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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #233,961
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:58pm Jun 25, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting cloggie
The financial stability report issued today by the BOE makes for an interesting read:

Visual summary

Full report

Highlights:

Key risks to the UK financial system:

• Counterparty risks among European banks that have direct
exposures to countries facing increased sovereign risks.

• A sustained reversal in investor risk appetite, increasing the
challenge for banks internationally...
that is scary have a great weekend
  • #233,962
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:04pm Jun 25, 2010 5:04pm
Another little hidden gem in the report:

UK banks are at present exposed to three broad classes of risk:

• market risk through a fundamental reappraisal of asset valuations, or a sustained reversal in investor sentiment, adversely affecting risk pricing;

• business risk through the impact of reduced risk-taking, lower business activity and interest rate increases on financial market profits; and

• funding liquidity risk through reduced availability of funds in the interbank, swap and secured money markets arising from heightened sovereign risk concerns.


Also have a look at the Sterling yield curve forecast on page 42 of the report (still don't know how to cut and paste that here) that graph should put end to any doubters that we are heading to 1.6 again. But then again it wouldn't be the first time the BOE gets caught out at the wrong end of a yield curve.
  • #233,963
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:19pm Jun 25, 2010 5:19pm
I must admit I was surprised at this reversal, had two shorts which missed tp of 100 pips by 20 pips, was expecting 1.48 to be 'stamped' before next move.

Refused to believe what I was observing as my bias was down, 1 hour chart clearly shows reversal set up and ended up getting stopped out -100 pips.

The orderly nature observed on the 15 min chart of this move up looks predetermined, whoever was buying knew exactly where they wanted it.

Daily chart shows possible target of 1.5270.

Cheers J
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  • #233,964
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:34pm Jun 25, 2010 5:34pm
50 pip drop last 2 mins before market close at my broker if that tells you anything.
  • #233,965
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:50pm Jun 25, 2010 5:50pm
cloggie is that the one
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  • #233,966
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:53pm Jun 25, 2010 5:53pm
here u go
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  • #233,967
  • Edited 6:26pm Jun 25, 2010 5:53pm | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting kill56
here u go

Perfect, thanks. Look at that yield curve, you can see where the spread has tightened already, if that continues we have seen the low in Sterling. Now it is just a question of whether the BOE will try to manipulate that curve so that Sterling can rise and the UK can export itself out of the recession, a very likely scenario with all the measures that Cameron is trying to put into place including dropping the CT down to 24. He did not take any measures increasing the tax burden of the highest earners and gave the financial industry a present of 4% less tax, that only means that the UK is showing it is open for business and could be better positioned to grow out of this recession, especially compared to the rest of Europe. If all the holes in the Swiss cheese line up for the UK here we could see our biggest percentage growth over the next 4 years, all we need is Sterling going up and the Sterlng yield curve to continue falling. Luckily the UK has a majority of its debt in long term debt that was issued before all this started and if we can get our spreads down over the next 2 years most of the short term debt will be refinanced at favourable rates too, all we need now is Sterling to follow suit.

This is a bit of a rambling for a late night opinion, I am going to dig a bit deeper into this over the weekend, enjoying our hottest weekend of the year here, but all the little snippets of info that has come to light in the last few weeks do look good once you line them all up. This week we had the first vote in favor of a rate hike, so if the BOE follows up on this and give us a surprise hike in the next 3 months or so, especially before summer recess is over couple that with reduction of the 2-10yr spread down to sub 200 bps we can see Sterling back above 1.6 very shortly, lets be honest we would be a lot more attractive in the UK compared to the EU, it would also take care of the exposure to high risk low yielding euro denominated instruments for the UK banks, all in all a win-win situation for the economy, the BOE and Sterling. Japan tried this and it took them 12 years, but their debt was far greater then ours and still is. This little scenario would take care of the target 2% also for the first time in almost 2 years. Cameron offering RPI instead of CPI may also have some ulterior motives if this whole plan plays out.

OK, this is a lot of little holes in the Swiss cheese that need cleaning up a bit and some more research and thinking over the weekend, but at least you are getting the jist of my thinking and analysis here so far based on various little pieces of info. The whole scenario depends on how "active" the BOE wants to be, of course the FSA having been just about abolished this week increasing the BOE's power and regulatory control over the bank and its financial risk helps too. Another little snippet in the report was the level of bank deposits with the BOE during the height of the crisis of 350bn, all long since returned, but it shows the willingness of the BOE to play a role as last resort for the banking industry to ringfence bank capital and deposits, another little snippet.

OF course the biggest immediate benefit will be the structural debt will reduce as long as the spread tightens, that is significant. It will not reduce the overal debt but will take care of the structural debt a lot quicker, look for an adjustment again in next months report based on these numbers. A faster increase of the VAT rise would take care of the cyclical deficit quicker but the payfreezes of civil pay helps with that too. So if all these line up we can see a reduction of the total debt, a reduction of the structural debt and a flattening of the cyclical debt.

OK, I am done now or else I will think about this all night.
  • #233,968
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:26pm Jun 25, 2010 6:26pm
Hey cloggie, your post is too technical and deep for my level, but for what I understand we have a high chance of going much higher, so my best strategy will be closing the short I have on the corrective retracement of this swing we had today, around 1.4960-1.50 and then load some longs, right?
  • #233,969
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:27pm Jun 25, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting Leeson
Hey cloggie, your post is too technical and deep for my level, but for what I understand we have a high chance of going much higher, so my best strategy will be closing the short I have on the corrective retracement of this swing we had today, around 1.4960-1.50 and then load some longs, right?

What I am talking about is long term 3-9 months, and I think it is safe to say that your short will long be closed before then. It is significant though because it will give you a trend to look for and dips to buy giving you a greater probability on your long trades then your short trades.
  • #233,970
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:41pm Jun 25, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting cloggie
What I am talking about is long term 3-9 months, and I think it is safe to say that your short will long be closed before then. It is significant though because it will give you a trend to look for and dips to buy giving you a greater probability on your long trades then your short trades.
Thank you. Have a great weekend.
  • #233,971
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:34pm Jun 25, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
u need to stop listening to people..this is an example of how this thread can destroy yur mind unless u know what yur doing..1.50 is an important area...price certainly would retest it..u would have had a chance to get out at least at breakeven...most likely piercing 1.50..to make people short...but i understand why u did it

this is zero sum..so people need to be caught

look at the weekly and look to see if a inverse head n shoulder can develop..as an example

Quoting nAVIN2007
patience is a virtue..

target reached now looking for extensions
Quoting nAVIN2007
just back from work been waiting for this for weeks..still thou..have months of holding this trade..
Navin...

Your words are not even your words, you are a fortune cookie loaded with quip lines from a beginners guide to day trading, and your logic, though may be everything you have read about in books, isn't of any value in the way you apply it or approach the markets.

There is nothing wrong with a long term hold...I don't consider this trading as much as investing, but if you are going to do it, you still have to be on the right side of the trend.

7 weeks of holding to finally be in profit pipwise, but what have you paid in roll over fees? After a draw down of how many hundreds?

Again, the long term logic, would be to have been on the right side of the trade. Holding for 3 weeks to prosper down and then holding for 3 weeks on the ride back up is a long term logic.

Playing the trend.

This is the part of trading I don't think you quite get. You are now willing to hold into months....Well, if and when we get to the 200EMA on the daily, current price approx 1.5317, I will be expecting a full on reversal. How far down we go, nobody knows, but I would full well imagine it will put your hold underwater again, which could be for months.

Your words taken in the context that you use them are harmful to the people that are new to market. I tried to caution you about this before, when you had people convinced that holding a short into a market that grew 1000 pips, was something that you felt comfortable with.

This my friend I can gaurntee has washed more people out of markets then you realize.

There are a quite a few of us that not only exercize caution with our trading, back up our market movements with charting and full on advise others to play in a similar fashion. There are a few members from today who took market hits for no reason other then theres always got to be one clown spouting bullshit that leads them into these plays.

When you come round and follow it up with one of your "Stick to your guns", speeches, it is of no value or relevance. Yes, you used to not follow your targets and yes you used to take a bath on not being able to follow the trends...so, really, not much has changed only you are apparently willing to hold a 700 pip loss to gain 300 off top?

Really?

When we try to work with others in here, if I am the only one to say this....

Keep your nose out of it. It really is quite nice when those of us that spend time to assist others, don't have to try and justify our words of advice through yours. You are only around when you are in the green, which, thankfully hasn't been a whole lot this year, but when you come in, try and think of the message that you are putting out there...Words of caution, proper money management, and safe trading...if your message is outside of this, try and keep in mind how many others your words have already busted and will bust an account taking your same -700 pip drawdown' to finally reach a target 7 weeks later, following your wisdom.

I really don't need a retort on your market wisdom, nor a charting lesson, I really do fine on my own. I don't need you to try and justify logic of your trades, because none exists.

Think before you speak.

And quit with the Zero Sum thing...our words of caution are so that people don't turn their accounts into your zero sum game.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #233,972
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:47pm Jun 25, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting Magix
Navin...

Your words are not even your words, you are a fortune cookie loaded with quip lines from a beginners guide to day trading, and your logic, though may be everything you have read about in books, isn't of any value in the way you apply it or approach the markets.

There is nothing wrong with a long term hold...I don't consider this trading as much as investing, but if you are going to do it, you still have to be on the right side of the trend.

7 weeks of holding to finally be in profit pipwise, but what have you paid in roll over fees?...
Magix you couldn't have said it any better. I also noticed a few people in this thread that just don't care about others that are trying to learn and make money, and these people's comments are completely useless. Lol i was really shocked when they did that to me. The few people here that talk none sense are NOT real traders and here simply for entertainment. I think i will go ahead and work on opening a Skype chatroom where I will be calling out my trades on all pairs as i did here in this thread for gbp/usd and have only respectful people like you and people that are serious about learning and making REAL money not wasting time.
  • #233,973
  • Jun 25, 2010 9:35pm Jun 25, 2010 9:35pm
Quoting PipVip
I always have emotions. Anything said otherwise is untrue.
everyone have emotions. difference between failure & success in this business is managing them.
Thank You
  • #233,974
  • Edited 10:54pm Jun 25, 2010 10:48pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting Forextrader4
Magix you couldn't have said it any better. I also noticed a few people in this thread that just don't care about others that are trying to learn and make money, and these people's comments are completely useless. Lol i was really shocked when they did that to me. The few people here that talk none sense are NOT real traders and here simply for entertainment. I think i will go ahead and work on opening a Skype chatroom where I will be calling out my trades on all pairs as i did here in this thread for gbp/usd and have only respectful people like...
I am fairly new to reading this thread but I agree with what you are saying. There are a handful of people that post here that show a good knowledge of forex and the desire to help people. This is my list, I may be missing some. Forextrader4, Magix, Kill, Cloggie, Wormboy. Sorry to some I may have missed.

I have been trading for 8 months and started at the basics like you show. Maybe unfortunetly I started out making money from day one, for about 4 days, of course I lost big the next day and I got caught up in thinking I needed a more complicated system and have read and tried every thing I could find thinking there must be a secret.

Thank you all for showing you don't need 10 indicators and 20 trend lines and ema's on a chart to be successful. It's back to the basics for me and I am already making pips again after following your examples of sound fundementals.
  • #233,975
  • Jun 25, 2010 10:58pm Jun 25, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting kill56
is the ema200 our next target for next week or we rerace from here

lets wait and see enjoy the weekend

LETS !
Attached Image
  • #233,976
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:07pm Jun 25, 2010 11:07pm
http://fxdom.ru/uploads/posts/1277286316_gbpusd-h4.gif

MY trading on H4 D1 W1. now I'm looking at 1.54** ? possible recoil is now . wait...
  • #233,977
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:16pm Jun 25, 2010 11:16pm
Latest and most likely final version of my MTF trade system posted on the MTF thread, or just click HERE.

Chart and explanation HERE.

Enjoy your weekends!

PS...a few minor adjustments have been made since this has been sent off to the beta testers...if you are on the list, get the latest version....my preference is still the charts from ACM....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #233,978
  • Edited Jun 26, 2010 12:03am Jun 25, 2010 11:51pm | Edited Jun 26, 2010 12:03am
Quoting Magix
Latest and most likely final version of my MTF trade system posted on the MTF thread, or just click HERE.

Chart and explanation HERE.

Enjoy your weekends!

PS...a few minor adjustments have been made since this has been sent off to the beta testers...if you are on the list, get the latest version....my preference is still the charts from ACM....
thank you for help and may be my information will help to you
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  • #233,979
  • Jun 26, 2010 12:05am Jun 26, 2010 12:05am
look ?
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  • #233,980
  • Jun 26, 2010 12:50am Jun 26, 2010 12:50am
Quoting Magix
Navin...

Your words are not even your words, you are a fortune cookie loaded with quip lines from a beginners guide to day trading, and your logic, though may be everything you have read about in books, isn't of any value in the way you apply it or approach the markets.

There is nothing wrong with a long term hold...I don't consider this trading as much as investing, but if you are going to do it, you still have to be on the right side of the trend.

7 weeks of holding to finally be in profit pipwise, but what have you paid in roll over fees?...
well what i said is what i believe..i trade monthly charts and it require huge stops..u scalp thats the only difference..u can say whatever u want..it cant change the fact that i posted a chart i said what it will do and it did it exactly..if any1 took notice of what i wrote..they made pips

im not interested in proving anything

u obviously cant read a chart long term..
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