Trend Trading All Pairs

hehe, of course we do. Awesome day today, really hot summer weather and good pips flowing in.

this one is breaking down the triangle ....retest would be warranted in my opinion.

This one appears to be setting up nicely.... going for a retest rightnow.

would be really interesting to see what is going to happen... I am waiting for some retraces and then back in...

Bagged some lovely pips on Cad/Jpy, setup a limit order just below 85.50 as confluence of 50fib, S/R and RN & TL was at 85.50... Just closed 50% of that trade @ 82.50, now ready to trail the rest with a SL, hard stop currently at 84.00...

The public holiday yesterday gave me a day off as I decided not to risk it - in hind sight hmmm - rules are rules are rules, if it goes against the bank OUCH!

trade safe

Hi Guys,

am watching a few potentials, waiting on retracements to complete - unless Korea unleashes all sorts of nasty things:

All these levels are confluence of: TL, 50% fib, S/R, RN to within a range of 20 pips - not placing orders to open as yet, ideally I want them to test Fib61 and then resume the trend again.

EJ: 111.60 @ Fib 50 OR 112.27 @ fib 61
EU: 1.2425 @ Fib 50 OR 1.2448 @ fib 61
Cad/J: 84.04 @ Fib 50 OR 84.50 @ fib 61
AJ: 73.77 @ Fib 50 OR 74.20 @ fib 61
UChf: 1.157 @ Fib 50 OR 1.1545 @ fib 61

just watching these to see how things develop...

Trade safe

Just taking a sneak peek from my work ..... i'll reivew in the evening for anything else that may be churning out.....

Ciao

Custos ... looks busy with ForexTester .... he is testing the life out of his strategies ......

yes, I actually am testing so much out. Stuff I thought would work doesn't, and stuff I thought would not work does. This is so enlightening. But still gotta do more testing. That software is gonna keep me busy for the next 6 months at least, if not longer.
Totally awesome.

With full features its even better ... which is why i bought it immediately its quite reasonably priced as well.

This pair is setting up pretty good for a reversal... I would wait for the breakdown and retest of the support nearby.

Lets see how it unfolds.

well, in a previous post I mentioned that I bought it already.

So, I've been working on testing a range trading methodology the last couple of days. Astonishingly, it does remarkably well.
The basic idea is:
1. Mark up the chart with S/R levels
2. When price approaches an S/R level, enter (in expection for a bounce) and put your stop behind the next (e.g. lower) S/R level and Profit target before the next (e.g. higher) S/R level.
3. If price breaks the S/R level, wait for it to hit the S/L or to retest the broken S/R level to enter now at the opposite direction and close out the losing trade.
That procedure goes on at every S/R level.
This by itself has already shown to be very profitable.

With a trend bias twist it can even get more profitable.
1. In addition to marking up the S/R levels, mark up all trendlines to determine trend-bias.
2. When with the trend, take out half at your profit target, let the rest ride and trail your stop behind S/R levels
3. When against the trend, do as written above.

And that works for everything from monthly down to h1 (didn't test the other lower time-frames yet). And amazingly, the beast gbp/jpy also can get handled by applying this strategy, at least for my short testing I did thus far.

Now to the drawbacks of this strategy: When against the trend, the R:R is either very close to 1:1 or even negative, but apparently the win/loss is so high that this doesn't matter much. When with the trend of course the expected R:R is going to be positive.

and this strategy just uses the basic two no-brainer assumptions about trading:
the trend is your friend
buy at support, sell at resistance

Anyways, just wanted to share what I got, maybe a good discussion can result from it. (better than boring trade calls)

Quoting Custos

Disliked

So, I've been working on testing a range trading methodology the last couple of days. Astonishingly, it does remarkably well.
The basic idea is:
1. Mark up the chart with S/R levels
(Which TFs you are marking the S/R on...

Ignored

Good discussion indeed .... trade calls can be boring ... hey its good to get something going until we keep discussing some interesting topics as they come up.



crap .... i wrote down a detail response within your reply and now when i post it everything is gone! ...just showing this last line above

haha, I was already wondering which discussion you are referring to, since most of the people are just apparently reading through without contributing, as usual.

Hi Guys

short EU, 1.23, trade now at BE

EDIT: out...

only contrib I have as I have not bought the toy, but opted to join Jacko group...

Trade safe
P

yes ... i'll attempt again in a couple of hours ... i am at my office now.
But good points though. ....Hasta la vista.

I like your no-brainer assumptions as people will argue these 2 points for hours and get personal instead of slowing those darn brainwaves and get sensible...

GBP/JPY - 2 key elements for me before I trade this "bit of volatility", JPY strength vs GBP strenght and then USD/JPY, in addition that is too all other sensible trading rules. Having said that, GJ has paid me more good pips that what it has taken off me, much more...

I generally use a 70 pip SL which I bring to BE @ +40, once she is out of the blocks, she either keeps going or makes a comeback...

anyway - enjoy the new toy and trade safe

thanks paulette for the points you bring up. yep, gbp/jpy definitely does require larger than usual stop losses, but also gives out larger than usual profits. It's a kind of dynamic thing.

Anyways, gbp/jpy has paid me 200 pips today. Not to mention the other pairs, but gbp/jpy just has remarkable returns in terms of pips.

Custos,
I quickly tried to reconstruct some point/Qs i was thinking this morning .....

Lets go over S/R levels from the perspective of smaller TF trades (M30 upto M5)
When you are trading on these TF would you mark S/R starting from monthly down to H4 or would you simply mark the S/R and confluence levels on H1 and go with that …. I believe some traders trading on M5 & M15 would simply take H1 as the highest TF.

Have you tried marking confluence levels on Daily, weekly, Monthly TFs and trade against those levels on the M5 or M15 TF.

When attempting a counter trend trade on M5 to M15 …. Which TF S/R + Confluence level would you consider to be safest to play with.


Also have you tried incorporating Dollar Index & COT report for longer term trades …such as on the Daily chart.

Lets discuss some other aspects of trading like Price Action (such as inside bars, outside bars, key reversals, pin bars) , trading psychology and lesson learned , how to conquer boredom.

I'll be in touch.

now that's exactly the kind of discussion I like.

Well, the strategy I tested out is time-frame independent. Meaning, if I am on the e.g. h1, I will only mark h1 S/R levels, and disregard any lower or higher time-frame levels and just trade from the h1 chart.

Concerning your question with trading smaller tfs with higher tf S/R levels. I definitely think that this will work as well. It's just a matter of testing out what kind of conluence we need to get a higher win/loss and potentiall high R:R.

I think a major problem with drawing S/R levels on all kinds of tfs is that you lose perspective. There are so many levels to consider, so many tfs. You will kind of lose track which level is right now important. At least for me it is still hard. However, I agree that confluences of levels have a very high probability, meaning, if I can see it on the weekly, then I can see it on the lower time-frames as well (time-frame confluence). That is why higher time-frames are always more significant.
Well, counter trend trades get less and less profitable the lower your time-frame is and here is why:
first reason: spread cost, that will be more significant on lower timeframes.
second reason: session, that basically means that normally, if you trade 5 to 15 min time-frame in the london session, then price will just go, the momentum during that session will kick all counter-trend trades out. I always believe that if you trade 5 to 15 min, sticking with the trend is better, since you wanna be in direction of momentum.

Dollar index and COT report: Let's say I tried and failed. They are for sure useful, but in the end, the COT report is way too long-term for me and the dollar index shows me the same info I get from looking at several usd crosses. But there is for sure a way to use those things too in a profitable way, I just have not found it yet.

Now to PA, my favorite topic. I think those candle stick or bar formations are just the beginning of understanding price action. They are "prototypical", a kind of frame put around PA. Example: Price going up to a trendline and then retracing all the way back down all within an hour is then called a pin bar on the hourly time-frame. My basic point here is, markets are not perfect and won't always show up those exact formations, but understanding the core principle (buying and selling) behind those prototypical candle stick formations is the key to understand market behavior and will then enable us to make more informed decision in more and more market situations no matter how the candle looks, because you can interpret PA behind this candle without it having to look like the best candle ever.
Furthermore, what I also believe is important (and that I learned from brv) are candle closes, especially on h1 and lower, since those time-frames close for all people around the world at the same time. If price breaks a S/R level to the downside and closes below it, that is a very important sign that the level will very likely not hold. If price breaks a S/R level to the downside and closes back above it, that is a good sign that for now the S/R level will hold.
Well, market psychology is such an interesting topic, could go on for days probably.
How to conquer boredom: watch TV at the same time , or trade lower time-frames with small lot-sizes. Don't force trades
Lessons learned: god, never revenge trade, never double up, refrain from any kind of martingale system. go with the flow, never buy against resistance or sell against support,...
and trading psychology: this is a marathon, not a sprint. make small manageable bets and try to win reasonable returns. The extraordinary returns will come with time when you understand the markets better. But that takes time. Make a trade log, do some statistical analysis on your trades to find out which type of trade, which time-frame, which session... suits you best. And never get emotional.
I have to say, I don't even see the money anymore I am winning or losing. For me the percent are just important, no matter how much money that represents.

so, what do other guys and girls think about those topics?
Hope I didn't miss any question, if I did, tell me and I will answer it tomorrow, now heading to my bed, getting late here in europe. See you folks!