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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #225,781
  • May 11, 2010 5:24pm May 11, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting hhitch
Cloggie I am just learning about Brit politics, I did follow along the election coverage on BBC thanks to BBaker's link... from what I can see from here on out it seems like it might be ho-hum reaction (or lack thereof) would you concur? it's more like now we're weighted down with the sheer volume of "difficult" (Cameron's word) work ahead of us and perhaps all other bullishness may already be priced in? I find it hard to imagine anyone is going to get all excited about buying the GBP now... would that make sense to you? I'm not asking for market...

Tomorrow we should slowly see the concessions that Cameron had to give to the Libdems. The importance for us traders is that Cameron keeps Osborne as Chancellor and does not give that away to the Libdems, having Clegg as deputy prime minister is a role with no substance really as he is not running a department.

The Tories always said that they would start cutting the deficit and the debt from the word go, as long as this has not been diluted by any deal with the libdems that should be good for cable and keep the Gilts down. The rotten apple again is of course Europe as they have just given Trichet a blank cheque book for buying up treasury debt there, keeping their prices artificially down. The market may well react negatively on Gilt prices here even though the Tories won, the normal trend for Cable has always been up after a Tory win. This of course is not an outright win and historically coalitions have never worked in the UK.

I am keeping a close eye on the news tomorrow to form a longer term outlook on Cable. As a precaution I personally closed my long term shorts in anticipation of a move up. Rather safe then sorry here.
  • #225,782
  • May 11, 2010 5:28pm May 11, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting thinkman
Thanks Cloggie. Yes that makes sense, I guess it knowing the rumors are my problem -could do with knowing someone in the City! What is your sentiment when Tokyo opens? (apols for all the questions!)

4914 has now been tested twice on the M30 and H1, that becomes the key here, if that holds during Tokyo open we may well see a higher high and Tokyo is going to give up on its traditional retrace, it all depends on how they value cable tonight in light of what has happened today, we did have a solid move up during London with no real retrace and are still due for one.
  • #225,783
  • May 11, 2010 5:31pm May 11, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting cloggie
Tomorrow we should slowly see the concessions that Cameron had to give to the Libdems. The importance for us traders is that Cameron keeps Osborne as Chancellor and does not give that away to the Libdems, having Clegg as deputy prime minister is a role with no substance really as he is not running a department.

The Tories always said that they would start cutting the deficit and the debt from the word go, as long as this has not been diluted by any deal with the libdems that should be good for cable and keep the Gilts down. The rotten apple again...

good point i think its better to have a look at other pairs for now fiber is a little bet clear
  • #225,784
  • May 11, 2010 5:34pm May 11, 2010 5:34pm
this is really good information, Cloggie. Thank you so much.

Quoting cloggie
Tomorrow we should slowly see the concessions that Cameron had to give to the Libdems. The importance for us traders is that Cameron keeps Osborne as Chancellor and does not give that away to the Libdems, having Clegg as deputy prime minister is a role with no substance really as he is not running a department.

The Tories always said that they would start cutting the deficit and the debt from the word go, as long as this has not been diluted by any deal with the libdems that should be good for cable and keep the Gilts down. The rotten apple again...
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #225,785
  • May 11, 2010 5:35pm May 11, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting hhitch
this is really good information, Cloggie. Thank you so much.

Your first indication of how the market feels about this is Gilt prices, keep an eye on those. Cable will follow
  • #225,786
  • May 11, 2010 5:40pm May 11, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting cloggie
Your first indication of how the market feels about this is Gilt prices, keep an eye on those. Cable will follow
Is gilt gold by the way?
  • #225,787
  • May 11, 2010 5:40pm May 11, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting thinkman
Is gilt gold by the way?

Gilts are UK treasury bills
  • #225,788
  • May 11, 2010 6:02pm May 11, 2010 6:02pm
ah-ha.

Quoting cloggie
Gilts are UK treasury bills
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #225,789
  • May 11, 2010 6:07pm May 11, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting hhitch
ah-ha.
Look what happened to the euro, the interest rate of the Greek debt continued to rise and the euro fell soon afterwards. An increase in the rate of borrowing for the UK government will show a lack of confidence by the markets and a drop in Cable will follow soon after, a tightening of the short term debt will mean the markets believe that the Tories will reduce the debt making it cheaper to borrow and thereby making the Sterling a currency that offers safety and we will see cable increase, especially against the euro, maybe not against the yen yet, that will take a total change of sentiment driven by factors other then cable value.
  • #225,790
  • May 11, 2010 6:09pm May 11, 2010 6:09pm
I just closed my EJ long, it has no momentum and keeping an eye on 4914 for an overnight trade on cable before signing of.
  • #225,791
  • May 11, 2010 6:11pm May 11, 2010 6:11pm
Cloggie that is incredibly astute, as for me, I'm not sure where I would look for the data you are referring to. Is there some exchange I should be watching for the gilt data? I just last week found a live streaming quote for FTSE for the first time.. is that in the ball park?

Quoting cloggie
Look what happened to the euro, the interest rate of the Greek debt continued to rise and the euro fell soon afterwards. An increase in the rate of borrowing for the UK government will show a lack of confidence by the markets and a drop in Cable will follow soon after, a tightening of the short term debt will mean the markets believe that the Tories will reduce the debt making it cheaper to borrow and thereby making the Sterling a currency that offers safety and we will see cable increase, especially against the euro, maybe not against the yen yet,...
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #225,792
  • May 11, 2010 6:13pm May 11, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting hhitch
Cloggie that is incredibly astute, as for me, I'm not sure where I would look for the data you are referring to. Is there some exchange I should be watching for the gilt data? I just last week found a live streaming quote for FTSE for the first time.. is that in the ball park?

I get mine of Bloomberg, not sure where to get a live feed from that is trustworthy, reliable and free, ask around. Anyone?

By the way, we did get that Atif guy banned from here, good riddance I say, keep the thread for traders and by traders.
  • #225,793
  • May 11, 2010 6:16pm May 11, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting cloggie
4914 has now been tested twice on the M30 and H1, that becomes the key here, if that holds during Tokyo open we may well see a higher high and Tokyo is going to give up on its traditional retrace, it all depends on how they value cable tonight in light of what has happened today, we did have a solid move up during London with no real retrace and are still due for one.

4914 held on the open, am long as an overnight trade. We'll see in the morning if Tokyo is going to give up on its retrace.

Goodnight Y'all, see you at Franky.
  • #225,794
  • May 11, 2010 6:19pm May 11, 2010 6:19pm
great work, keep the spam trolls out

Quoting cloggie
I get mine of Bloomberg, not sure where to get a live feed from that is trustworthy, reliable and free, ask around. Anyone?

By the way, we did get that Atif guy banned from here, good riddance I say, keep the thread for traders and by traders.
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #225,795
  • May 11, 2010 6:19pm May 11, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting cloggie
Your first indication of how the market feels about this is Gilt prices, keep an eye on those. Cable will follow
Cloggie, please correct me if I am wrong!

Gilt markets in London open at 07:30 (Just over 7 hours time) and close at 18:00. Prices were rising just before the election and they even had the markets open during the night of the election results. The prices dropped during election night from recent highs, but have held steady over the last two days. Lets see what happens tomorrow in the Gilts market.
  • #225,796
  • May 11, 2010 6:22pm May 11, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting bbakker
Cloggie, please correct me if I am wrong!

Gilt markets in London open at 07:30 (Just over 7 hours time) and close at 18:00. Prices were rising just before the election and they even had the markets open during the night of the election results. The prices dropped during election night from recent highs, but have held steady over the last two days. Lets see what happens tomorrow in the Gilts market.

Spot on. For the 2-yr ones, they are of interest to us, the 10 yr ones are more of interest to longer term traders.
  • #225,797
  • May 11, 2010 6:24pm May 11, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting cloggie
Spot on. For the 2-yr ones, they are of interest to us, the 10 yr ones are more of interest to longer term traders.
Slaap lekker!
  • #225,798
  • May 11, 2010 6:25pm May 11, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting bbakker
Slaap lekker!

Dank je, tot morgen.
  • #225,799
  • May 11, 2010 6:41pm May 11, 2010 6:41pm
some body did clean the house from atif
  • #225,800
  • May 11, 2010 6:43pm May 11, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting kill56
some body did clean the house from atif
That'd be me....

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