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  • #257,121
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:04pm Jun 12, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting Xaron
They will and they won't stop there.

I think they will get there then drop
Xaron did you see the BIG jump in cot storts
I do not see how it can run in the face of that report!
I was starting to look long, that is unil cot.
last week i said i was looking to see whnat was going on.

I thought the funnyness in NFP was closing of shorts and there was a lot
of it. but clearly there was a lot of shorts added

just my thoughts

teb

just my thought

teb
  • #257,122
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:05pm Jun 12, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting CharlesSA
As per my previous post, the EU tested my 50% level and retraced 100pips just to crawl back slowly till market close. If you look on xe.com you will see that price has fallen 47 pips to reflect a value of 1.20610. This retracement has run its course IMO and bear movement will resume again now with a few stops along the way. I cannot personaly see why this will break the 1.2150 mark.

weekend price is meaningless

teb
  • #257,123
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:09pm Jun 12, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting 7bit
Look also at usdchf H4 and D1 (this has always given me useful hints when eurusd was unclear to analyze) there is an even nicer H&S (complex H&S) and USDCHF on the higher timeframes looks really short to me at the moment.

I would not be surprised to see the Euro going further up for many hundreds of pips.

I see the swissy and euro not in line with each other at this time
teb
  • #257,124
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:38pm Jun 12, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting TEB63
weekend price is meaningless

teb
Cot reports although they come out on Friday's they are lagging by 2 days. A big move can happen between Wednsday and Friday that will not show up in a cot report until the following week.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #257,125
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:44pm Jun 12, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting tonyo524
Cot reports although they come out on Friday's they are lagging by 2 days. A big move can happen between Wednsday and Friday that will not show up in a cot report until the following week.

yes tues. not wed. .... est.

teb
  • #257,126
  • Jun 12, 2010 7:14pm Jun 12, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting TEB63
I see the swissy and euro not in line with each other at this time
teb
so you mean they are moving different sides ?
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #257,127
  • Jun 13, 2010 4:04am Jun 13, 2010 4:04am
I have no bias for the week.

Techies are more in favor of bulls but the news I've been fed off this week is more bearish. I'll just trade my charts this week and keep a tight stop loss.

Have a good week, guys
  • #257,128
  • Jun 13, 2010 4:11am Jun 13, 2010 4:11am
Sunday job....playing with time zones.......being silly
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  • #257,129
  • Jun 13, 2010 4:18am Jun 13, 2010 4:18am
Quoting manojsai
Sunday job....playing with time zones.......being silly
the trend is still down
no sign of reversal
we should wait till 1.2150 is broken to buy
now sell is good from 1.2150 tp 1.1900 sl 1.2200
  • #257,130
  • Jun 13, 2010 4:40am Jun 13, 2010 4:40am
Ok so what do we see for the upcoming week? I think the Dow is key to watch once again! From what I see, if present risk sentiment remains in force and nothing really exceptional happens, the Dow can rally as high as 10420 from a technical point of view, where some heavy resistance lies, in the upcoming week. As a consequence I would expect the euro to edge higher by approximately 150 pips, as is calculated for the usual correlation, thus coming at slightly above 1.22 at some point of the week. If that happens, further continuation of the short squeeze is possible with next targets at 1.24 and beyond. Should the Dow stall and selloff heavily at 10420, the way might be open for a retest of the bottom, but I doubt a continuation of downtrend is possible in the short to medium term, so if that happens I'm going to buy.


EU Strategy advice:
Long EU aiming for dow 10420, then TP 1/2, stops at BE and aim for Dow 10650 where I think final and extreme resistance lies.

Dow Strategy: look to go short in the 10650 area, with tight stops, aim for a break of support downwards.


Here is an interesting possibility for the US stocks in the coming weeks:
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  • #257,131
  • Jun 13, 2010 5:55am Jun 13, 2010 5:55am
Quoting Now
On one thing we can all agree, it went to fast and to deep in a to short timeframe. +3000 pips in under 6 months without any correction.
It had many corrections along the way. People forget that altought 3000 pips do seem impressive is less than 20%.

I'm slightly bearish for next week. I still think we can go under 1.20 and even under 1.15.
  • #257,132
  • Jun 13, 2010 7:36am Jun 13, 2010 7:36am
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  • #257,133
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:00am Jun 13, 2010 8:00am
2010-06-11_Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 23).pdf (8.0 KB)
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #257,134
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:08am Jun 13, 2010 8:08am
I think we will see a small up
and then it will drop like a stone.

or a very very big move up

on the oanda 3 hour charts
we see a very clear 3 hour channel
we stopped right against it, the bottom of the top of the down channel.

we have the macd very very hight and just about to turn south
we have the 14 stoch already turned south

with the cot I see us moving south ,

teb
  • #257,135
  • Jun 13, 2010 10:01am Jun 13, 2010 10:01am
Rechecking , almost same views but still there come some difference in the bais.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=106

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #257,136
  • Edited 11:17am Jun 13, 2010 10:53am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Bro, don't try to fight those guys alone, just let them bark, till it's over.

"Dog barks caravan moves on"....

I can supply about 100 reasons why in PM.. Poor Dullah longs

your bull lost 1 testicular already this week and next week He's

going to lose last one , get ready...
look at big reversals on your chart.. if your in the bull euro camp.. id wait for #2 (double top r bottom)... 2008 top came in 2s.... so did the 2009 one.. july 2008 top.. november 2009 lower high... 2008 lower low... atm lower low.... trend???

im not a fan of a blanket statement of higher and higher low (ditto) bs. but if you are its there. there other things to consider that add momentum to this being a trend.
ive studied 1000s of trends and their reversals to date. they are mostly all similar w/o big news involved. a 5 m is not different then a 5 yr.. ucf in in a multi decade cycle of weakening. it, like the euro, is the less celebrated anti dollar..most reversals have a pattern they follow first. on these 2 pairs the signs are not there yet.. but we have a level on the usdx to be broken before further usd strength. when we get there i will short the usd. with a low risk trade. i admittedly missed it last time. do to laziness to rebuild some lost charts. ok its a big bump... but its not a bump too big to stop this move according to pa. another thing that makes me skeptical about any reversal (other then bounce) is we went past tl a little so far. but as said i will play the bounce until we cross.. the tl didnt stop it, a close fib did. and it bounced to a lower one.. then bounced back up to another and beyond.. then closed out below.. on a small tf not good for usd bulls.. but certainly not a green light for usd bears..

a 300 pip bounce is not a reversal. just normal pa after making yet another low.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,137
  • Jun 13, 2010 10:59am Jun 13, 2010 10:59am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting Tradertuga
It had many corrections along the way. People forget that altought 3000 pips do seem impressive is less than 20%.

I'm slightly bearish for next week. I still think we can go under 1.20 and even under 1.15.
No corrections yet since the drop of Nov. 2009.
A fall of 20% in under 6 months is impressive. It dropped like a rock.
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Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #257,138
  • Jun 13, 2010 11:03am Jun 13, 2010 11:03am
Quoting Bootleger
Jim Rogers saying it's time to buy the euro...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OUQn...jU&feature=sub

Just remember that he was saying to buy the dollar at the bottom 6-7 months ago and we saw that big rally !
Who's Jim Rogers ?

«In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder. That same year,...
he was not the only one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,139
  • Edited 11:18am Jun 13, 2010 11:07am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting USD-Bear
Xaron, I remember we had this kind of interesting discussions a year ago.
As you guys, I didn't find the answer either.
Problem is the worlds reserve currency is terrible flawed but there is no alternative in the sence of other currencies.
A gold standard could solve a lot of things but we are not going back there.
What could come in mind is a commodity standard as a reference for all currencies, that could solve a lot of things and provide the world real value as reference even better than gold.
Lets buy AUD/USD the closest thing
im not buying euro without a sign... but if i was considering buying the eu... i would buy the au first..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,140
  • Jun 13, 2010 12:00pm Jun 13, 2010 12:00pm
I do not see a north move.

the only fly I see is if we have a big move in Stocks
then we might be bull

otherwise

I plan on riding this bear down to 1 to 1


cheers

TEB
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