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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #232,501
  • Jun 19, 2010 2:14am Jun 19, 2010 2:14am
How do the folk in here feel about a breach and hold of 4800?
Propelling Cable higher to first test .5000?

Bearish scenario would form rejection @ the same 4800 pushing cable lower to retest 4500.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #232,502
  • Jun 19, 2010 2:14am Jun 19, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Naseri13
Its so interesting that I see you Clairvoyance.
Working with weekly to monthly overbought and oversold areas does require a little tolerance for draw downs, but it can be easy to see if you know what you are looking for...

Simplicity....

A 5EMA price channel and a MACD under standard settings can go along way in telling the future.

A few examples from the 1m to the H4.

See as price breaks out of channel, falls back in, and confirms trigger on the MACD...areas in red circles, sell zones, areas in green circles, buy zones.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #232,503
  • Jun 19, 2010 2:16am Jun 19, 2010 2:16am
I shorted GU @ 1.4830 2 on wednesday and the market closed on the same point. Darn after 2 days 0 pips.
  • #232,504
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:34am Jun 19, 2010 3:34am
Quoting Magix
Always nice to see you add your 2 cents there Nav.

Your spot on analysis surely must be worthy of mention...So, let's have a looksie.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6635


This one, dated May 10th....
I said i feel for them..i feel for any1 giving money to any trader to make them profit..yet u take it personal..but anyway..i cant do anything about that!..

trading is risky and any1 can be on the bad side of a trade..for a fellow trader to give his money to another trader is like saying "i cant do this"..and that is what i feel..and that why i wrote what i wrote"

I glad your doing well

I trade the way i trade..aint changing that either!!..

with regard to your charts posted just now..u do realise that any indicator like stochastic works as the market wasnt rallying..after the event any1 can do..anyway lets see next week if im at dispair
  • #232,505
  • Edited 9:09am Jun 19, 2010 8:39am | Edited 9:09am
as expected, resistance was encountered at the 1.4870 area, which was a confluence of fibonacci levels from two different fib studies, a 78.6% retracement at 1.4877 and a higher level 50% retracement at 1.4864. I was able to take a short right at that area and made around 80 pips into the morning. however the short movement did not follow through into the afternoon, and price ended friday on an upward note, heralding further upwards movement towards possibly the next fibonacci level, 61.8% at D2, 1.5013 which also roughly coincides with a previous high at 1.5053. I expect to see resistance at that level, however that may not provide an end to the bullish trend until the larger 78.6% retracement at D3, 1.5225 which also roughly coincides with a 1.27% fibonacci extension of the lower level fib study at 1.5277. So if the butterfly holds true we can expect to see the uptrend reverse at either D2 or D3. In either case we can expect resistance to kick in on some strength level at either of those price areas.

this is not to say that it couldn't just sell off from here; certainly it could. But with the failure to follow through on yesterday's down move, one would suspect that further upwards momentum is still in play.
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"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #232,506
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:35am Jun 19, 2010 10:35am
hHitch,
Nice post. Thanks for reviving my own fib study skills.
  • #232,507
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:44am Jun 19, 2010 10:44am
1.4800/20 is a strong support that is now been retested as resistance. We are on the way down we are just testing that yellow down and we are on the way down to 1.4300

Quoting hhitch
...this is not to say that it couldn't just sell off from here; certainly it could. But with the failure to follow through on yesterday's down move, one would suspect that further upwards momentum is still in play.
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  • #232,508
  • Jun 19, 2010 11:27am Jun 19, 2010 11:27am
Quoting Galation
I tend to buy in areas which I think are oversold and sell in areas which I perceive to be overbought, and hold the position for months if need be with large stops.

It's interesting hearing you use 5 second candles.
You're a better man than me Charlie Brown.

Quoting Galation
I tend to buy in areas which I think are oversold and sell in areas which I perceive to be overbought, and hold the position for months if need be with large stops.

It's interesting hearing you use 5 second candles.
For those interested:

Individually, with candles / bars... 5 second is too fast and fragmented but
using compression patterns of 9 different ema's (eliminating the candle / bar
and only following the gathering and separating of ema lines) collectively gives
good information, especially for entries.

I was first introduced to candlestick charting 10+ years ago (Tony Golan and
stock trading) and now understand that they are not as reliably 'enlightening'
as Japanese legend would have you believe... especially in the forex. I'm no
expert on anything in this forex / trading world and am now learning more on
simple PA using candles on the 3 - 15m and above tf charts. Though I may win
on a very high % of my trades, I'm one of the majority that lose in big bonehead
(account destroying) chunks due to careless, reckless habits and lack of discipline
and patience... not due to any of the methods I use. One day I may eventually
learn that protecting my capital is more important than any method.

When following compression patterns, I filter out all the distracting candle / bar
by zooming out a few clicks (-) on most all of my charts (especially these lower
tf's) and only have 'lines' (no open, close) in view. The value of a 5 sec chart with
the wide array of MMA's (6, 18, 36, 54, 72, 90, 108, 126, 144, 200 ema's) gives me
the equivalent of a 30 sec chart pattern up to 16.67 min) (5 sec chart / 200 periods =
16.67 min [200 X 5 divided by 60]).. A 3 min chart is the equivalent of viewing the
data patterns of 18 min up to 10 hrs). (3 min chart / 200 periods = 10 hrs [200 X 3
divided by 60])

Rather than searching for the significance in the smallest of tf's such as 5 seconds...
Digger uses tick charts. Here's some interesting clarifying comments from 'babypips.com'
on the subject of tick charts vs. time charts.

Tick Chart Differences/Benefits:

A tick chart is a chart that builds candles on a set amount of "ticks" rather than a
time chart that builds candles based off a set amount of time. A tick is an order that
goes into the market. So a 233 tick chart opens and closes a candle every 233 orders.

The good:
- Added clarity in swings.
- MA Values/Biases are influenced by actual volatility, rather than some period of time.

The bad:
- Not all chart providers (most free at least) don't provide them.
- Can't predict close b/c its based off market volatility rather than, "oh that candle
closes at 10:50, i'll be at the screens for it."

The first attachment should illustrate the difference between how a 10minute and a
233tick will vary. Notice how clean the swings are on the tick chart, and note how the
same swing on the time chart is drawn out and distorted. Clarity in grid trading just
makes life easier. Tick chart is on the right, time chart on the left.

The second attachment should just illustrate again the clarity if I were considering
buying this swing, look at the chopped clutter that could fake you out on the time
chart. The tick chart on the other hand doesn't display that shakeout. Again, tick chart
is on the right, time chart on the left.

Obviously, you can use either or. Price action remains the same. It is just my personal
preference to favor the tick charts for the above reasons. Forex has a lot of consolidative
chop, and the tick charts do wonders to clear up the mess time charts can make. Over
the same period of slop, a time chart might print 10 candles, because 100 minutes has
passed. In contrast the tick chart will have printed two candles, telling you that nothing
has happened. It keeps you out of crap more often than not.

http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-swing-trading/8204-fib-retracement-trading.html


Again, I've learned something new. 'Time' now to focus also on the 'tick',

Dr. D.
  • #232,509
  • Jun 19, 2010 11:36am Jun 19, 2010 11:36am
hmmmm... I might tend to agree with you more, if the down move hadn't been rejected below 1.48 and moved up above it, to close well above 1.48 on friday's close. My guess is it will gap a bit upwards on Sunday night and continue to move up.

also, as I'd noticed on Thursday evening, we are seeing a weird sort of reverse head and shoulders mutation right at the top of this recent move above 1.47. I thought it might form a real head and shoulders top but what we got instead was a reverse head and shoulders "at" the top! That sort of gave me a clue it was intending to go up more and not form a top.

I certainly agree with you that 1.48 was resistance before and is support now. I think the real resistance we saw this week was up at 1.4870, which, as I wrote, was double fib territory. But that can be taken out as price moves up, as I suspect it will, based on the pattern being played out at this point.

I've been wrong before and will certainly be so again. Let's see what happens!

Quoting uncletrumpet
1.4800/20 is a strong support that is now been retested as resistance. We are on the way down we are just testing that yellow down and we are on the way down to 1.4300
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #232,510
  • Jun 19, 2010 12:35pm Jun 19, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting hhitch
hmmmm... I might tend to agree with you more, if the down move hadn't been rejected below 1.48 and moved up above it, to close well above 1.48 on friday's close. My guess is it will gap a bit upwards on Sunday night and continue to move up.

also, as I'd noticed on Thursday evening, we are seeing a weird sort of reverse head and shoulders mutation right at the top of this recent move above 1.47. I thought it might form a real head and shoulders top but what we got instead was a reverse head and shoulders "at" the top! That sort of gave me...
Also despite bad news for GBP mid week just gone, GU dropped well over 100 pips but shot straight back up... My upper tl is showing 1.4950 - i am waiting to see whether this gets tested... the big players may even shoot up to this level and more to flush out stops... I see people are saying 1.50 is the next target but i don't see this happening unless UK's budget announcement on tuesday does something for the currency... then anything is possible... i won't be trading GU til after the budget..
  • #232,511
  • Edited 3:36pm Jun 19, 2010 2:45pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting uncletrumpet
1.4800/20 is a strong support that is now been retested as resistance. We are on the way down we are just testing that yellow down and we are on the way down to 1.4300
We closed up, above 1.4820. so we might go up. We need to break the ltl around 1.4720 in my below chart and then i will agree we going down. Also, US Dollar is likely to Slip Further as S&P 500, FX Markets Hit Summer Lull. so we go UP.

jaylovin : can you post chart for you 1.4950 utl.... mine says 1.4900

Thanks in advance!

Next is the Fib retracement Chart. We have taken out resistance at 1.4723, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 04/15-05/20 downswing, our overall long-term falling channel established from mid 2009. From here, we tested Resistance 1.4877 the 50% fib Level and then we have the 61.8% Fib levels at 1.5031.
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  • #232,512
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:41pm Jun 19, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Honored
We closed up, above 1.4820. so we might go up. We need to break the ltl around 1.4720 in my below chart and then i will agree we going...
we might goes to 1,3550s.. in 2 weeks.. if you look at higher time frames, you ll see there is a high probability... before going to space, we should goes below previous lows.. 1 and half year ago... look at... everything is suitable for that. so if we hear some very very bad news, really ever worst news, then lets go to the party...
anyway, i am a scalper, better for me the volatility
  • #232,513
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:42pm Jun 19, 2010 3:42pm
Watch out for a similar retrace we might get for the next 3-4 days, like we got one when we hit the 38% Fib retrace at 1.4723, we retraced all the way down its 23% fib retrace till 1.4342 and then we started back up again till this friday at 1.4887.

So after hitting this 50% fib level now at 1.4887, we might make another 23% retrace which is around 1.4460 or the ltl at 1.4434. That should make wormboy happy

The price reversal candles are already in place
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  • #232,514
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:50pm Jun 19, 2010 3:50pm
Honoured, here you go:

If you look i've drawn a line through the channel the PA is directing towards... 1.4950 also comes under another strong resistance level... if this level is respected then we are going down... but i wouldn't be surprised if the big boys push it further just to flush out stops...
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  • #232,515
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:14pm Jun 19, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting jaylovin
Honoured, here you go:

If you look i've drawn a line through the channel the PA is directing towards... 1.4950 also comes under another strong resistance level... if this level is respected then we are going down... but i wouldn't be surprised if the big boys push it further just to flush out stops...
Yea, that 1.4950 level should be another tough resistance, but the utl is little more higher just above 1.5... Thats where i got confused.
Thanks!
  • #232,516
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:27pm Jun 19, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting Honored
Yea, that 1.4950 level should be another tough resistance, but the utl is little more higher just above 1.5... Thats where i got confused.
Thanks!

do you have a chart you could show me? i would be interested to take a look... thanks!
  • #232,517
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:32pm Jun 19, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting jaylovin
do you have a chart you could show me? i would be interested to take a look... thanks!
Its the chart you posted. it hits the utl , following the PA , at 1.5031 monday.
  • #232,518
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:39pm Jun 19, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting Honored
Its the chart you posted. it hits the utl , following the PA , at 1.5031 monday.

aha... i see what you mean - the possibility of monday reaching that price... i was basing it on its current path timewise which would invalidate 1.5031 in my opinion.. but you are right ... 1.5031 is possible for next week

thanks
  • #232,519
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:47pm Jun 19, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Honored
Watch out for a similar retrace we might get for the next 3-4 days, like we got one when we hit the 38% Fib retrace at 1.4723, we retraced all the way down its 23% fib retrace till 1.4342 and then we started back up again till this friday at 1.4887.

So after hitting this 50% fib level now at 1.4887, we might make another 23% retrace which is around 1.4460 or the ltl at 1.4434. That should make wormboy happy

The price reversal candles are already in place

i've just started following GU again... mainly trade EU but starting to expand to other pairs now for more opportunities... with the uk budget announcement on tuesday - would you say there will be volatility of sell offs just before the announcement ? i'm expecting gu to be quiet on tuesday - possibly monday too
  • #232,520
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:49pm Jun 19, 2010 4:49pm
Hi Guys,

My first post on the cable thread!!!

Here's my view on the charts, one chart is from jan 2010 with a box on it, look at the 5 daily candles before the big fall, now look at the last 5 daily candles on the recent chart, they are almost identical.

The price on friday close, finished on top of the 50 ema, but the 20 ema remains underneath, historically from an ma point of view this remains bearish.

Also 1.48 was twice supported for a bounce of over 500 points, so I don't think 1.48 will go so 'easily' now it is resistance.

Cable likes to go through what we think is support or resistance by 50-100 pips triggering stops, getting new buyers involved then dumping it.

By the way I'm a terrible trader.. just showing you what I see!!


Cheers J
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