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  • #234,041
  • Jun 26, 2010 12:55pm Jun 26, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Now that's clever.

Dr. D.

Keeps the inbox low too.....
  • #234,042
  • Jun 26, 2010 12:59pm Jun 26, 2010 12:59pm
Hi Im one of those who has been hanging out in here for about 6 months.
I'm still hanging on to my account, & learning from those in here Cloggie,Magix,forextrader4 & others. I dont feel confident enough on posting charts & wouldnt like anyone to follow me. But I read,learn & its good for me to see that sometimes my charts & thoughts are similar to some on here.
Thanks Magix for your thread, & thanks Cloggie for all your wise words, especially the detailed posts given today.
One day I may be able to post some more!!

Julie
  • #234,043
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:01pm Jun 26, 2010 1:01pm
howdy magix, doc and all , intersting study since one of our skpye chats magix , seems london dont like missing out on any of the price action , green candles represent london session pa , doesnt seem like price goes very far without them bringing it back even for a touch if they missed any of the price action somewhere , not sure yet how useful knowing this is yet but quite interesting anyway , dont know if you seen it cloggs and I am not into predicting where price will go but left a chart for you back a ways yesterday alluding to the gbp likeing the 272 and 618 fib extension levels lol , just made the 272 before mkt closed , anyhow nice seeing chat about trading carry on lol
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  • #234,044
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:02pm Jun 26, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting cloggie
I already run a group on the London break, something I do most summers and winters when it gets quiet a bit. I like posting some more general ideas here and keeping some of the noobs out of silly trades.

A dedicated room takes lots of commitment, we start ours at 0700 and it peters out a bit during the latter part of the morning. Our goal is to catch the break of London and the reversal, then the guys tend to do their own thing in the afternoon till London close.
Oh yea it will take a lot of time. never mind lol
  • #234,045
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:04pm Jun 26, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting digger1
howdy magix, doc and all , intersting study since one of our skpye chats magix , seems london dont like missing out on any of the price action , green candles represent london session pa , doesnt seem like price goes very far without them bringing it back even for a touch if they missed any of the price action somewhere , not sure yet how useful knowing this is yet but quite interesting anyway , dont know if you seen it cloggs and I am not into predicting where price will go but left a chart for you back a ways yesterday alluding to the gbp likeing...

My general layout for a day's trading cable is a move on the LO, a consolidation then either a reversal or at times a continuation on the break followed by NY setting the day's hi/lo and TY bringing it back. That is the start of my London breakout trading, just a matter of identifying the break up or down, find the consolidation and determine whether it goes back or continues, wait for NY to open to set a new hi/lo and pick some more out of the meandering till NY closes, look at TY open, set a trade for the reversal get some sleep and start again at the next LO.
  • #234,046
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:06pm Jun 26, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting Forextrader4
Oh yea it will take a lot of time. never mind lol

It does, I usually start my day at 0600 for the prep work, watch the Franky open take a short term trade, watch the London open, take my first longer term trade for the day and wait for the consolidation. That takes a lot of messages back and forth with charts, templates and setups.

So yes it takes a good 6 hours during the start of the day. But I like doing it as I like posting here, it sharpens your thinking. Sometimes I realise that my reasoning is not quite clear when you try to write it down and explain to someone else.

Once you write it down, you can't take it away so you make sure you are confident in your convictions.
  • #234,047
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:06pm Jun 26, 2010 1:06pm
Hi all,

Any chances of gap down opening?? I've some open positions short, which i thought to hedge before market closes, but couldn do that due to some system problem...!

Pipa
  • #234,048
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:13pm Jun 26, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting Hawki trader
Hi Im one of those who has been hanging out in here for about 6 months.
I'm still hanging on to my account, & learning from those in here Cloggie,Magix,forextrader4 & others. I dont feel confident enough on posting charts & wouldnt like anyone to follow me. But I read,learn & its good for me to see that sometimes my charts & thoughts are similar to some on here.
Thanks Magix for your thread, & thanks Cloggie for all your wise words, especially the detailed posts given today.
One day I may be able to post some more!!

Julie

Posting charts will help you build that confidence and will get you used to the critisism, at times it is easier to get slagged of in here then to lose money out of your account.
  • #234,049
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:26pm Jun 26, 2010 1:26pm
OK, let's see if Ghana can beat the States.
  • #234,050
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:26pm Jun 26, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting cloggie
Posting charts will help you build that confidence and will get you used to the critisism, at times it is easier to get slagged of in here then to lose money out of your account.

Hi cloggie,

I hope you could give me some feedback on this view if i am not right.


Oke here first the fundamental reason why i also see this as a short. But not a trend downtrend comeback so be cautious.( that's how i see it)

I start with why i think this whole bull move was here.

(bull move.

-Private despite jobs being filled despite cut in public sector.
-Inflation posing a threat for higher rates but economy situation not yet recovered.
-Sentiment is changing as market has a slight recovery according some numbers.
-Profit taking from short possitions.(short covering) but sentiment still bearish

Oke why i think this bear move will contineu.

-Budget reports a.k.a Austerity program planned increase taxes the us goverment is weighing on the pound.
-Cot show net positioning still short.
-Option risk revarsals negative gbp/usd.
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  • #234,051
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:29pm Jun 26, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Hi cloggie,

I hope you could give me some feedback on this view if i am not right.


Oke here first the fundamental reason why i also see this as a short. But not a trend downtrend comeback so be cautious.( that's how i see it)

I start with why i think this whole bull move was here.

(bull move.

-Private despite jobs being filled despite cut in public sector.
-Inflation posing a threat for higher rates but economy situation not yet recovered.
-Sentiment is changing as market has a slight recovery according some numbers.
-Profit taking from...

I am watching the footy, but the post from last night, quoted below explains some of my thinking about the fundamentals:


Perfect, thanks. Look at that yield curve, you can see where the spread has tightened already, if that continues we have seen the low in Sterling. Now it is just a question of whether the BOE will try to manipulate that curve so that Sterling can rise and the UK can export itself out of the recession, a very likely scenario with all the measures that Cameron is trying to put into place including dropping the CT down to 24. He did not take any measures increasing the tax burden of the highest earners and gave the financial industry a present of 4% less tax, that only means that the UK is showing it is open for business and could be better positioned to grow out of this recession, especially compared to the rest of Europe. If all the holes in the Swiss cheese line up for the UK here we could see our biggest percentage growth over the next 4 years, all we need is Sterling going up and the Sterlng yield curve to continue falling. Luckily the UK has a majority of its debt in long term debt that was issued before all this started and if we can get our spreads down over the next 2 years most of the short term debt will be refinanced at favourable rates too, all we need now is Sterling to follow suit.

This is a bit of a rambling for a late night opinion, I am going to dig a bit deeper into this over the weekend, enjoying our hottest weekend of the year here, but all the little snippets of info that has come to light in the last few weeks do look good once you line them all up. This week we had the first vote in favor of a rate hike, so if the BOE follows up on this and give us a surprise hike in the next 3 months or so, especially before summer recess is over couple that with reduction of the 2-10yr spread down to sub 200 bps we can see Sterling back above 1.6 very shortly, lets be honest we would be a lot more attractive in the UK compared to the EU, it would also take care of the exposure to high risk low yielding euro denominated instruments for the UK banks, all in all a win-win situation for the economy, the BOE and Sterling. Japan tried this and it took them 12 years, but their debt was far greater then ours and still is. This little scenario would take care of the target 2% also for the first time in almost 2 years. Cameron offering RPI instead of CPI may also have some ulterior motives if this whole plan plays out.

OK, this is a lot of little holes in the Swiss cheese that need cleaning up a bit and some more research and thinking over the weekend, but at least you are getting the jist of my thinking and analysis here so far based on various little pieces of info. The whole scenario depends on how "active" the BOE wants to be, of course the FSA having been just about abolished this week increasing the BOE's power and regulatory control over the bank and its financial risk helps too. Another little snippet in the report was the level of bank deposits with the BOE during the height of the crisis of 350bn, all long since returned, but it shows the willingness of the BOE to play a role as last resort for the banking industry to ringfence bank capital and deposits, another little snippet.

OF course the biggest immediate benefit will be the structural debt will reduce as long as the spread tightens, that is significant. It will not reduce the overal debt but will take care of the structural debt a lot quicker, look for an adjustment again in next months report based on these numbers. A faster increase of the VAT rise would take care of the cyclical deficit quicker but the payfreezes of civil pay helps with that too. So if all these line up we can see a reduction of the total debt, a reduction of the structural debt and a flattening of the cyclical debt.

OK, I am done now or else I will think about this all night.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=233973

There has been a significant tightening of the spreads of the Gilts in the last week and we may well have turned the corner. The above was written down rather quickly and will need lots more research so I can add some meat to the bones, but I do feel that the gist of the above analysis is now valid.

Now this is purely fundamental, I am planning on spending some time tomorrow on the techie side of this.
  • #234,052
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:31pm Jun 26, 2010 1:31pm
Hello all,

last 4 pages of posts are very informativ.
Nice read and really helpful.
Thank´s to all senoir traders for offering your time to us newbies.
Special thank´s to cloggie and kill, for the detailed
explanation of BOE´s finacial stability report
(i only read the key points summery, as my english is way to bad for understanding such technical economy report).
Next tue we have emergency budget release,
could this be a big mover for the pound?

Have a nice weekend and good luck for next week...
  • #234,053
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:33pm Jun 26, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting dag777
Hello all,

last 4 pages of posts are very informativ.
Nice read and really helpful.
Thank´s to all senoir traders for offering your time to us newbies.
Special thank´s to cloggie and kill, for the detailed
explanation of BOE´s finacial stability report
(i only read the key points summery, as my english is way to bad for understanding such technical economy report).
Next tue we have emergency budget release,
could this be a big mover for the pound?

Have a nice weekend and good luck for next week...

Emergency budget was last week, they are voting over it now.
  • #234,054
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:37pm Jun 26, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting cloggie
OK, let's see if Ghana can beat the States.

Well, they are of to a good start.
  • #234,055
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:47pm Jun 26, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting digger1
howdy magix, doc and all , intersting study since one of our skpye chats magix , seems london dont like missing out on any of the price action , green candles represent london session pa , doesnt seem like price goes very far without them bringing it back even for a touch if they missed any of the price action somewhere , not sure yet how useful knowing this is yet but quite interesting anyway , dont know if you seen it cloggs and I am not into predicting where price will go but left a chart for you back a ways yesterday alluding to the gbp likeing...
Pretty kewl to have a new toy to play with dig...That isessions indicator works to show me the different trade sessions, and one of the things that I have always loved is how London will typically pick up where she left off and continue until she's damn well finished!...works good until it doesn't. Not gunna dis the gals here...but sometimes figuring out cable is as tough as figuring out what goes on in the mind of a woman....

I had posted my daily target back on the 23rd...given the H4 confirmation and play through but even at this...the last time we attempted fell greatly short because of what I believe the GBP losing strength on Dragon, not wanting to confirm for higher highs...the weakness took cable out of confirmation and sent her on a new journey, exploring new depths for the year....

So, what does the dragon have to say?

Check it out the daily first...Once we got to the 200EMA, there wasn't enough strength to carry this bride accross the threshold and into daily confirmation....so, each failed attempt triggered a new short side....

Have a look at the H4 chart...The H4 chart is looking a lot like the daily from past. We hold in an aread around the 200EMA, never seeing a true confirmation for possible higher highs.

What does that have to do with cable...well, strength of the GBP IMO should be taken accross the board...Just because one currency gains strength doesn't necessarily mean that all others will fail, but...The last time we confirmed to daily long, Dragon lost support on the daily, and the bulls took a big beat down...so, I am always watching the relation.

My forecasted cable chart with target here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=233484
Current below the Dragons, same forecasted range, but with the extra few days worth of play.

1. Confirmed for longer target
2. Failed on playing above the trigger line
3. Confirmed short side
4. Played through confirmation, trigger on trend.

What does this all mean???
Same as always, if price goes up, buy...if price goes down, sell...

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #234,056
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:48pm Jun 26, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting cloggie
Emergency budget was last week, they are voting over it now.

ah, o.k.
i was totally wrong by looking at an old calendar, painful

also back to the soccer, Ghana is leading, cool
  • #234,057
  • Jun 26, 2010 2:13pm Jun 26, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting dag777
ah, o.k.
i was totally wrong by looking at an old calendar, painful

also back to the soccer, Ghana is leading, cool

looking now at the actual calendar.
the most important news next week is the final GDP.
up or down revisions will move the pound, (i think).
0.3% was a very moderate growth for last quarter.
  • #234,058
  • Jun 26, 2010 2:16pm Jun 26, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting dag777
looking now at the actual calendar.
the most important news next week is the final GDP.
up or down revisions will move the pound, (i think).
0.3% was a very moderate growth for last quarter.

Sorry again for correcting you, but it is only a revision. The biggies next week are the CB, the PMI, the ADP and the NFP.

But Ghana is doing well.
  • #234,059
  • Jun 26, 2010 2:23pm Jun 26, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting cloggie
Sorry again for correcting you, but it is only a revision. The biggies next week are the CB, the PMI, the ADP and the NFP.

But Ghana is doing well.
cloggie, it´s an honor for me to be corrected by you.
yes, nfp for sure the real biggie next week.
But with Ghana i was right ,
wish them the quarter final
  • #234,060
  • Jun 26, 2010 2:25pm Jun 26, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting dag777
cloggie, it´s an honor for me to be corrected by you.
yes, nfp for sure the real biggie next week.
But with Ghana i was right ,
wish them the quarter final

No worries, now if they really butchered up the last numbers to make it look good for the election you may have a case, so yes by all means trade it carefully. Let's be honest, you gotta take some of these numbers with a truckload of salt. Look at the FOMC meetings, why do they bother even showing up, it is just a cut and paste job on each report and we have to struggle to find a meaning behind one word changing, guess it keeps us on our toes.
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