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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #226,321
  • May 13, 2010 9:11am May 13, 2010 9:11am
Looks like a Harami on the 1 hr, looking for the same on the 4 hr.

Jim
  • #226,322
  • May 13, 2010 9:12am May 13, 2010 9:12am
I am still long to 4826, stop is at 4675
  • #226,323
  • May 13, 2010 9:13am May 13, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Bull_Bear
I wanted to respond to this last night but i had to jet, so am getting around to it today.

Just wanna say if there are sound reason to exit a trade and your currently holding a loosing position from a winning position to begin with, its makes it harder to close a trade out knowing that. This you must overcome and not let your emtional responses take over your psyc of trading.

I closed out 2 loosing position and have now recovered completely from it last night.

Don't dwell on your losing trade, look forward to the winning trade, that is your...
My problem was emotional and greedy, I have decided that the seven deadly sins fit in perfectly to trading and how to do it wrong!

I had a +70 trade that the trailing stop closed as we took a dip back down to 15003.

Being greedy, I jumped back in again when it started retracing, only for the @rse to fall out of it and the big drop kicking in. Because I was watching it manually I hadnt put a SL on (BIG MISTAKE) and couldnt close it manually until it had tumbled over 100 pips (kept getting an error trying to close it).

Rather than admitting defeat, I immediately got back in trying to get another trade on a rebound, and yes, it dropped again, but this was impulsive and lead without thought, just following what everyone else seemed to be doing. Being convinced it would recover as it slowed down, I left it as it looked like it was trying to get back up again, but it didnt, so another bag of pips lost. End result, ended up 130 down.

Emotions, get rid of them (as bbakker has also said).

Greed, get rid of that.

Impulsive trade, stop that.

Willpower, it doesnt make the trend change in your favour, cut it out.

Lessons learned, I'm out for a while and listening to the great advice that I'm being passed by the people on here that I truly admire (not getting gushy). You guys that post your trades, take the time to help those of us who make mistakes, and even better, hold your hands up to your own mistakes to show you are human, great bunch!

Bull_Bear, bbakker, cloggie, Magix, digger and numerous others I have great respect for and I truly am thankful (as no doubt are other noobs) for your help, patience and constructive criticisms.
Back to basics, it has to be for me!
  • #226,324
  • May 13, 2010 9:13am May 13, 2010 9:13am
Quoting TheCatsPJs
I might be well wrong but after 231 pip range im hoping its had enough down for today and we will get a rise towards London closing hope my fingers dont end up smelling HAHAHA
oh, so u're basing it on "hope"??
  • #226,325
  • May 13, 2010 9:14am May 13, 2010 9:14am
4826 is 61.8 Fib level of the last push down, by the way

Quoting Nene
I am still long to 4826, stop is at 4675
  • #226,326
  • May 13, 2010 9:17am May 13, 2010 9:17am
Quoting TheCatsPJs
I might be well wrong but after 231 pip range im hoping its had enough down for today and we will get a rise towards London closing hope my fingers dont end up smelling HAHAHA

I am still expecting NY to set a lower low for today. Daily ranges have been out of wack for a long time on Cable and I have been putting it further down my list of priorities over the last few weeks. Look at the last 5 days, we had an ADR of over 270, almost double what the norm is.

In the last 6 months ADR's have continued to creep up to levels we haven't seen since back in 08.

Until we have a few weeks of ADR's coming back to a more reasonable 140-150 I am actually not too ontowards of seeing days of 300 drops from the London open.

Today we had a good drop from London and an area of consolidation with a bearish continuation. NY is now doing its thing and wants to see that low for today.

We may end the day again at a solid support with it just sitting there for hours before Tokyo gives us the retrace. There is not a lot in the PA to warrant NY giving us that retrace.
  • #226,327
  • May 13, 2010 9:19am May 13, 2010 9:19am
Quoting qwertymyfx
oh, so u're basing it on "hope"??
I think that the market will do what it will do and all we can do is best try to read it and hope we are right!
Trade what you see never what you think!
  • #226,328
  • May 13, 2010 9:23am May 13, 2010 9:23am
I'm getting the same feel here. if it wanted to go up it wouldn't be hanging around the figure at 4700... also the stock market is bearish today... from an elliott wave standpoint it looks like we are either in an extended wave three down or waiting for a wave five down. ain't nothin' up about it from what I can see...

Quoting cloggie
I am still expecting NY to set a lower low for today. Daily ranges have been out of wack for a long time on Cable and I have been putting it further down my list of priorities over the last few weeks. Look at the last 5 days, we had an ADR of over 270, almost double what the norm is.

In the last 6 months ADR's have continued to creep up to levels we haven't seen since back in 08.

Until we have a few weeks of ADR's coming back to a more reasonable 140-150 I am actually not too ontowards of seeing days of 300 drops from the London open.

Today...
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #226,329
  • May 13, 2010 9:25am May 13, 2010 9:25am
I've been out all day so missed the action, however, I have to admit that I took a (low bet) long last night after looking into what Cloggie had said, bagged 60 pips from it (thanks again Cloggie).

Currently not looking good for cable, however it's bouncing around the 61.8 mark of the Friday low -> Monday high and it looks like the 5th time we've been here in the last week and last Friday was the big (but temporary) breach.

Daily chart going back a few months shows we've been in a channel for a while and had a bust out for most of March below before coming back in. May is toying with the LTL at the moment.

Anyway, that's just how I was reading it at the moment, today going below 14695 and staying there looks like it's downhill again like last week, but if we dont get back up to 14800 soon too, we could be going down regardless.

And I'm more than happy for people to point holes in this because I'm just starting again from scratch!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 32 KB
Back to basics, it has to be for me!
  • #226,330
  • May 13, 2010 9:44am May 13, 2010 9:44am
if you think it's going down so why you bought sir? no SL?
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #226,331
  • May 13, 2010 9:48am May 13, 2010 9:48am
Don't mean to hijack the thread, but can I get some feedback from you guys here? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3721541 I would love to see what you think about this

Thanks!
  • #226,332
  • May 13, 2010 9:58am May 13, 2010 9:58am
Clearly cable is in a downtrend.

1.4635 is the 1.27 extension of the Monday high to tuesday low & 1.4524ish is the 1.618 ext.
Sitting on S2 right now (using IG Ind adv charts)
  • #226,333
  • May 13, 2010 9:59am May 13, 2010 9:59am
Buy. SL 15 pips.
chart latter if it's work.
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #226,334
  • May 13, 2010 9:59am May 13, 2010 9:59am
Thanks for the heads up on that guys got taken out at BE had a conference call and now see that would of munched my stoploss
cheers cloggie and hhitch i owe ya
Trade what you see never what you think!
  • #226,335
  • May 13, 2010 10:01am May 13, 2010 10:01am
Quoting cloggie
Hmmm, I added to my short.

Not wanting to be greedy and seeing that NY got its way, I closed all my shorts for today at 4673.

Not saying I am going to entertain a long though from here. Just going to watch the PA around the London close to see if NY was happy with that low or not.
  • #226,336
  • May 13, 2010 10:02am May 13, 2010 10:02am
Quoting pablo_fernandez
Don't mean to hijack the thread, but can I get some feedback from you guys here? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3721541 I would love to see what you think about this

Thanks!
Better to retire from one's job and be at the screen - then no iphone stuff is needed. Quit selling your stuff Pablo and get trading....
  • #226,337
  • May 13, 2010 10:03am May 13, 2010 10:03am


I could be wrong but my feeling is that it might make it down to 1.4600 which happens to be the next figure as well as the 78.6% retracement.

Quoting TheCatsPJs
Thanks for the heads up on that guys got taken out at BE had a conference call and now see that would of munched my stoploss
cheers cloggie and hhitch i owe ya
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #226,338
  • May 13, 2010 10:06am May 13, 2010 10:06am
you might be right about that

Quoting cloggie
Not wanting to be greedy and seeing that NY got its way, I closed all my shorts for today at 4673.

Not saying I am going to entertain a long though from here. Just going to watch the PA around the London close to see if NY was happy with that low or not.
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #226,339
  • May 13, 2010 10:08am May 13, 2010 10:08am
Quoting TheCatsPJs
Thanks for the heads up on that guys got taken out at BE had a conference call and now see that would of munched my stoploss
cheers cloggie and hhitch i owe ya
Everyone on this thread seems to get out at BE. Great going! Am I the only one whose P&L takes a hit when they get it wrong?
  • #226,340
  • May 13, 2010 10:10am May 13, 2010 10:10am
no dude you're not alone

Quoting gammase1
Everyone on this thread seems to get out at BE. Great going! Am I the only one whose P&L takes a hit when they get it wrong?
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
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