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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #341
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:44am Jun 22, 2010 6:44am
yes read about this now.. . i have now found the full tom williamns book. the link that marketscape posted a few days back had only a small portion of the book. this bleeding book is lenghty and quite heavy, so definitely not leisure reading.

commander i note that you are using the volume thingy only to trade in line with higher tf trend? or are you going counter trend too?

Quoting DanUK
Yes I suppose technically it is not a "buying climax" in the typical VSA terms but I think the underlying result is the same... a fake move up that results in lower prices.
  • #342
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:40am Jun 22, 2010 8:40am
i really hate that term. anyway, i had a go at this during lunch hour. unfortunately i chickened out for a grand total of 5 pips. not worth even a big mac. if i had held on, i would be doing good.
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  • #343
  • Jun 22, 2010 10:08am Jun 22, 2010 10:08am
Hi Dan. I took the same short for the same reason. Exited @ 1.47 (+50pips) when PA indicated failed support. Turned out to be correct decision as price went north not long after. I'm finding this VSA stuff kinda fun.
cheers
Mitch

Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Going ok thanks - I had two trades yesterday but both were B/E... I was going to post the charts but then I figured it might be best to start a new journal first.

I have a trade open short G/U too... buying climax shown pushing price up through 1.4750, followed by a move back down with a bearish close - I have a downward bias for the moment so to me this looked like smart money moving price up in order to short.

I sold under the bearish bar marked by the arrow... my stop is now at B/E so it's time to sit back and let the market work it...
  • #344
  • Jun 22, 2010 10:31am Jun 22, 2010 10:31am
Quoting coolshades
i really hate that term. anyway, i had a go at this during lunch hour. unfortunately i chickened out for a grand total of 5 pips. not worth even a big mac. if i had held on, i would be doing good.
Hi,

I don't like the term either!

As it happens I have just closed almost that exact trade... the two bars you circled are actually selling climax bars (I think!!) that was then followed by a bearish bar but didn't manage to close beyond the prior bar. This was then followed by a volume climax up bar - I bought the break of the top of that bar and have just closed at 1.4850 for a 4% gain.

I reckon you have the eye for it as you identified the same trade as me (not that I am any kind of expert)... now you just have to apply some rigid rules to your (intraday) trading.

Regards,

Dan
  • #345
  • Jun 22, 2010 10:34am Jun 22, 2010 10:34am
Quoting MitchOZ
Hi Dan. I took the same short for the same reason. Exited @ 1.47 (+50pips) when PA indicated failed support. Turned out to be correct decision as price went north not long after. I'm finding this VSA stuff kinda fun.
cheers
Mitch
Hi Mitch,

I dabbled with intraday price action trading (without VSA) some years ago and I must admit that I found it fun too! I don't really have enough time (or experience) to follow intraday charts to the extent that I could trade it with a big account (yet!) but as a sideline to my main trading it's a nice little addition.

I used to do it with just PA signals (pin bars etc) but I believe the addition of VSA will add a better degree of understanding to the method.

Regards,

Dan
  • #346
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:17am Jun 22, 2010 11:17am
so you entered on top of that big bull bar? you enter on what break of high/low?

Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I don't like the term either!

As it happens I have just closed almost that exact trade... the two bars you circled are actually selling climax bars (I think!!) that was then followed by a bearish bar but didn't manage to close beyond the prior bar. This was then followed by a volume climax up bar - I bought the break of the top of that bar and have just closed at 1.4850 for a 4% gain.

I reckon you have the eye for it as you identified the same trade as me (not that I am any kind of expert)... now you just have to apply some rigid rules...
  • #347
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:57pm Jun 22, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting coolshades
so you entered on top of that big bull bar? you enter on what break of high/low?
Yes that's right - break of the high. Bear with me as my VSA terminology is not great, I am going largely by the descriptions from the Better Volume indicator... basically that bull bar is a volume climax up bar - often seen at the end of an uptrend; designed to trap people into higher prices whilst smart money are getting ready to sell they are also seen at the beginning of an uptrend... hence break of the high for a buy... should be off of support too (for me at least).

Hope that makes some sense... anyone with a better understanding of VSA feel free to correct me, but I think the basic premise of what I am suggesting is correct!

Regards,

Dan
  • #348
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:08pm Jun 22, 2010 1:08pm
I don't trade VSA setups only - the original intraday strategy I followed did not include volume; I have it as an add on.

I will also trade good PA setups off of S/R levels... as an example this was a potential EUR/USD trade today - I missed it but this is the kind of thing I am looking for:

I have marked a nice looking pin bar off of S1. A little while before this you will see price rejected the S1 level... moved up to 1.2300 and then back down to S1 again. On this occasion the 15m chart produced a nice looking pin. Volume was not significantly high or low so it's a standard PA trade in my eyes. Entry would be the break of the high of the pin. Initial target would the 1.2300 level and profit taken at 1.2310 for a 1:2 trade (or 4% gain for 2% risk if I were to have traded it).

Regards,

Dan
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  • #349
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:56pm Jun 22, 2010 2:56pm
Hi Dan enjoying the intraday stuff. What was the reason for trading at this level?
On your charts you use a pivot indicator and mark round numbers, what other levels are you trading from as your chart has loads more lines on it than mine ?
So if i understand correctly you are looking for PA or high volume of a good level then trade away from the level?
When will you be starting the new thread?

Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Going ok thanks - I had two trades yesterday but both were B/E... I was going to post the charts but then I figured it might be best to start a new journal first.

I have a trade open short G/U too... buying climax shown pushing price up through 1.4750, followed by a move back down with a bearish close - I have a downward bias for the moment so to me this looked like smart money moving price up in order to short.

I sold under the bearish bar marked by the arrow... my stop is now at B/E so it's time to sit back and let the market work it...
  • #350
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:17pm Jun 22, 2010 3:17pm
yesterday pivot points, today round numbers, tomorrow volume, day after MAs, the day after day after RSI.....


Dan will be drowning in indicators before you know it






joking.

Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan enjoying the intraday stuff. What was the reason for trading at this level?
On your charts you use a pivot indicator and mark round numbers, what other levels are you trading from as your chart has loads more lines on it than mine ?
So if i understand correctly you are looking for PA or high volume of a good level then trade away from the level?
When will you be starting the new thread?
  • #351
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:08pm Jun 22, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan enjoying the intraday stuff. What was the reason for trading at this level?
On your charts you use a pivot indicator and mark round numbers, what other levels are you trading from as your chart has loads more lines on it than mine ?
So if i understand correctly you are looking for PA or high volume of a good level then trade away from the level?
When will you be starting the new thread?
That particular chart was the false push up into 1.4750 (round number/psych level).

I'm not sure what other lines you are seeing! I have the pivots and the round numbers - that's about it. In a couple of charts I plotted levels to show entry, stop and exit and that should be explained in the post with the chart. Other than that I don't think there's any other lines to trade from!

Yes generally that is the plan... S/R levels + PA/VSA setups = trade!

I should get on and start the new journal ASAP as I've careered this one off course a bit!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #352
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:11pm Jun 22, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting coolshades
yesterday pivot points, today round numbers, tomorrow volume, day after MAs, the day after day after RSI.....


Dan will be drowning in indicators before you know it






joking.
No!! I've had the temptation to add indy's to PA setups in the past to "enhance" the probabilities but I soon learned that the basic tools are all that are needed!
  • #353
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:15pm Jun 22, 2010 4:15pm
@Coolshades - I forgot to answer this too: you asked about taking trades with the longer term trends; the short answer is no!

The longer answer is I do prefer to trade with the longer term trend but this method being as it is means that I can trade counter-trend (to the long term trend) so long as the setup warrants it. I will of course always be aware of the long term trend so I know when it is likely to affect my intraday trades!

Regards,

Dan
  • #354
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:26pm Jun 22, 2010 6:26pm
Hai sir how can better volume indicator work very well in your MT4 because after i save in my MT4 expert - indicator file this indicator dont have in my list indicator .... can you help me thank you
  • #355
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:11pm Jun 22, 2010 11:11pm
Hi Dan.
Interesting....I have a couple of questions/observations if I may:
1. This was a CT trade. Do you look for any other confluence eg divergence, to help in your decision? My experience indicate pins are notoriously unreliable on CT trades.
2. Had you taken the trade, how (do you think you would you have reacted to the red climax VSA bar which appeared a couple of bars after entry?
I am also trying to incorp PA along with SR and VSA so this is good discussion .
cheers
Mitch
Quoting DanUK
I don't trade VSA setups only - the original intraday strategy I followed did not include volume; I have it as an add on.

I will also trade good PA setups off of S/R levels... as an example this was a potential EUR/USD trade today - I missed it but this is the kind of thing I am looking for:

I have marked a nice looking pin bar off of S1. A little while before this you will see price rejected the S1 level... moved up to 1.2300 and then back down to S1 again. On this occasion the 15m chart produced a nice looking pin. Volume was not significantly...
  • #356
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:00am Jun 23, 2010 2:00am
Quoting za_xc03
Hai sir how can better volume indicator work very well in your MT4 because after i save in my MT4 expert - indicator file this indicator dont have in my list indicator .... can you help me thank you
Hi,

Sorry I don't know the answer to that one. Perhaps some of the guys on Shamus' VSA thread might know more about the indicator.

Regards,

Dan
  • #357
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:06am Jun 23, 2010 2:06am
Quoting MitchOZ
Hi Dan.
Interesting....I have a couple of questions/observations if I may:
1. This was a CT trade. Do you look for any other confluence eg divergence, to help in your decision? My experience indicate pins are notoriously unreliable on CT trades.
2. Had you taken the trade, how (do you think you would you have reacted to the red climax VSA bar which appeared a couple of bars after entry?
I am also trying to incorp PA along with SR and VSA so this is good discussion .
cheers
Mitch
Hi Mitch,

A's to Q's:

1. No, I have used RSI to look for divergence in the past but it's not really a staple of my system. I know what you mean about CT pins but I find that if they are taken in the right place, especially with VSA background info they are quite effective. They have to be good looking pins though.

2. By the time that red climax bar appeared my stop would have been moved to breakeven - then if there had been a big push down (suggesting the move up into 1.2300 was a shakeout or something like that) I would have considered shorting.

Regards,

Dan
  • #358
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:49am Jun 23, 2010 2:49am
Dan would this count as a valid trade:
Entry on green line SL red:
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  • #359
  • Edited 4:23am Jun 23, 2010 3:50am | Edited 4:23am
i took it. got stopped out. it had also closed below R1.
however on further reading i think the previous few bars (low range, low volume, price bars closing in middle to high, a lot of them red bars) was a sign of accumulation.

on the euro, there was a small pin of r1 a few bars back which would have lead to b/e by now. not that i took it.

Quoting bez3000
Dan would this count as a valid trade:
Entry on green line SL red:
  • #360
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:52am Jun 23, 2010 7:52am
Hi guys,

I am by no means an expert so it would be wrong for me to say definitively what was wrong with that trade but... I believe Coolshades has got it right: VSA requires that you watch what is happening on prior bars as well as the current, VSA is not about one bar at a time. In this case I believe the buying volume was in fact indicating strength rather than weakness. I think that understanding the "background" is the tricky part of VSA but it is the part that really makes it work.

That said, I don't think that particular bar (or a similar one that appeared on EUR/USD) was worth trading. In a buying climax I would be looking for the close of price to finish near the top of the bar rather than dropping back down. That said, there is also an "upthrust" bar that would be bearish but that would have had a lower close, below half of the spread of the bar... forming something that looks like a pin bar. This is a good trade setup when it appears under the right conditions.

I could of course very easily be wrong, but that is how I see things!

Regards,

Dan
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