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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,641
  • May 26, 2010 11:08pm May 26, 2010 11:08pm
This one is appears to be setting up for a reversal. Price at a monthly resistance level ....two consecutive swing highs ....not the same on MACD = Divergence.

Also looks like like a head and shoulder with second shoulder not making any new highs.

Primary trendline have been tested from below and it held .....break of the secondary trendline which would also break the last swing low could be a good entry point.

lets see how this one transpires.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD-H4-REVERSAL..jpg Size: 181 KB
  • #6,642
  • May 27, 2010 12:39am May 27, 2010 12:39am
Quoting Custos
thanks paulette for the points you bring up. yep, gbp/jpy definitely does require larger than usual stop losses, but also gives out larger than usual profits. It's a kind of dynamic thing.

Anyways, gbp/jpy has paid me 200 pips today. Not to mention the other pairs, but gbp/jpy just has remarkable returns in terms of pips.
Morning Custos, exactly why I like gj - it is R:R for me has been great, if you can keep your marbles together and not chase / go tigger happy on this pair, it has very nice gains.
  • #6,643
  • May 27, 2010 1:42am May 27, 2010 1:42am
Quoting Custos
now that's exactly the kind of discussion I like.

Well, the strategy I tested out is time-frame independent. Meaning, if I am on the e.g. h1, I will only mark h1 S/R levels, and disregard any lower or higher time-frame levels and just trade from the h1 chart.

Concerning your question with trading smaller tfs with higher tf S/R levels. I definitely think that this will work as well. It's just a matter of testing out what kind of conluence we need to get a higher win/loss and potentiall high R:R.

I think a major problem with drawing S/R levels...

In process of befriending FT2...
  • #6,644
  • May 27, 2010 1:57am May 27, 2010 1:57am
Quoting Paulette
In process of befriending FT2...
yeah, basically what it allows you to do is to speed up the market and see how your strat would have developed in a matter of hours instead of months. That's why I like it.
  • #6,645
  • May 27, 2010 2:21am May 27, 2010 2:21am
Hi All,

ECad short entry 1.30500, waiting to move to BE...

Entry based on confluence of 50Fib, S/R, RN, TL... Same old, same old...

Trade Safe
  • #6,646
  • May 27, 2010 2:31am May 27, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Custos
yeah, basically what it allows you to do is to speed up the market and see how your strat would have developed in a matter of hours instead of months. That's why I like it.

WOW love FT2... MktScape and Custos great pic and great new toy...
  • #6,647
  • Edited 8:46am May 27, 2010 8:10am | Edited 8:46am
Well, the strategy I tested out is time-frame independent. Meaning, if I am on the e.g. h1, I will only mark h1 S/R levels, and disregard any lower or higher time-frame levels and just trade from the h1 chart.
So looks like you wont mark the weekly and monthly TFs…. I do mark weekly and monthly levels at least as those two TF as they are significant. I would want to mark daily as well however then there will be a lot of lines on the chart so I check it manually.

I think a major problem with drawing S/R levels on all kinds of tfs is that you lose perspective. There are so many levels to consider, so many tfs. You will kind of lose track which level is right now important. At least for me it is still hard.
I hear you …and it gets too messy i.e. a lot of lines on the chart ….which is why I try to stick with weekly and monthly S/R line.

COT Report:
I believe its good to learn using it in long term … usually as the trader matures they want to take longer term trades such as dailys and its good to know and apply what commercials are doing in long term.

Price Action:
When I stated learning about price action I started with bar charts and later I got introduced to candles …. I always think that the nomenclature given to candles (such as Doji, Shooting Star, Dragon Doji) doesn’t matter much …, and I don’t remember them that way anyways ….. I use candles because it is easy on eyes …. But I do switch back between bar/candle charts. Therefore when reading the chart I always read them from the perspective of bull/bear tug of war and market psychology ….now I have always missed using volume with price action in Forex however my search suggest that if we have volume data coming from a good source such as eSignal (which has a large pool of big contributors) or other good brokers such as FXCM then that can get the job done …. i am seeing good results in combing volume with PA. (will discuss more later)

“because you can interpret PA behind this candle without it having to look like the best candle ever.” <--- Exactly , i dont bother about what candle is called. I simply read the PA
Closes are very important …. i mean that’s professional activity .

“If price breaks a S/R level to the downside and closes back above it, that is a good sign that for now the S/R level will hold.”  this is happening right now on USDCAD-H4. The neckline Support got broken however price has now pulled back above it … however that pullback is happening on low volume i.e. its not bullish and most likely breakdown again… better wait for a continuation before entering this one.

Boredom can make trader do things that are not suppose to be done such as over trading …. Therefore there should be a plan to spend the time available productively i.e. expanding the knowledge base , listening and reading personal growth materials (some professional traders so meditation to maintain their mental clarity and peace of mind, physical activity is a must.

Lessons Learned: you have mentioned some good lesson …. would add a couple more such as risk management by not using a large chunk of capital on one trade …i.e. split capital into say 25% segment and use that portion on trades. Trading is about growing the trading account consistently and avoiding greed.
Have you used the compounding worksheet to workout how much your account can grow over a period of time if you can make a consistent , say 8% return per month?
Also record keeping and self evaluation is paramount importance ..if one have to grow and learn to become a pro. (will add more to it)

“I have to say, I don't even see the money anymore I am winning or losing. For me the percent are just important, no matter how much money that represents.”
This is the state of mind trader should work toward achieving … as it is said that focus of trading well and money will come as an after thought

We will talk more one various aspect of trading …. Its very important to discuss them and understand them thoroughly.

My last station has arrived …. Got jump out of the train now …will continue later.
  • #6,648
  • May 27, 2010 8:38am May 27, 2010 8:38am
Quoting Paulette
WOW love FT2... MktScape and Custos great pic and great new toy...
I was triyng to decipher what is FT2 and right when i was about to post this asking what in the world is FT2 it finally dawned upon me on .... ok so ForexTester.

Glad you are liking it .... post your experiences as well.
  • #6,649
  • May 27, 2010 9:52am May 27, 2010 9:52am
Quoting MktScape
Well, the strategy I tested out is time-frame independent. Meaning, if I am on the e.g. h1, I will only mark h1 S/R levels, and disregard any lower or higher time-frame levels and just trade from the h1 chart.
So looks like you wont mark the weekly and monthly TFs…. I do mark weekly and monthly levels at least as those two TF as they are significant. I would want to mark daily as well however then there will be a lot of lines on the chart so I check it manually.


I think a major problem with drawing S/R levels on all kinds of tfs is that...
Indeed as time moves on, charts tick by and we get to know the markets and ourselves better - we grow...

Trade safe
  • #6,650
  • May 27, 2010 9:56am May 27, 2010 9:56am
Quoting MktScape
I was triyng to decipher what is FT2 and right when i was about to post this asking what in the world is FT2 it finally dawned upon me on .... ok so ForexTester.

Glad you are liking it .... post your experiences as well.
FT2 is amazing, much better than the manual version I was applying... I like its effect on the longer TF's - I am for now just loving it...

Woops - most of my previous post gone missing... ok I get the message gotta say less...
  • #6,651
  • May 27, 2010 10:16am May 27, 2010 10:16am
Quoting Paulette
Hi All,

ECad short entry 1.30500, waiting to move to BE...

Entry based on confluence of 50Fib, S/R, RN, TL... Same old, same old...

Trade Safe
Post some charts Paulette, it feels lively .... I just didnt get a chance to respond ... will catch up soon.

Ciao
  • #6,652
  • Edited 11:40am May 27, 2010 11:19am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting Paulette
FT2 is amazing, much better than the manual version I was applying... I like its effect on the longer TF's - I am for now just loving it...

Woops - most of my previous post gone missing... ok I get the message gotta say less...
haha, you have the same reaction I had when I tested it out the first time, just an awesome piece of software. Seriously.
  • #6,653
  • May 27, 2010 11:34am May 27, 2010 11:34am
Yeah, thing is, if the lines get confusing there are probably too much of them on the chart. I always try to clear them up as soon as I can.

yeah, I probably will look more into the effects of COT reports in future, but right now I am testing raw PA with no indicators except price.

Volume is also quite interesting. I know that volume works quite well apparently, but I have just one problem with it, it looks to me like an indicator, and I am a little suspicious about something else than price trying to indicate future direction. Anyways, still interesting concept. And worth testing, but right now I wanna become proficient in the PA route.
Nonetheless, I would welcome any info you have about volume and how to use it profitably.

yeah, I didn't look at any compounding worksheet, because I made my own sheets and have lots of simulations built into excel to show me various scenarios and analyses of my trades both to forecast and to analyse past trade (Unfortunately, this excel sheet is not something I am willing to share, I spent 6 months into creating all different kinds of analyses in this excel sheet, just too much work to give it to others, but you guys for sure can figure out your own excel sheets).

Anyways, very interesting discussion going on here. Hopefully it continues that way
Quoting MktScape
Well, the strategy I tested out is time-frame independent. Meaning, if I am on the e.g. h1, I will only mark h1 S/R levels, and disregard any lower or higher time-frame levels and just trade from the h1 chart.
So looks like you wont mark the weekly and monthly TFs…. I do mark weekly and monthly levels at least as those two TF as they are significant. I would want to mark daily as well however then there will be a lot of lines on the chart so I check it manually.

I think a major problem with drawing S/R levels on all kinds of tfs is that...
  • #6,654
  • May 27, 2010 12:07pm May 27, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting MktScape
Post some charts Paulette, it feels lively .... I just didnt get a chance to respond ... will catch up soon.

Ciao
Ok - here goes...

I put a demo trade on 25 May Order to open on the 1.3250 level with a 50pip SL which netted a neat 250 pips till I stopped it out just now. On the chart it is the top orange rectangle;

My live trade today was based on retesting the 50%fib of the purple fib (see lower orange rectangle), which is based on the huge retrace of last week. Entry & TP's indicated on chart...

and now she looks like she is dropping further towards TP3... Lets see, one day I am gonna have the gutts to just let it run...

Trade safe
P
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ecad.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #6,655
  • May 27, 2010 12:18pm May 27, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting Custos
Yeah, thing is, if the lines get confusing there are probably too much of them on the chart. I always try to clear them up as soon as I can.

yeah, I probably will look more into the effects of COT reports in future, but right now I am testing raw PA with no indicators except price.

Volume is also quite interesting. I know that volume works quite well apparently, but I have just one problem with it, it looks to me like an indicator, and I am a little suspicious about something else than price trying to indicate future direction. Anyways, still...
Custos,

Volume - hmmm, I have boxed it as an indicator, let me know if you have a different perspective...

.xls, same here, I have developed something to my liking, still loads of work to be done and one day when I am happy and done with it, I will flogg it into Qlikview.

PS no words from me tomorrow, I am assisting in supervising a school outing for a group of 6yr olds - I will be no-FX-stressed after that lot...

Back on Monday... Trade safe...
  • #6,656
  • Edited 3:29pm May 27, 2010 12:38pm | Edited 3:29pm
I would use an indicator from time to time, one for price (MACD) and one for volume (Volume RSI). The way I use it is only to confirm divergences and nothing more .... as we know that indicator is essentially taking the price action into account.
As price and volume give a potent combination in analysis therefore i feel that if one can get a confirmation from these two unrelated data types then the probablity of anticipated price action is high. But my main course of analysis is of course, PA. In forex we have tick volume and we have to use comparitive vol bars to to analyze the steam behind the bars. Its working is similar to how its analyzed for stocks.

Compunding worksheet is a simple concept to understand where a trader would be in X # of periods if the capital gain per month is X%. It gives a good perspective and i think it helps in going relatively slowly but smoothly and not rushing for the riches.

I have got my own worksheet, which i feel is quite comprehensive in data mining and keep track of every stategy used, its win loss ratio, overall win loss ratio, R Multiple (Expectancy), equity curve and more including monte carlo simulation. (i havent used it to its full potential however would definitely use it once i go full time. And yes , once you put so much time and effort in developing it, its your baby.

I'll post some charts with volume related observation and we will expand upon various trading aspects which came in earlier discussion .

BTW ... post some levels you are watching .

I'll be in touch.

Quoting Custos
Volume is also quite interesting. I know that volume works quite well apparently, but I have just one problem with it, it looks to me like an indicator, and I am a little suspicious about something else than price trying to indicate future direction. Anyways, still interesting concept. And worth testing, but right now I wanna become proficient in the PA route.
Nonetheless, I would welcome any info you have about volume and how to use it profitably.

yeah, I didn't look at any compounding worksheet, because I made my own sheets and have lots of...
  • #6,657
  • May 27, 2010 12:49pm May 27, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Paulette
Ok - here goes...

I put a demo trade on 25 May Order to open on the 1.3250 level with a 50pip SL which netted a neat 250 pips till I stopped it out just now. On the chart it is the top orange rectangle;

My live trade today was based on retesting the 50%fib of the purple fib (see lower orange rectangle), which is based on the huge retrace of last week. Entry & TP's indicated on chart...

and now she looks like she is dropping further towards TP3... Lets see, one day I am gonna have the gutts to just let it run...

Trade safe
P
Now thats what make the dicussion lively .... as the saying goes .... a picture is worth a thousand words. You have had some good entries and are pipping well .
With respect to letting it run what you can do with your final lot it to trail the SL a few pips below/above the price bar on 1up higher TF ..so you will stay with the action if it decides to go beyond the last take profit point.
  • #6,658
  • May 27, 2010 12:51pm May 27, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting Paulette
Custos,

PS no words from me tomorrow, I am assisting in supervising a school outing for a group of 6yr olds - I will be no-FX-stressed after that lot...

Back on Monday... Trade safe...
Ok .. have a safe tip ... and watch those kiddes.
  • #6,659
  • May 27, 2010 12:53pm May 27, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting Paulette

Volume - hmmm, I have boxed it as an indicator ...
Can you elaborate on this.
  • #6,660
  • May 27, 2010 4:38pm May 27, 2010 4:38pm
Watching for a candle close below TL & local support to short UJ back with the regular downward action. Of course, continued strength would warrant buying pullbacks until said hourly close below TL & supports.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...h_uj052710.jpg
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