Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
- #260,302
- Jun 18, 2010 7:51pm Jun 18, 2010 7:51pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Thx G, Malc, D55, Fontu & Hatch | 3,196 Posts
I really do have a clue though man. I don't know where it's going and I don't claim to. Fact is euro is in a downtrend, this is still just a bounce for me. That's why I didn't take many trades this week, the action sucked really unless you're pretty good at trading the short tf's.
My plan for the last few weeks has just been to catch the break and hold below 2150. Whenever it happens... and I have a "clue" that it will(my clue is the charts)(PA charts not daily percentage increase charts).
we both know that i'm not gonna make a "this time, this price" call..cuz that's not how i trade.
i do remember your posts where you said that you DID NOT ever use stop loss, that you always hedge your eu longs as a stop loss and would hang on from 1.45,1.40 and every 3-400 pips or so down from there..i've made a few thousand and given a few hundred back in the mean time(not a ton but I'm getting there).
those gator charts that you hammer on are gold bro, really. all here should recognize that. this is for long tf trades mos times but as one nice thing that most don't realize I dont' think..if you hold the trade, you gain interest and don't have to claim capital gains..win win. your margin allows you to trade as much as you like(or as much as you should) with your floating profit..it just makes more sense imo.
If we get back up above 2670 for a bit then MAYBE the trend has changed but 500 pips up after 2-3000 down in 6 months is a good thing for long term shorts I would think..give a good chance to reload(that's what I'm waiting for). I posted at the beginning of this week that I'd be watching that 4hr channel with chart posted last week and throughout this one...we broke it once and I shorted, made like 80 pips and got stopped out. i ended up down about 1% this week so I should have sat out even more(my negative trades were on au and uj not eu)
and have a good weekend man
Donnie
edit: and everyone else have a good weekend of course too
My plan for the last few weeks has just been to catch the break and hold below 2150. Whenever it happens... and I have a "clue" that it will(my clue is the charts)(PA charts not daily percentage increase charts).
we both know that i'm not gonna make a "this time, this price" call..cuz that's not how i trade.
i do remember your posts where you said that you DID NOT ever use stop loss, that you always hedge your eu longs as a stop loss and would hang on from 1.45,1.40 and every 3-400 pips or so down from there..i've made a few thousand and given a few hundred back in the mean time(not a ton but I'm getting there).
those gator charts that you hammer on are gold bro, really. all here should recognize that. this is for long tf trades mos times but as one nice thing that most don't realize I dont' think..if you hold the trade, you gain interest and don't have to claim capital gains..win win. your margin allows you to trade as much as you like(or as much as you should) with your floating profit..it just makes more sense imo.
If we get back up above 2670 for a bit then MAYBE the trend has changed but 500 pips up after 2-3000 down in 6 months is a good thing for long term shorts I would think..give a good chance to reload(that's what I'm waiting for). I posted at the beginning of this week that I'd be watching that 4hr channel with chart posted last week and throughout this one...we broke it once and I shorted, made like 80 pips and got stopped out. i ended up down about 1% this week so I should have sat out even more(my negative trades were on au and uj not eu)
and have a good weekend man
Donnie
edit: and everyone else have a good weekend of course too
- #260,303
- Jun 18, 2010 7:52pm Jun 18, 2010 7:52pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jul 2009 | 5,375 Posts
You're right that no one ever knows 100% what is going to happen.....
as well, that's all.
Donnie, Price_V and everyone have a good weekend too..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
- #260,304
- Jun 18, 2010 9:11pm Jun 18, 2010 9:11pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,864 Posts
wow
drop from 111 000 to 75 000 (one other cot chart has it at 62 000 not sure why the diff)
I think we may well have a turn!!
if not now soon
I think we just had one more dive
and it may be over ... or not
but how far up will it go before it dives again.
teb
drop from 111 000 to 75 000 (one other cot chart has it at 62 000 not sure why the diff)
I think we may well have a turn!!
if not now soon
I think we just had one more dive
and it may be over ... or not
but how far up will it go before it dives again.
teb
- #260,305
- Jun 18, 2010 9:13pm Jun 18, 2010 9:13pm
Auch ein Wiener?
On a sidenote btw... im seriously hoping that EU will reach its target/s soon, ill switch to trading Eur/jpy and GBP/USD as a main focus if this ranging goes on.
If you want to sit out weird ranges, you could always wait until prices hit support or resistance levels or trendlines before making a trade.
- #260,306
- Edited 9:49pm Jun 18, 2010 9:38pm | Edited 9:49pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: I'll Take Your Pips | 1,338 Posts
Here's a 1 hour chart. As you can see since around 6/09 we've been in a short term uptrend with an occasional pull back to the 50 ema. Throw a 50 ema on your chart and you'll see.
Could this same scenario play out in the coming week(s)? Time will tell. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Could this same scenario play out in the coming week(s)? Time will tell. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
- #260,307
- Jun 18, 2010 9:54pm Jun 18, 2010 9:54pm
Alright.. As I said, if I see some change in USDx PA, then I can short some
as well, that's all.
Donnie, Price_V and everyone have a good weekend too..
- #260,308
- Jun 18, 2010 10:03pm Jun 18, 2010 10:03pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
It hasn't changed much....
somehow i don't think you're surprised...Good to see you a'rd tho and then I see GCP even dropped in... wonders never cease.
You're right tho...
FUBAR...
- #260,309
- Jun 18, 2010 11:00pm Jun 18, 2010 11:00pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Amat victoria curam | 2,333 Posts
I really do have a clue though man....
Excellent post
- #260,310
- Jun 18, 2010 11:45pm Jun 18, 2010 11:45pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Thx G, Malc, D55, Fontu & Hatch | 3,196 Posts
Here's a 1 hour chart. As you can see since around 6/09 we've been in a short term uptrend with an occasional pull back to the 50 ema. Throw a 50 ema on your chart and you'll see.
Could this same scenario play out in the coming week(s)? Time will tell. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Haven't seen ya in awhile. good to see you around again too.
Have a good weekend man
- #260,311
- Jun 19, 2010 1:09am Jun 19, 2010 1:09am
wow
Attachment
drop from 111 000 to 75 000 (one other cot chart has it at 62 000 not sure why the diff)
I think we may well have a turn!!
if not now soon
I think we just had one more dive
and it may be over ... or not
but how far up will it go before it dives again.
teb
Three other tidbits that might be helpful to fill in to the current place in time:
1) The most recent daily reports indicate that the current 2 week trend is running out of steam. It's starting to show up in the OI/volume figures. Rather than go into an increase in volatility, we have gone into a lack of activity, which will probably reverse back toward the main LT trend in the near term. Also, the OI figures are still so far from parity that it's likely that more time will be needed for a bone fide LT trend reversal to take place.
2) July options show calls in command - with 3 weeks until expiration of the contract.
3) But interestingly the August options turned towards the Puts on the 15th of this month, and the Sept options have been staunchly in the Put column as far back as I can tell. This indicates to me from an options investor standpoint that while there may be more room/time for the current 2 week trend to extend, it's likely to peter out and head back towards the LT direction within the 3 week week July expiration window, and my feel from the daily Futures data is that it will be sooner rather than later and as an editorial - perhaps even starting this week from the get-go (now that this latest CoT report is finally on everyone's radar).
- #260,312
- Jun 19, 2010 1:25am Jun 19, 2010 1:25am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: I'M NOT SIGNAL PROVIDER | 1,457 Posts
A little beginner trader since 2006
- #260,313
- Jun 19, 2010 1:28am Jun 19, 2010 1:28am
drop from 111 000 to 75 000 (one other cot chart has it at 62 000 not sure why the diff)
I think we may well have a turn!!
if not now soon
I think we just had one more dive
and it may be over ... or not
but how far up will it go before it dives again.
teb
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
- #260,314
- Jun 19, 2010 4:18am Jun 19, 2010 4:18am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #260,315
- Jun 19, 2010 6:02am Jun 19, 2010 6:02am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,864 Posts
135 seems reasonable before it may go down again!
it would have to fall a lot to get there
I think it would be to 1 to 1
it will drop faster
teb
- #260,316
- Jun 19, 2010 6:20am Jun 19, 2010 6:20am
Ok so what do we see for the upcoming week? I think the Dow is key to watch once again! From what I see, if present risk sentiment remains in force and nothing really exceptional happens, the Dow can rally as high as 10420 from a technical point of view, where some heavy resistance lies, in the upcoming week. As a consequence I would expect the euro to edge higher by approximately 150 pips, as is calculated for the usual correlation, thus coming at slightly above 1.22 at some point of the week. If that happens, further continuation of the short...
still holding 1/2 as per plan, with stop @ BE and TP @ Dow = 10620. Although my projections from june 8th show the EU might reach 1.30 and we've already rallied more than 500 pips from the bottom, I still have some questions and concerns, for example how can the rally be sustained without a proper base being formed? I think one possible solution might come from the Dow's Right shoulder which is being formed atm (see chart in the quote) which should lead a dip in the EU as well. So I'm looking for an extension of the upside towards 10650 dow and then possibly a corrective dip. This may or may not happen during the upcoming week. Overall I think we might need to see some sort of catalyst political event to lead a global dip in equities. One thing that has me bullish about the rally extension is the technicals. Both the Eu and the Dow overcame and managed to hold and close above major resistances. Weekly candlesticks in the EU are quite impressive & bullish.I'm slightly bullish for the upcoming week, however I can't advice any particular weekly trades, as I'm already well positioned since last monday and the euro rally is already quite extended. The targeted move from june 8th in the AUD from .8260 to .87 also was finished as projected and that leaves me without any further ideas for the time being.
Strategy suggestions : Hold open positions with stops and targets as suggested last week. Rally extension in equities is projected.
Dow strategy: Look for shorts around 10650 if it is reached this week.
good luck to all
- #260,320
- Jun 19, 2010 7:57am Jun 19, 2010 7:57am
135 000?
it would have to fall a lot to get there
I think it would be to 1 to 1
it will drop faster
teb
.bullish MA cross in H1.H2 and H4
Falling wedge formation
details on falling wedge formation from Bulkowski. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
#8 Bullish! The failure rate for falling wedges is very low at 10% while the average rise of 43% for this indicator suggest a profitable formation to trade. The highest price after the breakout is approx. the beginning of the trendlines
Pattern Shape - Two drawn downward-sloping to the right side trendlines that eventually must intersect. Use the trendline feature to draw the lines. Most formations have at least five touches. 3 on one side and 2 on the other side.
Trading Tactics - Most falling wedges has a mininum duration of 3-wks or more. Anything less is most likely a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 4 months long.
Trading Tactics - Most falling wedges has a mininum duration of 3-wks or more. Anything less is most likely a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 4 months long.
1.2332 holds this long trade for me and my stops are there
