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  • #257,001
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:57pm Jun 11, 2010 1:57pm
I would hold on the market is in a down trend......main trend is down......but it depends how deep your pockets are.......the market won't go up past 1.2150......so the trend is with you now you are gaining back some of your losses why give it up.....besides we are in wave3 down....if anything crazy happens....it will be in your favor.......


Quoting feversam
hello friend...

I had position SELL in EU @ 1.1906.
Should I CUTLOSS / HOLD until monday ??

thanks for ur advice...
  • #257,002
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:59pm Jun 11, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I dunno about 1969, I believe GOLD was set to 20$/oz

you do the math $1200/20 = 60 times 3$/barrel *60 = $180/b

That's your price including inflation,

Conclusion: 75$ Is way undervalued (inflation adjusted)
or 25X overvalue. its a ponzi scheme oil goes up so wages have to go up.. maybe we could stop the bs and go to "the oil standard". ..the old kings have been thrown a monkey wrench.. so the new king is in danger..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,003
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:03pm Jun 11, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
I am sure we will see that all time 50 but I think that 2154 is what the bull is looking for. good luck
That was form yesterday. and today is a new day.

I think that we are all in the same boat here, not quite sure. My last 3 entries have worked out this last one was tough. Here is my 4Hr chart the blue area has my attention at the moment. I think at the least we will get a bounce out of it. my next bear entry would be 2049 only if we get down to the low 1900's at a minimum. but If we bounce their I will reasses things.

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  • #257,004
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:07pm Jun 11, 2010 2:07pm
notta...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,005
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:09pm Jun 11, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
or 25X overvalue.
Well, unfortunately, They cannot keep printing without prices for limited

resources to be reflect printing. It like in Russia, ones retired people

get their pension inflation adjusted (rise by some %%%), next day prices for food gets higher

by the same % amount. Create more money = price increase is true

over the longer term. Excessive printing/"expanding balance sheet",

whatever they call it, will eventually inflate prices on everything

accordingly.. You squeeze one end, other end gets bubbled..
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  • #257,006
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:10pm Jun 11, 2010 2:10pm
Keep in mind that the USD index never before gained for more than 6 months in a row. We are now in month 7. Already improving news from the EU will support the Euro in the near term (at least this month).
  • #257,007
  • Edited 2:25pm Jun 11, 2010 2:15pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting Xaron
Keep in mind that the USD index never before gained for more than 6 months in a row. We are now in month 7. Already improving news from the EU will support the Euro in the near term (at least this month).
i may buy eu at a double top. usx for 2360/2590 target. or a tl... keep this in mind also.. usd has historically been stronger with a certain party in office comparably.. it usually takes almost a year for the trend to change with a new party historically.. so we may have 3 more years if usd strength,, chf says 7000/16000 possible pips. atm there are no signs of any reversal.. but a bounce is welcome if you see it coming. news is just that news.. the facts are eu is broke. the banks are broke. manufacturing market share % is being lost. banks don't trust each other so they don't loan to each other. less youngsters to support the aging retired population. you dont have commodities. china has a bulls eye on Europe as it did the u.s. the last 20 years. Asia will take more market share. In the short run the only savior for ez and euro is a devalued euro. in the long run it may be too late.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,008
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:16pm Jun 11, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Xaron
Keep in mind that the USD index never before gained for more than 6 months in a row. We are now in month 7. Already improving news from the EU will support the Euro in the near term (at least this month).
You got it!

Germany Exports rises over 10% last month alone!

We might still be in some range for a while, cause I think they (EZ) gotta love

these exchange rates..
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  • #257,009
  • Edited 2:30pm Jun 11, 2010 2:16pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I dunno about 1969, I believe GOLD was set to 20$/oz

you do the math $1200/20 = 60 times, now, 3$/barrel *60 = $180/b

That's your price including inflation,

Conclusion: 75$ Is way undervalued (inflation adjusted) It's like $1.25 back in 1969,

using your 1969 $3/b scenario.
Do't know much about , just out of curiosity I calculate the price of plain & simple water as some may think as priceless in this world covering 3/4 of the world surface this way ,
1.5 L of water bottle here in Oman now 250 baizas =0.25 R.O
1 barrel oil =158.9873 L x 0.25 R.o.=26.487 R.O. = 69.004 Dollar

but oil now 71.76 only $ !!!!!!
it is extremely cheap near the water level in this world !!!!!!!!
is it one of the most worthless fluid in this world , even can't compete well with so called free /zero water values , anyway the other name of water is life but other name of oil may be fire , just opposite & should kept under controll for all safety.

No personal views attached .
corrected the price of water , just check the bottle 1.5 L not 1 L .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #257,010
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:21pm Jun 11, 2010 2:21pm
did you see all the new cars they make



Quoting SkyzerFX
You got it!

Germany Exports rises over 10% last month alone!

We might still be in some range for a while, cause I think they (EZ) gotta love

these exchange rates..
  • #257,011
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:25pm Jun 11, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting fontu
anyway the other name of water is life but other name of oil may be fire , just opposite & should kept under controll for all safety. No personal views attached .
fontu
Alright, then let's close all GAS stations tomorrow and see what's up,

if OIL is nothing ( I know GOLD is nothing for you and Gator too, so would discuss much about this)..

It's worth more than you think, in today's world.

Liquid and yet cheep Energy + it's used in so many other purposes, everywhere..

It's none replaceable for at least another 50-100 years..
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  • #257,012
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:29pm Jun 11, 2010 2:29pm
I think it may be a little skewed to compare the retail price of water to the wholesale price of oil.

Perhaps a better comparison is retail oil to retail water, or wholesale to wholesale.


Quoting fontu
Do't know much about , just out of curiosity I calculate the price of plain & simple water as some may think as priceless in this world covering 3/4 of the world surface this way ,
1 L of water bottle here in Oman now 250 baizas =0.25 R.O
1 barrel oil =158.9873 L x 0.25 R.o.=39.746 R.O. = 103.505 Dollar

but oil now 71.76 only $ !!!!!!
it is extremely cheap than the water level in this world !!!!!!!!
is it the most worthless fluid in this world , even can't compete so called free /zero water values , anyway the other name of water is life but...
.:"If you do square work, you do not cut corners":.
  • #257,013
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:29pm Jun 11, 2010 2:29pm
Are you sure you don't like my charts.

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  • #257,014
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:30pm Jun 11, 2010 2:30pm
Oil will be even cheaper, it's as cheap as in dumping loads of it in the ocean...that's how cheap it is. - Thanks to BP
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,015
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:34pm Jun 11, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
You got it!

Germany Exports rises over 10% last month alone!

We might still be in some range for a while, cause I think they (EZ) gotta love

these exchange rates..
*LMFAO* yes they did,, but your using comparable info since 2008/09.. they have better picked up.. so with a 10% increase they are losing money 10% faster.. Dont forget those the beamers were built with commodities priced in usd. so they exported beamers at a cheaper usd price. and keep paying more for the commodities.. at some point that 10% will be a mofu.. especially when you pay 20% more for commodities.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #257,016
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:36pm Jun 11, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Could you Hedge? I mean take appositive position,

(which is LONG in your example) with the same lot

Just before 4:00 PM? Then later you will undo whichever is wrong.
thanks for your advice friends, i'll try to hedge it...
  • #257,017
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:36pm Jun 11, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
Are you sure you don't like my charts.
I like it, and I see 1.26+ on your chart, second line of FIB..
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  • #257,018
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:40pm Jun 11, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
*LMFAO* yes they did,, but your using comparable info since 2008/09.. they have better picked up.. so with a 10% increase they are losing money 10% faster.. Dont forget those the beamers were built with commodities priced in usd. so they exported beamers at a cheaper usd price. and keep paying more for the commodities.. at some point that 10% will be a mofu.. especially when you pay 20% more for commodities.
Well at least we Germans produce something the rest of the world is willing to buy. I can't say that from the US. I doubt that the lovely iPhone will create enough income to compensate for the poor US industry.

Anyway, I stick to that. The US need a weak Dollar and they will get it. The last 6 months were just some kind of a giant USD bull trap like in 2005. The chinese gov already use these cheap levels to diversify more out of their Dollar reserves. I don't say that the EU hasn't problems but at least they've started to do something against their debts. But hey, now the rating agencies cry because of these austerity measures and think the recession will deepen because of that. The same rating agencies who cried because of the debts levels before. And the same rating agencies who still give the US and UK an AAA rating. How stupid is that? Does anyone belief the US will pay back their debts ever? Oh maybe they will, with cheaper (MUCH cheaper) printed Dollars.

The Euro will be at 1.30-35 till the end of this year and above 1.50 next year.
  • #257,019
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:40pm Jun 11, 2010 2:40pm
Let me draw bottom line here. NO matter what happens,

Dollar will be kicked back from current levels.. What that was

88.70? That be it. Next stop 85
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  • #257,020
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:41pm Jun 11, 2010 2:41pm
I have some bigger longs at these level (around 1.21) and will hold them till 1.30.
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