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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #301
  • May 21, 2010 8:30am May 21, 2010 8:30am
Thanks for the answers.

Quoting DanUK
Hi boz5,

Sorry it seems I missed your post... answers marked up in blue for you...



Regards,

Dan
  • #302
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:50pm Jun 5, 2010 2:50pm
Just subscribing....thanks for all your feedback to the questions asked by many others, I have learned a lot already.
  • #303
  • Jun 8, 2010 1:52pm Jun 8, 2010 1:52pm
Dan,

I would like to address this question.

So which style you find more profittable? As I remember you were able to make some 4-500 pips on average in 2009 ith the trailing SL methode. That is some 10-13% monthly profit if you ricked 2.5% on 100 pips and you did not increase your position. But, I guess, you may have increased your position size the next month adding your profit to your capital.

So, what seems to be more profittable? 2010 or 2009? I would bare in mind that the currenc economic situation gives anexcellent trend. Well, last year was also excellent trend....

By this I mean the style should fit to the times. So say after the EU looks like bottoming, one could just avoud trading till the new directon is established or try to use your 2009 strategy. What say you?
Kind Regards zol
  • #304
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:23am Jun 11, 2010 2:23am
Quoting DanUK
Well I still haven't gotten together my trading results and posted them here as I intended... this is in part due to my posts over on my other thread - instead of posting things twice (here and there) I've decided to discuss trades taken/being considered on the Trend Trading Chart Thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=187619 and will post my results as they close on my journal, here - rather than just letting this journal die!

So to get things going, today I closed my EUR/AUD trades, as follows:

12/01/10 Sell...
Wow great job Dan, basically you pyramided your positions ? Like, when the signal came, you place the trade, trail stop it and start looking for the next entry ?
  • #305
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:45am Jun 11, 2010 2:45am
Quoting luqmanz
Wow great job Dan, basically you pyramided your positions ? Like, when the signal came, you place the trade, trail stop it and start looking for the next entry ?
You got it... and I think you will be surprised when I post my results for the half year at the end of this month. I'm not saying that to blow my own horn as I hadn't realised just how much I would make by doing this... at the start of the new trend it takes quite some time to start to show a decent profit but once that trend really develops the money just keeps piling on!

I'm not saying it is p*** easy - I do actually agonize for days over every single trade I make but I am saying that it is actually quite simple!

Regards,

Dan
  • #306
  • Jun 12, 2010 3:00am Jun 12, 2010 3:00am
Quoting DanUK
I'm not saying it is p*** easy - I do actually agonize for days over every single trade I make but I am saying that it is actually quite simple!

Regards,

Dan

Forgive me if this has been asked and answered previously Dan. What risk do you normally use per trade? I would think that considering you are relying on larger movements in the trend that you would consider putting more than 3% at a time? Just curious how you tackle this part.

Thanks again Dan!
  • #307
  • Edited 8:18am Jun 15, 2010 1:28am | Edited 8:18am
Dan,

Good to see that GBP & EUR trends have resumed to normal service

Rob

EDIT: Perhaps I spoke too soon.
  • #308
  • Jun 18, 2010 1:09pm Jun 18, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting CharlesSA
Forgive me if this has been asked and answered previously Dan. What risk do you normally use per trade? I would think that considering you are relying on larger movements in the trend that you would consider putting more than 3% at a time? Just curious how you tackle this part.

Thanks again Dan!
Hello,

I used to trade 2% per 100 pips (when I was following the 4 hourly version). I now trade 1% per 100 pips however I do not use a fixed risk per trade - I tend to limit positions as best I can to between 200 - 300 pips (2 to 3% initial risk) however there may be circumstances where I feel it necessary to put a little more or a little less on the table (based on my evaluation of the recent highs, lows, fibs, trendlines etc).

Taking the longer term trades allows me to be a little more flexible with these kind of rules as the whole trading strategy is a little more forgiving if you enter a bit out of time.

Regards,

Dan
  • #309
  • Jun 18, 2010 1:10pm Jun 18, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting priceaction
Dan,

Good to see that GBP & EUR trends have resumed to normal service

Rob

EDIT: Perhaps I spoke too soon.
Hi Rob,

So it was you who pushed prices up again!

I reckon we might see a return to the downtrend next week!

Regards,

Dan
  • #310
  • Jun 18, 2010 1:37pm Jun 18, 2010 1:37pm
I mentioned on the Trend Trading Chart Thread that I was also interested in developing an intraday strategy to alleviate some of the boredom that I get from long term trading!

For the past few weeks I have been messing about with a strategy that I used to dable in... (Coolshades won't be pleased as it's based on a 15m chart!!).

The method is essentially a mix of what was originally taught to me by Acumen, Islander and Eyevoltage over on the "Psych Levels, Pivots and Trendlines - Resurrected" thread. I haven't posted on there for some time but the guys were always very helpful and if my intraday trading does turn out to be successful I have them to thank for their guidance!

Basically I am using a 15m chart, entries will be primarily London session. I plot the standard daily pivot points and the round number (00/50) psych levels.

I am looking for the traditional candlestick patterns or VSA setups that occur throughout the session, ideally at the levels plotted or at good old fashioned support and resistance levels.

I haven't fully ironed out trade management yet but at the moment I am keeping it fairly simple. I am risking 2% (of a small live testing account) per trade and looking for R:R of 1:3. I will move my stop to BE once I have achieved 1:1 and have my profit target at 1:3.

I will however check on my trades and if there are any major levels in the way and/or I get reversal signals that suggest price is u-turning on me then I will either move to BE quicker or adjust my stops to achieve some profit if I see fit.

I am only testing at the moment and I might open a separate journal to track my progress/mistakes/thoughts etc.

Just for fun here is today's trade on G/U (I have labeled the candles on the chart as follows):

1. Just after London Open we get a high volume buying climax at the (possible) end of an uptrend pushing price up to R1.

2. Bearish reaction with a lower close of R1 (possibly suggesting that professional money may have been pushing price up the bar before shorting).

3. Entry (short) below the bearish bar @ 1.4862 (green line, stop is shown as the red line).

4. Price achieves 1:1 (move to breakeven).

5. Price achieves 1:2.

6. Take Profit achieved at 1:3 (6% profit).

I have a similar trade open on E/U at the moment if anyone is interested - I'll post a chart once it's complete! Hasn't achieved the same profit as G/U but not to worry!

Regards,

Dan


PS... My knowledge of VSA and the appropriate terminology is a bit newbie-ish so forgive me if I mislabel things!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #311
  • Jun 18, 2010 1:40pm Jun 18, 2010 1:40pm
Hi, DanUK.

I have a quick question for you.
I see that you rely on technical analysis to pinpoint a selling/buying price by using Jacko's strategy.

But, do you also follow the fundamentals (and try to to make prevision about what will happen next)?
If yes, what kind of newspaper, news blotter, etc.. are you following?

In my case, i also use Jacko's strategy, but i also heavily read news:
i mainly read The Wall Street Journal to have summaries of what happened during the day and i usually take a look at the real time forex news of daily Fx (but it's mostly useless informations).
But i also like reading The Economist.

I don't know why, but i like reading news about economics/politics/businesses.
  • #312
  • Jun 18, 2010 2:09pm Jun 18, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting Dupont
I don't know why, but i like reading news about economics/politics/businesses.
Hi,

Well I guess that's because you are interested in what you are doing, which I think helps!

I did start reading a lot of news/economic reports etc but to be honest I found they hindered my trading. I started trying to guess what was going to happen next rather than trade what was happening on my screen! Not a good idea! My belief is that the charts reflect what is happening in the fundamental world and therefore everything I really need to know is condensed into graphical form... much easier for me to understand lol!

Personally I enjoy reading politics... it's my first love really! Trading always comes second to politics!!

I do still tend to read the reasons behind what has happened... bloomberg and the FT are both good resources for this. But I do it afterwards, just to keep me informed really!

Regards,

Dan

PS... The one exception to the above is forecasting from Hans-Guenter Redeker of BNP Paribas, London (you can search for him at bloomberg) is often very informative and pretty accurate!!
  • #313
  • Jun 18, 2010 3:23pm Jun 18, 2010 3:23pm
Ok, the Euro trade I mentioned earlier has just closed out... dissection as follows:

1. Again, not long into the London Open and we get another high volume buying climax at the (possible) end of an uptrend pushing price up through 1.2400 and the prior day high (magenta line).

2. Bearish reaction with a lower close off prior day high (possibly suggesting that professional money may have been pushing price up the bar before shorting) closing below 1.2400.

3. Entry (short) below the bearish bar @ 1.2395 (green line, stop is shown as the red line).

4. Price achieves 1:1 (move to breakeven).

5. Price achieves 1:2.

6. After a series of low volume candles and the fact that it is Friday evening and the market is due to close soon I decided to tighten my stop... which got taken out in due course giving me a 1:1 trade (2% profit).

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #314
  • Jun 19, 2010 12:37am Jun 19, 2010 12:37am
hmm,

you are making life difficult for me. not sure if i will be able to monitor 15m charts.

couple of qs:

what charting package do you use?
what indicators for pivot points and volume

btw you should seriously give thought to having a skype room for an hour each day....! share the wisdom commander!

Quoting DanUK
Ok, the Euro trade I mentioned earlier has just closed out... dissection as follows:

1. Again, not long into the London Open and we get another high volume buying climax at the (possible) end of an uptrend pushing price up through 1.2400 and the prior day high (magenta line).

2. Bearish reaction with a lower close off prior day high (possibly suggesting that professional money may have been pushing price up the bar before shorting) closing below 1.2400.

[color=black][font=Verdana]3....
  • #315
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:37am Jun 19, 2010 3:37am
Quoting DanUK
I mentioned on the Trend Trading Chart Thread that I was also interested in developing an intraday strategy to alleviate some of the boredom that I get from long term trading!

For the past few weeks I have been messing about with a strategy that I used to dable in... (Coolshades won't be pleased as it's based on a 15m chart!!).

[color=black][font=Verdana]The method is essentially a mix of what was originally taught to me by Acumen, Islander and Eyevoltage over...

Very interesting stuff Dan...I was always under the impression that decent / reliable volume data was not available for Forex...will need to look into this some more. Is the thread you mentioned the above the best thread to read more about this trading method?

Thanks
  • #316
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:00am Jun 19, 2010 4:00am
You.ve certainly caught my interest...I too would love to explore this further. Are you serious about the skype thing??
rehards
Mitch

Quoting coolshades
hmm,

you are making life difficult for me. not sure if i will be able to monitor 15m charts.

couple of qs:

what charting package do you use?
what indicators for pivot points and volume

btw you should seriously give thought to having a skype room for an hour each day....! share the wisdom commander!
  • #317
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:04am Jun 19, 2010 4:04am
Quoting DanUK
I mentioned on the Trend Trading Chart Thread that I was also interested in developing an intraday strategy to alleviate some of the boredom that I get from long term trading!
The method is essentially...
Dan,

All the best with the intraday strategy.

You might find some useful information here - which trade price (Sho) teaches .

In a nutshell, his method is based on 15 min chart momentum, price action and S&R off the 15 min & 4hr charts.

Regards,
Rob
  • #318
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:08am Jun 19, 2010 4:08am
Quoting coolshades
hmm,

you are making life difficult for me. not sure if i will be able to monitor 15m charts.

couple of qs:

what charting package do you use?
what indicators for pivot points and volume

btw you should seriously give thought to having a skype room for an hour each day....! share the wisdom commander!
Hi Coolshades,

Yes the problem with 15m charts is the day job!! I dare say there will be days that I won't be able to trade intraday because of that, which is why I am not trying to replace my main trading method with this - it's just an add on, for entertainment more than anything lol!

At the moment I am using Alpari UK's MT4 with FXI Pivots and the Better Volume 1.4 indicator. They are available to download here at FF - if you can't find them let me know and I'll post them.

I understand that eSignal is supposed to be one of the better charting packages for Volume - if I find that my intraday trading is starting to do well then I will think about getting it. I think there is a 30 day trial available which I am considering to test volume on longer timeframes, H1+ as I find the standard volume indicators better on shorter timeframes but I am told a better service provider would improve the volume signals for longer timeframes - in which case this strategy could be turned into a longer term one... perhaps with H1 or H4 charts and Weekly Pivots, which might be easier for people who can't monitor the 15m charts.

A Skype room... that's an interesting concept but unfortunately I don't have the time at the moment! My wife occasionally works in the evenings leaving me with my two little boys to clean up after, lol!

Regards,

Dan
  • #319
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:20am Jun 19, 2010 4:20am
Quoting lovejoy80
Very interesting stuff Dan...I was always under the impression that decent / reliable volume data was not available for Forex...will need to look into this some more. Is the thread you mentioned the above the best thread to read more about this trading method?

Thanks
Hi,

I think it can vary from broker to broker so reliability is probably not as good as other markets but from an intraday perspective the tick data volume seems to be good enough. There are other options available from people like eSignal who use data from lots of different brokers so you get a better overall picture - of course you have to pay for that though!!

Acumen's thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=98028 is very good for a variety of different ways to approach intraday trading, based around pivot levels, trendlines, psych levels (round numbers) and candlestick/PA setups. I found posts by Acumen and Islander to be of particular value but most of all it was the approach used by Eyevoltage that really made things click for me. Back then I did attempt a few intraday trades based on their collective teachings and I had a fair bit of success. I decided to go longer term though as I didn't really have the time to focus on intraday setups back then (still don't have that much time for it really!!).

I think towards the end of Islander's regular contributions he started incorporating VSA but I don' think that thread particularly focuses on Volume too much. I would recommend reading http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 as a start and http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241760 from malcolmb14 - who seems to have a really solid grasp on VSA.

Regards,

Dan
  • #320
  • Jun 19, 2010 4:21am Jun 19, 2010 4:21am
Quoting priceaction
Dan,

All the best with the intraday strategy.

You might find some useful information here - which trade price (Sho) teaches .

In a nutshell, his method is based on 15 min chart momentum, price action and S&R off the 15 min & 4hr charts.

Regards,
Rob
Thanks Rob, I'll check it out!
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