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  • #257,041
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:40pm Jun 11, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting Xaron
Keep in mind that the USD index never before gained for more than 6 months in a row. We are now in month 7. Already improving news from the EU will support the Euro in the near term (at least this month).
Who cares, haven't you integrated that the Euro zone is in a deep crisis ?
Explaining that the USD is gaining because it gets its status of reserve currency / safe heaven back, even if the US economy and the US debts are worse than ever.

Problem here is not the USD, but the full scale confidence crisis in Europe that will probably take 2-3 years to soothe.

I learned one thing during the "No" to the European constitution referendum in 2005, and that is that when the euro is in confidence crisis, you don't second guess it, you sell until the things gets fixed.
And for this crisis, things are far away from being fixed.

Didn't you see the articles that are calling for Greece bankruptcy in August.
This will go on and on and on, until the world have a greater crisis (??? war, dollar ???), or we'll have to solve the whole problem, and that will take long long years.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,042
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:43pm Jun 11, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Naseri13
I love this MACD!~
My Strategy is only MACD and Pivot points in charts .
not anything, and hopefully I was add 300 - 400 pips weekly too my account.
Well dear ACHI Naseri from Persia ;-) it is a leading indicator - ein Frühindikator - and the same fact is to be observed in a much more stronger way & meaning in Daily charts as well. But just because it is an 8 hours chart - we do must allow that prices will come back lower once more. Though it has a more significant meaning - just because it is to be observed in this bigger time frames. I just say this to you - because I noticed your long entries - and I was wondering about the last long entry - the fourth I mean...

The first three - they were top and tough so - eins drauf mit Mappe !

No doubt

Possibly you are speculating a la longue - different from my kind - we want to be flat always within maximum 20 hours. Anyway I wish you good luck and a nice week-end..


bibib
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #257,043
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:45pm Jun 11, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting ak4x
gator.. just in case you didn;t get your pm popup thingy working, check them before shutting down.
ak
got it thank you.. gone
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,044
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:51pm Jun 11, 2010 3:51pm
The thing is that all this deep sh1t is almost priced in the Euro. And yes, the EU has its crisis and it's very worrying. But we work on that. I don't see anything from the US yet. Well of course, "deficits are not a problem". Hell, why are they charging taxes than instead of just printing money?

I made some mistakes in underestimating the exaggeration of the markets concerning the incredible unimportant Greece debt problems and underestimated the political facts which did weight much more than all the debts but now we are at levels which are rather cheap for long term traders, especially with the background of still very high net short futures (COT) (even though the short positions are decreasing for some weeks now).

The ECB will hike before the FED, that's absolutely not priced in as most participants still believe in a FED hike this year which won't happen and even might not happen in 2011.
  • #257,045
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:59pm Jun 11, 2010 3:59pm
Nice. A close above 1.21 where Ashraf tells something of a close below which is important for the continuation of the down trend: http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/euro...wiss-knife.asp

Looks like the guys at CMC close before the markets close.
  • #257,046
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:03pm Jun 11, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting Xaron
The thing is that all this deep sh1t is almost priced in the Euro. And yes, the EU has its crisis and it's very worrying. But we work on that. I don't see anything from the US yet. Well of course, "deficits are not a problem". Hell, why are they charging taxes than instead of just printing money?
You still don't want to understand, or try.
The euro and the USD are not competing in the same league.
In final resort, people will buy USD whatever happens if there is a crisis of confidence, or a war.
You're trying to find reasons why they shouldn't buy USD, the problem is that they MUST do it because there is nothing else no other asset that provide that security.
I know it can sound strange, but think about it.
The USD is the most used currency (and the de facto reserve currency), The US is still the #1 economy, and still a big military superpower. So buying USD is relatively safe for now.
Europe can't demonstrate political, economic or military efficiency. We can't get anything done really right.
That's this kind of matters that put the euro and the USD on different leagues, nothing very hard to understand, imho

Yes, the US are losing steam, but they still have plenty of it left, and well enough to get no real competiton.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,047
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:06pm Jun 11, 2010 4:06pm
fxswing I get your point. But what you might not understand that the US itself NEED a weaker Dollar. So the economic and military (no doubts here) super power nation #1 wants a weak Dollar and they will get it.
  • #257,048
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:10pm Jun 11, 2010 4:10pm
Supply and demand is overwhelming them, that's why USD is appreciating, and the tone against the Yuan is getting louder.
They can't choose to have a weaker dollar, especially when the euro zone is doing as poorly as now. People will buy, buy,buy,buy, and uncle Sam can't do anything about it. They even had to re-open exchange swap facilities...
Yes the US would like a weaker currency, but now they won't have it because of their reserve status. That will stay like this until we have another credible alternative... ? Euro with regain confidence in some years ? Yen ? Yuan ? Peso ? Amero ? ? ?
I can't find any possibilities in the few next years...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,049
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:11pm Jun 11, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting Xaron
fxswing I get your point. But what you might not understand that the US itself NEED a weaker Dollar. So the economic and military (no doubts here) super power nation #1 wants a weak Dollar and they will get it.
depends on who holds office.. next chance 3 years..

later folks have a good one..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,050
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:11pm Jun 11, 2010 4:11pm
Yes you're right. It's hard to decide which FIAT currency will suffer most. Maybe that's the reason for the Gold up move because Gold is somehow a real safe haven. The next bubble to pop will be the treasury bubble and this one will be huge.
  • #257,051
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:12pm Jun 11, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
depends on who holds office.. next chance 3 years
Indeed.
  • #257,052
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:14pm Jun 11, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting Xaron
Indeed.
hey btw.. its kinda a secret so dont tell anyone.. but china also had a failed bond sale.. the paper tiger.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,053
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:14pm Jun 11, 2010 4:14pm
Alright have a nice Friday evening guys. Nice discussion here even though we haven't the same opinion all the time. My apologies if I did offend someone, you know, I'm the evil Kraut.
  • #257,054
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:16pm Jun 11, 2010 4:16pm
No problems, have a nice weekend people, and lots of fun...

Cya
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,055
  • Edited 4:44pm Jun 11, 2010 4:19pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting Xaron
Keep in mind that the USD index never before gained for more than 6 months in a row. We are now in month 7. Already improving news from the EU will support the Euro in the near term (at least this month).
keep in mind we heard the never had a rounding bottom on the weekly much less a double...improving news? it's about 60/40 from my estimate with about 60 percent maybe more thinking there's no way countries like Greece actually pay back their debts..this will hurt the euro no doubt..how the heck is it gonna be worth a buck fifty next year? especially with a Obama in office here..
Either way, maybe one up month on USDX..but euro ain't 1.50 next year. Maybe 1.5 yuan..
Don't be fooled by "improving news" though..you really think it gets better that quick? we just went through it and are still dealing with it here..cheaper exports help bigger countries a fair amount with their profit margin, at the same time they are buying the iron/copper/plastic whatever at a higher cost cause their money is worth less..then you have less people in the other crap economies buying less German stuff, then you have Germany spending money on Greece, then portugal, then spain..don't forget they've been investing in piigs for at least 4-5 years big time. don't forget greece lied before about budget deficit(most probably lie just to join EU in some way or another)..

like Gator said, when the lights turn on..roaches scatter. the king is almost completely naked..when they yank the rug out from underneath, break down the front door and start up the bulldozers(instead of throwing rocks)..shit really will hit the fan. just 2 weeks ago we were talking about how many millions/billions had been pulled out of EU banks..do you think all these people put their money back there?
where did all the fresh money come from then? printed more maybe? maybe not even print, just do like US and conjure it out of thin air?? either way, it's fake money and it's just buying time so the men behind the curtain can dump more euros
  • #257,056
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:20pm Jun 11, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting Xaron
Alright have a nice Friday evening guys. Nice discussion here even though we haven't the same opinion all the time. My apologies if I did offend someone, you know, I'm the evil Kraut.
have a great weekend too man.

  • #257,057
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:21pm Jun 11, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting uraceulose
keep in mind we heard the never had a rounding bottom on the weekly much less a double...improving news?...

heavy trains take a long time to stop..........no quick fix here...running out of fingers to plug the dam
  • #257,058
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:33pm Jun 11, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting mfoste1
heavy trains take a long time to stop..........no quick fix here...running out of fingers to plug the dam
yep. I'm sure in 3 years we will look back and say "it ended up boiling down to who was in the big house". it's an easy way to control it for the men behind the curtain and it makes sense on the timing or close anyway. I do believe the dollar is also screwed and bound to drop big time..i just don't know if Euro will be here in it's current state to gain against the dollar. I'm sure AU, CAD, GOLD GOLD GOLD, yuan of course, won, rupee, franc..whatever else will go up against dollar. the euro just has me worried because of the weird 16 governments, same currency, one "ecb" and all different laws. plus they all lied to join..it just doesn't seem like most european countries REALLY care to help each other out(by "others", I mean Greeks don't seem to willing to help out the Portugese atm). Germany has to lie to their own people and change the story once per week to get the vote passed(they probably do it to confuse the common person in to not caring)

just like bailout in US, it came on TV "WE HAVE TO DO THIS!!!!" BANKS WILL FAIL OVERNIGHT IF NOT!!! THE WORLD WILL END!!

Whatever blah blah blah..and then BAM, they print 1 freaking trillion dollars!
ponzi scheme no doubt.



hey man, have a good weekend...im gonna smoke a ciggy and kick back for awhile. been hunched over looking at these screens for hours today..

later guys
  • #257,059
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:35pm Jun 11, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting Xaron
Quoting fxswing
Cya
Note to newbies... above are two of the sharper knives in the drawer a'rd here. Figger out who they listen to and/or debate intelligently with and you'll have a good lead on who else to listen to...

That's how it oughta be done...
FUBAR...
  • #257,060
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:57pm Jun 11, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting uraceulose
yep. I'm sure in 3 years we will look back and say "it ended up boiling down to who was in the big house". it's an easy way to control it for the men behind the curtain and it makes sense on the timing or close anyway....


yea i agree, dollar is doomed long term, but not right now.....just too much easy money for a very long time. American spending habits are outrageous compared to the rest of the world, this will kill our country. Were so used to rising markets and standards of life that we literally have no idea what a real downturn looks and feels like. since the early thirties standards of living have literally went up in a straight line. I remeber, ironic as it was, i was in macroecon class when paulson came on saying "If we dont give the banks money the economy will fail".....I think the real winners in all this bruhaha will be younger economies with a lot of natural resources...ie brazil, australia, russia, china, south asian economies.....i think in the distant future BIG bucks will be made by agriculture and clean water.......farming real estate, water purification....lets face it, the world cant provide enough of these two basic human needs. billions of ppl go thirsty and hungry every day. now i just gotta find a way to cash in on these ideas
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