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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #381
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:38am Jun 24, 2010 4:38am
Quoting bez3000
It would tell me that the high volume was selling volume rather than buying volume. Because if it was buying volume the next bar would have gone higher? That sounds good to me!
If thats right i guess its just a case of reading the bars before it as well. Think i will plot up in the sun and have a read of ther book
Thanks Dan, can you post more charts as you take trades this is the best way for me to learn.
You're almost there... that would be the case if the bar in questions was to close below 50% of it's total spread (forming something like a pin bar - the more pin like the better).

In the case I was indicating that the buying climax was professional money pushing prices up but were not interested in prices higher than they have already pushed it - a shakeout; trapping the herd into thinking we are going up when in fact the pros are about to short!

Regards,

Dan
  • #382
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:49am Jun 24, 2010 5:49am
have attempted to correlate the key price and volume bars i was watching and why i would have taken that trade.

note- this is all MY perception

starting from left,

1st price and volume bar - high range price bar, and high volume bar, price closing bearish
2nd price and volume bar - similar, here the herd is jumping into the sell
3rd - the aha bar for me. price bar closes towards the low. volume bar still quite high. for me that indicates BUYERS are coming in now.
4th bar - again reasonably high volume, but price bar is low range and closed in +ve. to me it indicates buyers are consolidating.

would have taken trade on break of 4th bar, long.by now would have beena 1:3 trade.

again, i am a total novice and i could be interpreting wrong and the trade would have worked due to fool's luck.



Quoting bez3000
What were the reasons for this trade? sorry abit slow on the uptake.
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  • #383
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:10am Jun 24, 2010 6:10am
Quoting coolshades
have attempted to correlate the key price and volume bars i was watching and why i would have taken that trade.

note- this is all MY perception

starting from left,

1st price and volume bar - high range price bar, and high volume bar, price closing bearish
2nd price and volume bar - similar, here the herd is jumping into the sell
3rd - the aha bar for me. price bar closes towards the low. volume bar still quite high. for me that indicates BUYERS are coming in now.
4th bar - again reasonably high volume, but price bar is low range and closed...
Hi Coolshades,

Interesting analysis... I think I would agree generally... first two bars show heavy selling pressure and then the third bar is an inverted hammer which as you pointed out is a bullish signal then followed by the fourth bar with a positive close.

I didn't take the trade myself because I'm not too familiar with trading inverted hammer's... not enough experience on that! If I had taken that trade I think it would have been safer to take the break of the high of the inverted hammer rather than the fourth bar... reason being that the break of the I/H would have taken you beyond the 1.4950 potential resistance whereas the break of the fourth bar would have straight into this level... just a rule of mine. As it happens the trade would have turned out well anyway!

Regards,

Dan
  • #384
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:21am Jun 24, 2010 6:21am
yes, i keep wondering whether i really require volume or just play Pin Bars and Engulfing bars in conjunction with pivots.

anyway, nothing else looks promising today. i am STILL not in any long term trade...

Quoting DanUK
Hi Coolshades,

Interesting analysis... I think I would agree generally... first two bars show heavy selling pressure and then the third bar is an inverted hammer which as you pointed out is a bullish signal then followed by the fourth bar with a positive close.

I didn't take the trade myself because I'm not too familiar with trading inverted hammer's... not enough experience on that! If I had taken that trade I think it would have been safer to take the break of the high of the inverted hammer rather than the fourth bar... reason being that...
  • #385
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:56am Jun 24, 2010 7:56am
Quoting coolshades
yes, i keep wondering whether i really require volume or just play Pin Bars and Engulfing bars in conjunction with pivots.
Hi Coolshades,

Yep - nothing wrong with that; when I used to do a little intraday playing I didn't use volume at all - it's only something I am looking at at the moment as an addition to it! But, good PA setups at pivots and psych levels is a great strategy on it's own - even more so when you have a good trend on your side!

Regards,

Dan
  • #386
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:44pm Jun 24, 2010 12:44pm
Hi guys,

Only one trade for today... EUR/USD:

1. Double bottom at 1.2260 followed by gradual buying and then...

2. Buying volume up through the daily pivot and 1.2300 psych level

3. Selling volume pushes price back down below 1.2300 but doesn't touch the daily pivot, this was followed by an up bar which I bought the break of the high at 1.2316, stop at 1.2292 and target at R1 1.2365 for a 1:2 trade.
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  • #387
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:06pm Jun 24, 2010 2:06pm
I was wondering if anyone would take that double bottom. The pattern was so obvious. Was in meetings.


Commander at 2%. a day you will be a billionaire in 200 trades.


How quickly do you move your sl to be?

Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Only one trade for today... EUR/USD:

1. Double bottom at 1.2260 followed by gradual buying and then...

2. Buying volume up through the daily pivot and 1.2300 psych level

3. Selling volume pushes price back down below 1.2300 but doesn't touch the daily pivot, this was followed by an up bar which I bought the break of the high at 1.2316, stop at 1.2292 and target at R1 1.2365 for a 1:2 trade.
  • #388
  • Jun 24, 2010 3:26pm Jun 24, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting coolshades
Commander at 2%. a day you will be a billionaire in 200 trades.


How quickly do you move your sl to be?
Really? That sounds appealing, lol! How much money would I have to start off with though!?!

I tend to move my stop to BE once my trade has achieved roughly 1:1 R:R. This is why I tend to look for trades that have a bit of room before the next level of support or resistance.

Regards,

Dan
  • #389
  • Jun 24, 2010 3:34pm Jun 24, 2010 3:34pm
Following on from my last trade... this is another potential setup (although I did not trade it; too late in the day for me to bother):

My last trade completed on a high volume buy up into R1... a potential sign of weakness; although there was no immediate trigger south price did meander back down below R1 and then back up again on a low volume test. Now although my VSA terminology isn't perfect I do believe this is a good signal as it shows "amateur" money trying to continue pushing price up even though the pros no longer have any interest in higher prices (for the time being at least).

A break below these low volume tests would have been a good trade for at least 1:2.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #390
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:13am Jun 25, 2010 4:13am
Nice easy trade this morning on G/U... price action shows possible topping at the blue rectangle followed by high volume selling closing below the daily pivot and 1.4950 - sold the break of this candle down to S1 - not quite a 1:2 trade but pretty close!

There was also a similar setup on EUR/USD but I preferred this one!
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  • #391
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:21am Jun 25, 2010 4:21am
Quoting DanUK
Nice easy trade this morning on G/U... price action shows possible topping at the blue rectangle followed by high volume selling closing below the daily pivot and 1.4950 - sold the break of this candle down to S1 - not quite a 1:2 trade but pretty close!

There was also a similar setup on EUR/USD but I preferred this one!
Hi Dan,

Which pivot indicator do you use?

Regards,
  • #392
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:46am Jun 25, 2010 4:46am
question is, if you are able to monitor intraday, why arent you reviving the trend on h4 or even h1? or are you wanting the thrill?



Quoting DanUK
Nice easy trade this morning on G/U... price action shows possible topping at the blue rectangle followed by high volume selling closing below the daily pivot and 1.4950 - sold the break of this candle down to S1 - not quite a 1:2 trade but pretty close!

There was also a similar setup on EUR/USD but I preferred this one!
  • #393
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:10am Jun 25, 2010 5:10am
Quoting 4Xfactor
Hi Dan,

Which pivot indicator do you use?

Regards,
Hi,

I use FXI Pivots - downloaded from Forex Factory; if you do a search you should be able to find it.

Regards,

Dan
  • #394
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:15am Jun 25, 2010 5:15am
Quoting coolshades
question is, if you are able to monitor intraday, why arent you reviving the trend on h4 or even h1? or are you wanting the thrill?

Hi,

To be honest the main reason is that I wanted to do something that didn't require a commitment to a long term directional bias; even with intraday trend trading you need to do a certain amount of analysis to make sure you actually are following the trend and to make sure that you are not about to trade into a longer time trend.

Intraday day PA & Volume trading off of pivots and psych levels doesn't require so much attention. I note down the levels of interest and I have a vista "gadget" that reports current quotes so that I don't have to keep opening up the charts. Once I see price getting near to one of the levels I am looking at I will open up Metatrader and watch for a trade.

Regards,

Dan
  • #395
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:33am Jun 25, 2010 11:33am
a trade without bothering about volume. 1:2.
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  • #396
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:16pm Jun 25, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting coolshades
a trade without bothering about volume. 1:2.
I missed that one spotted it to late, i did take a eurjpy trade that didn't work out chart below.
Any input into why would be appreciated, maybe its just one of those things?
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  • #397
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:21pm Jun 25, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting coolshades
a trade without bothering about volume. 1:2.
Yep lots of good PA trades around without volume... however I did notice a couple of big selling volume bars (your favourite one... selling climax!) a little before indicating weakness; a great combination. In fact this is one of the best kind of setups that I look for combining VSA and PA for a really high odds trade. One of those a week and you'll be laughing all the way to the bank!

Did you take the trade coolshades? Personally I didn't because I was heading off for an early lunch. I did think about you when I saw it though - that's a bit worrying! Lol!

Regards,

Dan

PS... there was also a second chance to get in if you missed it (like me) a little later.
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  • #398
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:26pm Jun 25, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting bez3000
I missed that one spotted it to late, i did take a eurjpy trade that didn't work out chart below.
Any input into why would be appreciated, maybe its just one of those things?
Yep, I'm afraid that is just one of those things... your trade did in fact work out... you just got stopped out of it early. To be honest though it's not a great looking pin - go for the best setups only and a little bit of volume to add weight to it helps (as in my example of Coolshades EUR/USD setup).

Regards,

Dan
  • #399
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:57pm Jun 25, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting DanUK
PS... there was also a second chance to get in if you missed it (like me) a little later.
Trade complete... should be fairly self explanatory (but will answer questions if not lol!)... right at the end of London so not ideal time for me but the setup and potential were just too appetizing! 1:3 achieved on this one!

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  • #400
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:59pm Jun 25, 2010 12:59pm
i took just the one trade.

i have noticed that there is atleast 1-3 good setups in a day so even if one gets stopped out, there are opportunities to make up.

on the long term trend system, there just arent enough entries so hopefully next week will be better.

Quoting DanUK
Yep lots of good PA trades around without volume... however I did notice a couple of big selling volume bars (your favourite one... selling climax!) a little before indicating weakness; a great combination. In fact this is one of the best kind of setups that I look for combining VSA and PA for a really high odds trade. One of those a week and you'll be laughing all the way to the bank!

Did you take the trade coolshades? Personally I didn't because I was heading off for an early lunch. I did think about you when I saw it though - that's a bit worrying!...
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