Cable Update (GBPUSD)

hi alll

darn u are all crackforex heads

wise man thanks for the new system its great

cloggie great posts still the man of the week thanks for the time and info , darn u have no garden its the weekend

digger u are needed in here

Laptop and wireless...

Moved in for the game though.

http://i.imagehost.org/0662/gbpusd.gif

yes, the last few FOMC´s rethoric always was
"for an extended period of time"
and everyone is lurking for some hawkish tones.
Many say US will hike before UK or EU will do,
but with last weeks 1-0-7 vote,
is it possible that UK raise in 3-6 months?
inflation is also rising (if i´m not wrong again, ha ha).

ok, now it´s saturday and i don´t want to steel your time anymore.
Come on Ghana, 30 mins, ohhh penalty for US!!!

TIED!

Aside from the illegitimate illegal marxist immigrant for a President and his
corrupt cronies, why does the world thinks of us as the Ugly Americans?

Never mind, I answered my question... LOL

Not asking the pervert FL who bathes in the filth of the Ganges and comes out cleaner.

All other responses will be ignored.

Dr. D.

Hi fourxtrader,

don´t take it wrong.
In sport competition i´m always for the underdogs
and small players, think it´s kind of natural.
and Ghana is the last african team in turnament.

Tomorrow my team will get kicked out by England.

This is the only post today I don't need to correct.. See even a blind squirrel can find an acorn every once in a while.

(only if we get penalty shoutout, then...)

Blind squirrel is my second name, ha ha

GHAAAAANA 2:1 , cool

Yes it is, do you remember who broke Ballack's foot? As a German I would not have expected you to support Ghana. But then again his brother plays for the German squad.

Ghana are masters at defending AND bleeding the clock.... even
counting every blade of grass on substitutions, using stretchers
instead of legs to transfer to the sidelines on a boo boo. LOL

Wo is me!

Good luck to Ghana. Congrats!!

Dr. D.

soccer is a very physical sport
i don´t think Kevin Prince Boateng has done it intentional
but it was a real martial arts kick,
i could empathize with Ballack from TV, it looks uoogly
but, cloggie do you know with Ballack Germany never won a big title.
Our Team is too young and unexpirienced this year,
many injured player not only Ballack.
Holland is in good shape, nice offensiv division,
you´ve seen Robben after his transition 2nd half?
From outside to the mid and booom, at the bar unfortunately.
This move he made at least 10 times in Bundesliga (BayernMunich).
I like him most with Kuyt.
Good luck Holland as well.

Last opportunity for US forgiven, Ghana will make it, unbelivibel
BTW, i also discovered my love for Africa in 1994 by visiting East Africa-Kenya and Tanzania,
very interesting continent.

Sorry guys, last soccer post for today,
i know there is another thread for it.

An excellent post Cloggie! Unless we have pockets so big we can outrun the market, better to follow the masses.

You are vouched.




ta
ams

Friday's post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=233831

Here's a weekend update cos its at a retrace point, buy on dips is the strategy to 1.5300. First dip buy is around 1.5000 - 1.5010.

Sometimes things are clearer when kept simply. The move up from 4240 has respected every level that were created on the H4 on the move down. A new TL has formed on the H4 signifying a reversal. I trade what I see and am not going to predict the longer view here, but unless one of the lower levels gives we are looking at a reversal this week. There isn't a lot indicating that we would visit any of the lower levels in the immediate future. Once 50606 goes we are looking at 51476 and 52654. Of course TY tonight could give us a touch of 49647, but if that holds the bull is in charge.

H4 set a new direction this week and in my humble opinion it is a lot easier following the rest rather then trying to predict where or when she is going to turn around. So I will see the dips as opportunities to buy and not as an indication of a reversal until a new TL is formed and at least one of my H4 asslevels has gone.

Please see attached analysis,

My thoughts are that we are close to a top position, and we have a potential 400 point move coming up, entry levels are shown.

All the best

Mike

You asked me to comment so I will.

Your post sums up the Keynesian view of dealing with an economic downturn, a debate as old as the crash of 1929. You see the budget as a detriment to the public sector, which it is, but you overlook the advantages to the private sector, and that in a nutshell is 2 very different views on how to tackle a downturn.

I see things differently on a fundamental basis and did go in depth in a post on Friday evening.

I am not a Keynes follower nor fan of his views. I see a recovery coming from the private sector and not from increased spending in the public sector.

You give 4 views on why you think the bear move will continue and I will comment on all 4 of them:

 

1. Budget reports a.k.a Austerity program planned increase taxes the uk [sic] goverment is weighing on the pound.

There was no increase of tax in the band that does the consumer spending, yes there is slight increase in the 100k+ band, but it only amounts to 1,500 a year and that is insignificant. Yes there is a VAT increase but there is 2 ways of looking at this, the lower income bands don't generate that much VAT so it really does not affect them a lot, a £0.99 item will be repriced to £1.01, not really significant, especially as they left alcohol (except for cider which was due), tobacco and petrol duty alone. And lets be honest people with money have various ways out of paying VAT, or at least are able to recover a significant amount. They did rise the tax treshold taking 800,000 people out of paying tax at all. They lowered the CT to 24, in stages, making it the lowest of the G20, now that is significant for an economic recovery, they also exempted the NI on the first 10 new employees outside of London, again that is significant. I am of the opinion that this is the right way to approach an economic recovery, reduce the burden of the public sector and stimulate the private sector.

 

1. Inflation posing a threat for higher rates but economy situation not yet recovered.

Correct and we have seen the first indication in the last BOE report, and this is actually great news, this bull move this week may become self fullfilling leading to higher Sterling which would be a great point to increase the interest rate here and open the floodgates for inward investment. The UK government wants a higher Sterling, allowing a rate rise before anyone in Europe, look a the effect it had in Canada and Australia. The UK could steam ahead of the EU rapidly. So this does not actually support a return of the bears at all, if this plays out, which it will in the very near future it only means the bulls are solidly in control

 

1. Sentiment is changing as market has a slight recovery according some numbers.

So how does this add to your bear view then? Sterling price is purely based on sentiment, and believe me the City loves this, they love the budget, they love the pro business approach and they love the fact the UK is trying to differentiate itself from the rest of Europe. If this plays out the bears will be put out to pasture for a long time.

 

1. Profit taking from short possitions.(short covering) but sentiment still bearish

Your first point I agree with wholeheartedly, but if you say there is significant short coverings here, why do you add that the sentiment is still bearish, wouldn't the shorts just add to their positions seeing that the retrace gives them a great price to do so? I don't agree, the short coverings happened because the bears are running scared, look at this week a solid upmove, uninterupted. I don't see a bearish sentiment at all.


Summary:

You are curve fitting, you are using your Keynesian view to predict a return to the bearish move down. I really don't have much of a view on where she goes, just trade what I see. But if all the holes in the Swiss cheese are going to line up fundamentally here, I am of the opinion that 1.6 is very probable.

So to answer your question on whether you are right or wrong, it really is irrelevant it amounts to different views on how an economic downturn should be tackled, and I am with the current government, look what it did to Canada and Australia, yes they are commodity countries but lowering the CT to 24 will attract some serious international business and will have a great effect on the economic recovery. Tackling the Structural deficit in my book is critical, Keynes would have advocated greater borrowing to invest in the public sector and I will always be a true capitalist, we need the private sector to get us out of this mess and we need the government to take a back seat. And that is what these guys are doing and guess what, the market is loving it. And that is what counts, Gilt spreads are down, borrowing is down, Sterling is up. All good news that can start a proper momentum in the recovery here.

In board rooms all across the country board members are looking at this and thinking, you know what now is the time to invest in our business, CT is down and this is a great chance to position ourselves within the UK and Europe. Business owners are looking at this and say, money is cheap, my taxes are down, lets add that piece of equipment, let's build that new factory, let's add that new division. And even small entrepreneurs are looking at the increased treshold to 5 million and CGT going to 28 and are saying, you know what lets reinvest that capital instead.

We don't have to be a posterchild of recovery, all we have to do is outrun euroland, and that in the current climate is pretty easy. Take a close look at Canada, what they did in the last decade is pretty amazing, and guess what they are laughing all the way to the bank. They took the word Keynesian out of their dictionary and got on with it.

Technically, look at my H4 asschart, a few posts above here, we tried a bearish reversal from the 4th to the 8th and it failed. What makes you think the next try is going to be succesful?

TL's are like SR's the longer they get tested and respected, the stronger they become. If each and every move away gets slapped down in a hurry, the majority of traders will learn pretty quickly and stick to it.....

I have been away a few days and have to read and investigate further to make up my mind, but my first impression is we are finally in bull teritorium and unless we leave it very soon (< 1.50) we will stay there for a long time....
Hope friday bears protected themselfs....
Now reading what you guys have to say

D1:

lol wheres every body even the cable is sad and boring England is out so what hard luck referee did f the game up

Most are too chicken now to admit they are short after we all jumped on their case last Friday, scared the muppets away. Nice and quiet, now we can get on with some serious trading setups here. Not holding my breath though, only a matter of time before the next countertrader shows up. The long boys took their profit at this resistance and are now watching to see what is happens with the TL's here, just to see if this is an opportunity to get a better deal or to steal few pips on the TY retrace.

EDIT: there we go, 15 moving below the 25, onwards to the weekly TL now. Am not trading this just watching the action or lack thereof.