paid top dollar for a beanie baby. Some bagholder paid top dollar for an old baseball card.
We've been blowing and popping bubbles for many years across every conceivable 'asset' class.
  • #265,497
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:45pm Jun 30, 2010 6:45pm
at a good place atm.. upper levels may cap at 2235/38 if so that's the risk. currently 2223
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,498
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:46pm Jun 30, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Finally, I've gotten several warm welcomes and interest in my posts outlining the fundamentals of the EURUSD from members of this board. Thanks, it's much appreciated - and I'm learning a lot more from all of you about technicals than I'm posting on fundamentals. However, if a large number of posters object to me posting my view of fundamentals in this thread, I will move my posts elsewhere.
yea man stay if you wanna learn, it's only your benefit if you make it so......I started viewing this forum about 3 years ago when I first started trading, but I didn't become a member and start posting till last year when I really got a solid handle on trading. I can tell you this though, I learned a TON of stuff from the older guys in here, their posts are worth their weight....I'm a student right now I'm my last year in undergrad at my university, and I can honestly say that I've learned more in here in the past year about trading and economics than I have in 3 years at school....just beware of the trolls in here
  • #265,499
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:48pm Jun 30, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting sidhujag
Hi,

When will the stress test be done? What are the implications of the 1 year LTRO being due with only 150bln rolling over?
I don't have an exact date on the stress test results; if someone's got a hard date, I'd love to know. This is an article from earlier this month indicating that the results will be released in July: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...s-test-results

As for the LTRO, there was 449B euros in 12 month LTRO issued last June. Only 132B rolled, leaving 317B (plus interest) that didn't roll. It's likely that when banks got that money, they bought ~317B of european sovereign debt. Before the roll, these same banks probably turned around and dumped that sovereign debt (especially if it was PIIGS debt) onto the ECB.
  • #265,500
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:52pm Jun 30, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting fayz0r
don't rush things up.. if that inverted head and shoulders at H4/Daily chart played out.. we could see 1.26xx soon enough
There is an even larger Head and Shoulders pattern that has been violated on the S&P 500 and the DOW. so take your pick with the Head and Shoulders. One of them will be negated. Technically the S&P H&S is already in action with violation of the neckline. I'm wary though I remember when we had one back in 09 after we first started this Bull rally and the reversal pattern was negated and the markets rallied 2000 more points. This neckline that was violated yesterday and even further today has been on high volume though, which leads me to believe we wont see too much strength in the markets. Most likely if the reversal on equities plays out, the eur/usd inverted one will be negated and visa versa.
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