Probability Professor
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #234,021
- Jun 26, 2010 10:38am Jun 26, 2010 10:38am
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: A witty saying proves nothing. | 1,178 Posts
- #234,022
- Jun 26, 2010 10:39am Jun 26, 2010 10:39am
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: A witty saying proves nothing. | 1,178 Posts
Probability Professor
- #234,023
- Edited 11:05am Jun 26, 2010 10:54am | Edited 11:05am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 15,211 Posts
Thanks a lot. What you say makes perfect sense, but it's so simple that like you said, we just have to think we are the ones who are smarter than the rest. I have to practice your "idiot" trading, I guess I will be much smarter that way... But it's not easy to do it, although it's so simple, the damn finger just wants to press SELL or BUY!
To put it in a different perspective, the price is the net result of 100's even 1,000's of traders convictions and thoughts to what is reasonable. So if 400 traders think the price is going down and 600 traders think the price is going up and they all trade the same lot at the same time we are going up, now how can you design an indy to predict that. And once the price goes up what makes you think that some of those 400 that were convinced we were going to go down don't reverse their positions, and secondly what makes you think that some of those 600 that thought the price was going up are now not adding to their position because their thought was validated. Even HFT's that once a direction take place will increase their positions in the directions of the move.
Now when a price stalls and reverses it means that some of those 600 are happy with the profits they have and take it off the table, some of those 400 that got out and reversed are now seeing a confirmation of their original thinking and reverse again.
That's what trading is, now you tell me how you can design an indy to reflect the collective thought of the masses?
Would it not be lots easier just to follow the herd? Takes no thinking, takes no guts, no need to be clever, no need to outwit everybody else out there, just follow the herd, nice and simple. And the faster it moves, the larger your trade size should be, that is the key to success. So if you see a trend up and a large spike in the direction of the move it is actually a signal to increase you lot size. It means that more of the counterthinkers are actually joining the herd, or that some of the trendsetters are actually increasing their positions.
I know that this is contrary to your thinking in every day life, because you think for yourself. Trading is trying to ignore the thinking because you are trying to figure out how 1,000's of us think and you are not equipped to do that.
In every day life, your thinking has a direct result on your action and your future, in trading your thinking has nothing to do with price. It is the thinking of the masses that set the price and the direction.
And that is why you see such big spikes during the news, because all of a sudden we all think the same at least for a little bit and then slowly it sinks in that we are either all right or all wrong, some of us are a little stubborn and get stopped out while the rest just gets on with the earlier trend.
Click on the paperclip on top of the thread that will show you all attachments posted here. Click on hide images and you can see all the files.
tq boss...
and also tq for giving advise to newbie like me...
lot much to learn from you...
keep posting boss...love your posting...
Revesal Trader
- #234,025
- Jun 26, 2010 11:46am Jun 26, 2010 11:46am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
i took a short at 5044 for a quick scalp... then the market jumped another 30 pips taking me out... unfortunate..
I applaud your bravery.
Not for taking a trade against the trend, for admitting this mistake in open.
During peak hours you can see some 200+ people watching this thread, but always only the same fistful of people with something to say.
Perhaps some are apprehensive about throwing in a comment or chart, maybe some just show up for viewing the charts and calls....maybe even some just for comic relief....who knows.
Taking a hit in market or making a bad trade doesn't make you an exclusive by any stretch of the imagination...it happens to the best of us, and we all got our start someplace...but here is where you are going to grow....
You are not fooling yourself into thinking that you made a great play and just didn't wait it out. You are trying to define yourself as a trader dependent on a shorter time frame....you have admitted your mistakes, are looking to correct them and move on.
The comments directed towards you are because you had the brass to stand up and say..."Yeah, kinda shit the sheets on that one", and gave a good fella like Brother Clogs an open invite not only to respond to you, but so many others that did the same, to comment on unsafe trade practices and fair market assessment.
I know at times we can come off as sounding a little harsh, but a lot of the senior traders here in the cable thread would rather us have you think we are pricks then to throw your money blindly into market only to have your ass consistently handed to you.
Keep up the grind, the pay off is well worth the wait in the end.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
- #234,027
- Jun 26, 2010 11:57am Jun 26, 2010 11:57am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,841 Posts
I applaud your bravery.
Not for taking a trade against the trend, for admitting this mistake in open.
During peak hours you can see some 200+ people watching this thread, but always only the same fistful of people with something to say.
Perhaps some are apprehensive about throwing in a comment or chart, maybe some just show up for viewing the charts and calls....maybe even some just for comic relief....who knows.
Taking a hit in market or making a bad trade doesn't make you an exclusive by any stretch of the imagination...it happens...
i see no shame in being wrong... i hurt loosing money. but thats the name of the game... I personally think its important to speak up and admit when you are wrong, people will help you find why and that can help you to correct yourself... its no good just saying i was right and disappear when you are wrong - you're just deluding yourself.
These forums are fantastic in learning from others, not just what people are seeing but also their psychology... Cloggie's last post laid out a description of the market perfectly i wish i had read that a year ago... i know this is how the market works but the more i tell myself, the quicker i'll adapt:
To put it in a different perspective, the price is the net result of 100's even 1,000's of traders convictions and thoughts to what is reasonable. So if 400 traders think the price is going down and 600 traders think the price is going up and they all trade the same lot at the same time we are going up, now how can you design an indy to predict that. And once the price goes up what makes you think that some of those 400 that were convinced we were going to go down don't reverse their positions, and secondly what makes you think that some of those 600 that thought the price was going up are now not adding to their position because their thought was validated. Even HFT's that once a direction take place will increase their positions in the directions of the move.
Now when a price stalls and reverses it means that some of those 600 are happy with the profits they have and take it off the table, some of those 400 that got out and reversed are now seeing a confirmation of their original thinking and reverse again.
That's what trading is, now you tell me how you can design an indy to reflect the collective thought of the masses?
Would it not be lots easier just to follow the herd? Takes no thinking, takes no guts, no need to be clever, no need to outwit everybody else out there, just follow the herd, nice and simple. And the faster it moves, the larger your trade size should be, that is the key to success.
EDIT: @Magix, I don't plan to give up by any means... I hold a full time job and will continue as i have yet a long long way to go... but i appreciate the comments by all of you... the more people i interactive with in this market, the better i feel about it.
- #234,029
- Jun 26, 2010 12:30pm Jun 26, 2010 12:30pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts
- #234,030
- Jun 26, 2010 12:34pm Jun 26, 2010 12:34pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
- #234,031
- Jun 26, 2010 12:35pm Jun 26, 2010 12:35pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
- #234,033
- Jun 26, 2010 12:43pm Jun 26, 2010 12:43pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
- #234,036
- Jun 26, 2010 12:48pm Jun 26, 2010 12:48pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts
- #234,037
- Jun 26, 2010 12:48pm Jun 26, 2010 12:48pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
There are a few of us that already chat group style in chat...and to be honest, I gotta opt out of anymore.
A good time had by all to be sure, but responding here is a little easier to manage and not feel married to.
Good luck with your group though.
- #234,039
- Jun 26, 2010 12:51pm Jun 26, 2010 12:51pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!