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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #234,001
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:00am Jun 26, 2010 8:00am
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Hi,
Does anyone agree cable may go up to 1.9050 area? or will continue bearish when the market open on monday?
i think it will go up to 1.5500 for the first target ,for this trade the stop is below 1.4800 . i have a buy at 1.4850 my stop is 1.4780.
  • #234,002
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:05am Jun 26, 2010 8:05am
Quoting 3211
i think it will go up to 1.5500 for the first target ,for this trade the stop is below 1.4800 . i have a buy at 1.4850 my stop is 1.4780.

Pay attention in the back please, you are quoting a post from 4 years ago. Do keep up.
  • #234,003
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:39am Jun 26, 2010 8:39am
Quoting cloggie
Pay attention in the back please, you are quoting a post from 4 years ago. Do keep up.
without wanting to appear an arse licker...i'm reading as fast as i can...Given up on taking the wallpaper off the hallway.Printing your posts and re-papering instead.Seriously thanx for keeping the balance right.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #234,004
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:40am Jun 26, 2010 8:40am
Quoting cloggie
No disrepect intended and sorry for singling you out, but what makes you think you can call the top of a move exactly? Why short at 5044? If you were so good at trading that you could pick that as the exact reversal you should get your CV to GS and demand an 8 figure salary a year, they have been looking for a guy like you for over 100 years........ OR call Gulfstream in Savannah and order the next 650, it should only take you a couple of weeks to pay for it.

My point is though and most traders would agree with this, that a price of a currency...

it wasn't for a reversal.. it was for scalping... there was slight consolidation at the 5050 level so only planned to scalp... 5050 level was also r3 on my charts.. though i love your last paragraph... i'm saving that to a text file
  • #234,005
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:42am Jun 26, 2010 8:42am
Quoting jaylovin
it wasn't for a reversal.. it was for scalping... there was slight consolidation at the 5050 level so only planned to scalp... 5050 level was also r3 on my charts.. though i love your last paragraph... i'm saving that to a text file
Ok so you are a scalper and you see a lovely confirmed move up would it not be lots safer and easier to scalp in the direction of the move instead of trying to become a contrarian trader? What direction would have given you a greater chance of success? Scalping of the TL and the 25ma or again trying to predict tops and scalpin to the bottom? Once you see a move like this just keep scalping all the dips in the direction of the move on the M5, using your tick charts and M1 for long entries and getting out on each resistance forming on the M1/5, there would have been 500 pips worth of scalping trades on the move up.

Now be honest with yourself and look back on that move on the M5, where would your opportunities have been? I know I keep singling you out, but you need a change of mindset, once a price goes, just keep buying the damn thing, don't be scared of it reversing, the probability of it continuing is far greater.
  • #234,006
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:45am Jun 26, 2010 8:45am
Quoting cloggie
Ok so you are a scalper and you see a lovely confirmed move up would it not be lots safer and easier to scalp in the direction of the move instead of trying to become a contrarian trader? What direction would have given you a greater chance of success? Scalping of the TL and the 25ma or again trying to predict tops and scalpin to the bottom?
nope not 'just' a scalper... but tend to scalp bounces.. lesson learnt i guess..
  • #234,007
  • Edited 9:04am Jun 26, 2010 8:48am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting jaylovin
nope not 'just' a scalper... but tend to scalp bounces.. lesson learnt i guess..

This is not about learning a lesson, it is about how the basics of trading works, once a price moves it is easier for it to continue then for it to reverse. It is a lot easier to find traders, as they are generally very simple minded, to say you know what they are on to something lets join them, then to say you know what, what everybody else thinks is wrong and I am going the other way. As a scalper it is pretty mindless just to scalp in the direction of the move, over and over again untill there is a confirmed reversal or until your average wins go down, look at your total percentage success rate of scalping the longs of the dips, once the win percentage start reducing, your probability of further success diminishes and you should then reasses scalping in the long direction, until that happens you should just sit there fat dumb and happy putting on longs all day long for 3-10 pips at a time.

The basic issue with Friday was that the human mind would love to prove that it is right and knows what it is doing by itself, it takes pride in finding a little nugget. A trader should be stupid and have no feeling or opinions about the price being wrong. It is not easy to follow other's coat tails, it was not your invention, your doing, your thinking you just stupidly follow some other idiot, that's not something to be proud of, that does not show you are different and can think for yourself.

However it is very profitable, just be an idiot, who cares just follow the rest. They go left, don't question it just follow them. I am the biggest idiot out there, I am not going to question them wanting to move the price up, I just follow them; who cares why they do it or for how long, just keep following them and keep moving your stops to the next formed support on M5/15.
  • #234,008
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:33am Jun 26, 2010 9:33am
Quoting cloggie
Ok so you are a scalper and you see a lovely confirmed move up would it not be lots safer and easier to scalp in the direction of the move instead of trying to become a contrarian trader? What direction would have given you a greater chance of success? Scalping of the TL and the 25ma or again trying to predict tops and scalpin to the bottom? Once you see a move like this just keep scalping all the dips in the direction of the move on the M5, using your tick charts and M1 for long entries and getting out on each resistance forming on the M1/5, there...
Well said cloggie, I post a chart of the relevance of the 25 ma on the 5 min chart and my gann system on the 30 min. Simply, trade with the trend buy the pullbacks in an uptrend, sell the rallies in a down trend. No trend stay out and wait for a break out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gutrend25ma.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gutrend.gif Size: 27 KB
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #234,009
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:36am Jun 26, 2010 9:36am
Lol, well to help prove a point some days when something gets going you dont scalp the retraces , here is the move up with the pip counts for the retraces and the up moves. Even as a scalper, helps to know which way you should be scalping , sorry the chart is ugly due to being zoomed out so much, the retraces after this move started and pushed above my averages where not worth taking the risk trading ah but the long entrys added at the average payed well at the end of day lol, as cloggs said when something gets going much better to join than fight it all the way up , cheers all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scalps.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #234,010
  • Edited 9:56am Jun 26, 2010 9:45am | Edited 9:56am
The one thing I notice with new retail traders is that they can spend days, weeks and months with all kinds of different indy's and systems trying to identify where the price turns around, where she tops out and where the reversals take place.

All efforts instead should be directed towards identifying the good old trend on each and every TF. Find a way to identify the direction of price at any given time and follow it. You can use a fast ma, a channel, or just a good old TL. Keep trading in the direction of the trend and see every change of direction as an opportunity to add to your trade. Keep moving your stops to the next time your favourite trend indicator gets touched and keep adding to it. Don't try to pick the reversal point, moving your stops to the right place will take care of that all by itself.

So stop thinking, oh my god it is turning around and start thinking like a trader: great chance to add to my trade, and if I am wrong my stop at support will keep me from making a mistake. Simples.

So a simple system could be to draw a TL on the M15, just make sure that your TL correspond to the general direction of the week and day to increase your probability, once you have seen a couple of higher highs, wait for it to be touched and respected and enter a trade on the M5, wait for the next support to form and set your stop below. Wait for the next dip to touch your TL and add to your trade once rejected moving your stop to below that, rinse and repeat all day long, until you get stopped. Wait for a couple of lower lows, draw you TL or watch your fast ma and do it all over again. Every touch should be seen as a signal to add to your trade not to reverse it. Do this consistently over time and you are on to a winner.

And always know where you major SR's are on the hourly and H4, they got formed for a reason; respect them. And I mean when I say not to be clever, don't try to outsmart the market; you can't. Just sit there fat dumb and happy following the price.
  • #234,011
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:58am Jun 26, 2010 9:58am
Quoting cloggie
The one thing I notice with new retail traders is that they can spend days, weeks and months with all kinds of different indy's and systems trying to identify where the price turns around, where she tops out and where the reversals take place.

All efforts instead should be directed towards identifying the good old trend on each and every TF. Find a way to identify the direction of price at any given time and follow it. You can use a fast ma, a channel, or just a good old TL. Keep trading in the direction of the trend and see every change of direction...

well said
  • #234,012
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:09am Jun 26, 2010 10:09am
Just to talk you guys through a setup for the next few trading days, charts not needed.

Right now we are a major resistance on the H4 formed on the 6th of May, we are also at major resistance of the daily formed by the rejection of the 10th of May and 12th of May. The TL on M15 is still pointing up nicely, so any longs should have their stops at 50326, the next lowest support on M15, and anybody thinking about adding or entering longs should think twice untill both those major resistances from the Daily and H4 have gone.

IF the resistance holds on H4 we are looking at a pullback with a target of the weekly TL I posted on friday of around 5009, now whether that signals a reversal of the current trend depends on the M15, if the weekly Tl gets broken and we see a full bar below we can anticipate a further move down, just draw a new TL of those bars and follow it down, if the TL gets respected we can add to our longs.
  • #234,013
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:11am Jun 26, 2010 10:11am
[quote=cloggie;3831639]
My point is though and most traders would agree with this, that a price of a currency ebbs and flows. After a move it will consolidate forming a range before either continuing or reversing, the safe trader would identify that range and play the breakout to the next range, a gambler would toss a coin and decide to just gamble the reversal with no technical support for that decision. Consistent traders wait for a currency to move, a river to flow to use an analogy and jump on board the move and get out once she starts slowing down a bit, have a look at what she is doing and jump in the next flow, the next confimed move of a breakout of a range. This applies to any TF.


Great point. I really like the quote from Jessie Livermore regarding consolidation:
In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the getnowhere
prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices breaks through the limit in either direction.
  • #234,014
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:12am Jun 26, 2010 10:12am
salam all masta..
i see lot off you use cam...
can i get this cam indi...plz...
i know master kill alredy post it back them..but i cant found it...
kindly post it again plz..
tq..
Revesal Trader
  • #234,015
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:13am Jun 26, 2010 10:13am
Quoting mygoldenpips
salam all masta..
i see lot off you use cam...
can i get this cam indi...plz...
i know master kill alredy post it back them..but i cant found it...
kindly post it again plz..
tq..
Click on the paperclip on top of the thread that will show you all attachments posted here. Click on hide images and you can see all the files.
  • #234,016
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:14am Jun 26, 2010 10:14am
Quoting cloggie
Just to talk you guys through a setup for the next few trading days, charts not needed.

Right now we are a major resistance on the H4 formed on the 6th of May, we are also at major resistance of the daily formed by the rejection of the 10th of May and 12th of May. The TL on M15 is still pointing up nicely, so any longs should have their stops at 50326, the next lowest support on M15, and anybody thinking about adding or entering longs should think twice untill both those major resistances from the Daily and H4 have gone.
Good afternoon Cloggie and thanks again for sharing your thoughts with us. Don't you agree anyway that GBP with this up move is now in overbought territory? Wouldn't be good to consolidate now at 1.4960-1.5030 before continuing the uptrend? I am asking you this because volume after 1.4960 was quite low, I think no one wanted to buy/sell before the meeting this weekend and also Europe was already closed that also made the upswing easier. Monday we can see it go down again to 1.4960 easily don't you think?
  • #234,017
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:21am Jun 26, 2010 10:21am
Quoting Leeson
Good afternoon Cloggie and thanks again for sharing our thoughts with us. Don't you agree anyway that GBP with this up move is now in overbought territory? Woudn't be good to consolidate now at 1.4960-1.5030 before continuing the uptrend? I am asking you this because volume after 1.4960 was quite low, I think no one wanted to buy/sell before the meeting this weekend and that also made the up swing easier. Monday we can see it go down again to 1.4960 easily don't you think?

That's what I said in my post, the resistance now needs to be broken for the uptrend to continue so of course we are going to consolidate here first, H4 resistances don't give up that easily, that's why it is called a resistance. So a pullback would need to follow the scenario I already posted IF the resistance holds. I thought I was pretty clear in that I don't dispute a current trend unless we see full bars below the trend line, it being a drawn TL or a fast MA. I am definately not going to "predict" a level we could drop to, if a TL can be redrawn on the M5/15 signifying a confirmed reversal I just keep selling the tops and touches of that reversal and will end up wherever my stops allow me, whether it is 1.50, 1.496 or 1.490 is absolutely irrelevant in my book, the whole thought of it reversing here is still irrelevant in my opinion until the play with this resistance is played out fully and every attempt to break it is exhausted and a good number of bars are formed in the reverse direction allowing me to draw a new TL and confirming that a change in direction has taken place so that I would reverse my bias.

Traders that know me, know that I don't use oversold/bought, nor any SToch, Macd or any other momentum indicator, I just focus on price and don't care how fast or slow it moves as long as it continues to move in my direction, so I don't put any credence on overbought or oversold, it is 100% irrelevant to me.
  • #234,018
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:26am Jun 26, 2010 10:26am
Thanks Magix! I would like to be put on the list also!
Quoting Magix
Latest and most likely final version of my MTF trade system posted on the MTF thread, or just click HERE.

Chart and explanation HERE.

Enjoy your weekends!

PS...a few minor adjustments have been made since this has been sent off to the beta testers...if you are on the list, get the latest version....my preference is still the charts from ACM....
  • #234,019
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:26am Jun 26, 2010 10:26am
Quoting cloggie
That's what I said in my post, the resistance now needs to be broken for the uptrend to continue so of course we are going to consolidate here first, H4 resistances don't give up that easily, that's why it is called a resistance. So a pullback would need to follow the scenario I already posted IF the resistance holds. I thought I was pretty clear in that I don't dispute a current trend unless we see full bars below the trend line, it being a drawn TL or a fast MA. I am definately not going to "predict" a level we could drop to, if a TL can be...
Thanks a lot. What you say makes perfect sense, but it's so simple that like you said, we just have to think we are the ones who are smarter than the rest. I have to practice your "idiot" trading, I guess I will be much smarter that way... But it's not easy to do it, although it's so simple, the damn finger just wants to press SELL or BUY!
  • #234,020
  • Jun 26, 2010 10:28am Jun 26, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Leeson
Thanks a lot. What you say makes perfect sense, but it's so simple that like you said, we just have to think we are the ones who are smarter than the rest. I have to practice your "idiot" trading, I guess I will be much smarter that way... But it's not easy to do it, although it's so simple, the damn finger just wants to press SELL or BUY!

There is nothing clever about trading. If you spend any time in the City you notice that most traders are as thick as two planks and can't string two words together to form a sentence. And that's why traders have a short shelflife, once they try to figure it out and smart up they are done and replaced. I have seen plenty of traders that leave the City thinking they got it figured out and can trade their own money only to fail miserably and try to get their old job back on the floor.

When I started trading we didn't have any of these fancy all singing and dancing indicators with bells and whistles on, we just kept it simple and played the trends. Look at some of the most succesful traders from way back like Livermore, he didn't have any fancy charting softwares or indy's, he just looked at the price saw it move and followed it. Look at more recent succesful traders such as Soros and Lewis, both great FX traders making billions, especially Lewis, he kept it simple and made a mint.

The markets haven't changed in the last 100 years, or even 20 years. So what worked then still works today, find the trend and follow it. Don't try to predict the reversal, you can never know what 1,000's of other traders out there are thinking, they set this trend and untill all of them change their minds it will continue, all we can do is find places where to be careful and that is where the longer TF SR's come in.

Ours is not to question why, just to do or die.
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