Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Close at 5396 for 10pips...can't stay awake already. Have a nice weekend everybody.

While you follow fundamentals, be quick to understand the intrique in forex and chart movement of prices. While i pay only 10% of my trading on fundamentals, 90% is techincal. wether we like it or not in the short term we are heading for some 100pips. Now i feel confortable as an intraday trader taking average 70-150daily than waiting events from government. Most atimes, the movement does not also comform with fundamental news released, then you look clearly at technical, you would know there are regions to be reached b4 the news or events that make big changes to the trend in view. My view......

Would I be crazy to say that before close we could and might see 1.5200? or even a touch under?

I've been waiting for it to get beneath the DP at 1.5262. I think it's possible if wall street continues downwards.

Regardless of who wins on 6 May, there will have to be big cuts in public spending. So what should you buy to protect your finances? asks David Stevenson.

If Britain's politicians – and voters – need a reminder of how high the stakes are over next week's general election result, they need only look south, to Greece. This week, the markets finally lost faith in Greece's ability to repay its debts. Greek bond yields soared and the euro slid. And if we don't sort out our own debts, something similar might happen to Britain.

Our finances are not quite as precarious as those of Greece, but they're not far off. And while Britain can devalue its way out of trouble to an extent, sterling has already fallen by 15% over the past two years. A further slump – or a panic-driven crash – would hardly be ideal. It would drive up inflation, resulting in higher interest rates than our fragile economy can handle. In a worst-case scenario, investors might refuse to lend to us at all.

Indeed, this "fiscal repair job is likely to be the major domestic policy challenge for the next government", as Robert Chote of the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) puts it. The trouble is, it's not an 'easy sell' in terms of votes. Which explains why, although all the parties agree that the deficit must fall, they've been "reticent… in explaining how they would confront the task". With current polls suggesting a hung parliament is a real possibility, this lack of clarity is worrying. Ken Clarke of the Conservatives has warned that the horse-trading and delays involved in a hung-parliament scenario could send the UK into the arms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as markets decide we can't be trusted to put our finances back in order. Others say this is scare-mongering – the three parties agree that the deficit needs to be cut, so co-operating on this key issue shouldn't be a problem.

The good news is that history shows that coalition governments in the UK have been associated with some of the biggest spending cuts of the past century. The bad news is that they've also gone hand-in-hand with some of our worst economic upheavals too. We look at what might happen, and what it means for your investments, below. But first, why do we need to cut the deficit at all?

The state we're in
Gordon Brown is rightly accused of failing to put away any money during Britain's boom times – probably because he thought he'd abolished the business cycle. But the real damage to Britain's finances has been done since 2008. The recession hit the tax take, and government spending was pushed higher by the likes of higher unemployment benefit payouts. Indeed, it's worth noting that the rise in government spending has been largely down to these 'automatic stabilisers'. Brown may talk of having saved the economy, but in fact the government has spent little on specific stimulus packages – it's the Bank of England's interest-rate cuts that have done the heavy lifting.

In any case, our budget deficit (how much the government spends beyond what it gets in taxes) is just under 12%. With government spending accounting for around 50% of GDP, that means the UK now borrows roughly £1 for every £4 it spends. That's unsustainable. The national debt (what we already owe) is already above 60% of GDP, and on current spending trends it will hit 100% over the course of the next parliament.

So far, the brunt of Britain's state shortfall has been borne by the fall in the pound. But that's battered the value of foreign investors' UK holdings. For example, anyone who bought gilts with euros in 2007 will have suffered a 25% drop in the value of their investment. If Britain's financial credibility drops much further, those foreign investors will stop buying until yields have climbed enough to reflect the risks of holding them, and when they're confident they won't lose out on the currency front as well. So despite its drop over the last two years, the pound could yet fall further.

The situation in Greece shows how fast market confidence can vanish. Britain will be given the benefit of the doubt until the election. After 6 May, whoever ends up in No. 10 will face three choices to cut the spending gap. They could sell national assets to raise money. But flogging the nation's bookie (the Tote) and a few toll roads will hardly plug the gap. Raising taxes is an option, but risks making the economy less competitive and crippling the growth we need to get us out of this hole.

So cutting spending has to be at least part of the solution, says Peter Allen in a Lombard Street Research report. "Whatever the election result, the next government will take an axe to [public spending]. With inflation subdued, real growth anaemic and tax at the threshold where higher rates diminish revenues, spending must be brought down not just relative to GDP or in real terms, but less in cash, fewer pounds."

The best way to cut back
So regardless of who wins, Britain is in for a tough few years. The IFS reckons that to meet the budget commitments of any of the three main parties between 2011 and 2015, Britain will require the deepest spending cuts since the 1970s. Hardly the time to be facing political turmoil too, you might think.

But we don't need to panic just yet. There have been three major peacetime public-spending cutbacks in the past century. Each was "associated with a coalition government", says Allen. Of these, probably the model we'd hope to copy would be the 'Geddes Axe' of the 1920s. Straight after World War I, boosted by wartime savings, loose money policies and government job creation, a 'de-mob happy' British economy boomed until summer 1920. But the flipsides were that the government deficit hit 6% of GDP (not as bad as today, but still bad), and the cost of living jumped by 25% in little over a year. So the financial brakes were slammed on hard. Bank rates were raised to 7% while tax rises refilled the state coffers. But the boom quickly turned to bust. Consumer prices plunged 25%. GDP fell by 12% by 1921. And unemployment rose from 2.5% to 20%.

Yet government spending – which had been ramped up during the war – was still too high. An Anti-Waste campaign, backed by the public and the press, gathered momentum. In 1921, a committee headed by Sir Eric Geddes was set up to scour the public sector for waste and suggest cuts. It duly did so. While the government didn't implement all of the recommendations, total spending was cut by nearly 38%. Net public debt didn't rise above its 1920 level again until 1938, as the UK geared up for World War II.

The encouraging parallel for today is that the 'Geddes Axe' first fell under a coalition government, led by Liberal PM David Lloyd George. As Tim Price puts it in his Price Report newsletter: "Coalitions have proven surprisingly able to carry out painful fiscal reform. Perhaps more so than political parties enjoying a majority and desperately wanting to retain it."

It might not be that easy
The Geddes report worked well partly because it had popular support. That's not the case now. Around half of voters see no need for spending cuts, reports the FT. So it'll take a strong government to push them through. The danger is that we end up with something more akin to Britain's last hung parliament, in the 1970s.

By 1976, Britain's finances had been battered by a mix of recession and trade union power. A minority Labour government was dependent on Liberal Party support – which later became the infamous 'Lib-Lab pact'. Inflation had hit an eye-watering 27% in 1975, and the budget deficit had hit 7.5%. Yields on long-dated gilts – the interest rate at which the government had to borrow to fund its deficits – had soared to 16%. A sterling crisis loomed. Chancellor Denis Healey was forced to go cap in hand to the IMF for an emergency loan. "The subsequent austerity programme and 'winter of discontent' doomed Labour to opposition for 18 years and heralded the Thatcher revolution," says Allen.

So those who argue that a hung parliament will be a benign conclusion may well be being over-optimistic. As Ruth Lea of the Institute of Directors puts it: "I find it frankly incredible ... that a hung parliament would see parties work together in perfect harmony to bring down the deficit." And Simon Marsh of Killik puts it this way: "The timing could not be worse... We have the UK staring the prospect of a hung parliament at the same time as the rising risk of sovereign contagion" from Greece.

Spending will fall
Whatever happens, spending will fall. It has to. The election result will merely dictate how much short-term pain is involved. We look below at how to prepare yourself financially. In the longer run, the risk is that future growth is inadequate to fund future state spending, says Hamish McRae in The Independent. "What worries me most isn't the next two to three years – we can see what has to happen. The problem will be the long years stretching on from that. Growth, not government, is the way to fix the UK's economic mess." If the focus falls on higher taxes, rather than lower spending, or we get token spending cuts that focus on easy targets, we might find that even if we avoid a 'gilts strike', our economy is left permanently hobbled with a lower rate of growth. As Allen says, "Come back Geddes, all is forgiven."

Where the axe might fall
"Public spending is divided into three parts," says Peter Allen at Lombard Street Research. "Some can be controlled, like defence and transport. Some could be controlled by changing the rules, like the dole and pensions. And some, like debt interest, cannot be controlled." There are three key elements to possible spending cuts. They must be 'fair', in that they must be seen to benefit the majority at the expense of special interests. They need to be focused enough "to enhance rather than inhibit growth". And they must work.

This will be an enormous challenge, to put it mildly. "Whoever occupies the Chancellor's official residence after 6 May will have a demolition job on their hands," say Nicholas Timmins and Alex Barker in the FT. "On the government's current plans, £37bn will have to be cut from public spending by 2014 if the deficit is to be halved. Without new tax rises, even more will have to be cut in succeeding years to eliminate it."

That £37bn equals about 25% of the entire NHS budget, half the cost of the basic state pension, or ten times the amount spent by the NHS on dentistry. Clearly, these aren't realistic targets for cuts. And the likes of overseas aid have already been promised protection.

"The implications of cutting £37bn from remaining budgets – defence, transport, the environment and energy – are so extreme as to be more or less incredible," says the FT. "They'd involve 20% reductions in just three years from 2011. For defence, that's the equivalent of no longer employing the army. English local authorities have calculated they'd have to save almost the entire cost of the police." Yet we're talking here about the scale of cuts needed merely to reduce the 2014 deficit by half. In other words, even if that £37bn is found, the government will still be spending a lot more than it takes in each year until then. So it has to be done. Yet no party has so far outlined more than £10bn in specific cuts. So where can they possibly begin?

Freezing allowances or benefits, rather than letting them rise in line with inflation, is generally easier to implement than actual cuts. The bonus for the taxman is that 'fiscal drag' kicks in. This means more of us end up paying tax, while others are snared by higher rates, if their incomes rise but their allowances don't. Social security and tax credits together account for nearly 30% of all public spending. Holding all benefits and tax credits at current levels for a year would boost the Treasury's coffers by £4bn. Means testing child benefit could save £5bn.

Reducing funding to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by 10% would save £6bn. Another £3bn could come by stopping primary and secondary school building for three years. Axing plans to build two new aircraft carriers, while delaying London's Crossrail project for three years, would save another £2bn.

But the new government may view spending cuts on the scale needed as "too politically risky to contemplate", says Chris Giles in the FT. So there's "a prospect it will resort to further taxation instead". For example, hiking the basic rate of tax by 3p in the pound would bring in another £12bn, at least until people began to find ways to sidestep it. Then there's the old chestnut of national insurance, another tax in all but name. A 1% hike would snaffle another £7bn. This wouldn't be an option for the Tories, because they've already pledged to reverse New Labour's existing planned hike. Maybe a "fairer" solution would be upping VAT to 20%, which would rake in £12bn. Extending VAT to all zero or lower-rated areas would collect a handy £29bn. And at least it would fall on spenders rather than savers. Right now, that's looking about the best bet around.

I don't think it will ever gets there.. the 5250 is the price overshot the 5280.. , by the way there is a support at 5250 area also..

This is where the DX right now, same chart with same TA as last time.. See the LTL? Once that broken, price will fly to heaven..

salam hi all

busy today with doodoo his home now

had some pending orders not a bad day but its friday and was crazy

need to go back and read what i miss

hope every body had a green day miss u all

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...estick_pattern

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...estick_bullish

http://eastado.blogspot.com/2008_03_01_archive.html

in last few min g/u close 1.5270 and e/u 1.3295!!!!
I think there will be much manipulation

read with me

save this darn thing on u screen and read it every day befor u start trading

10 GOLDEN TRADING RULES FOR SUCCESS IN FUTURES & FOREX TRADING


It is a well known fact that 90 percent of investors lose money in futures and forex trading, 5-7 percent break even and only 3-5 percent make money. Given the high casualty rate, it is all the more important for investors to approach futures and forex trading in the correct manner. Below are some of the rules that traders should consider following if he is to make money consistently in the futures and forex market:

RULE 1 : USE MONEY THAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE

Trade only with "extra" money, i.e, money that is not earmarked to pay bank loans, car installments, housing loans, telephone and electricity bills, etc. One of the major reasons for investing only with extra funds is that your trading judgment will remain objective.

RULE 2 : DON’T OVERTRADE

Inexperienced traders can easily become overconfident after a number of winning trades. This can lead to overtrading – which is dangerous. One can be right 7 times out of 10 but the three times that you are wrong can wipe you out if you had overgeared yourself because of overconfidence. Success comes from prudence in money management. Never overtrade.

RULE 3 : CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT, LET YOUR PROFITS RUN

Learn to be very impatient with losing positions. Learn to resist the temptation of taking your profits too early. Success comes from holding on to profitable positions and riding with the trend for maximum gains while keeping losses small by getting out quickly when you are wrong. One way to protect you from suffering catastrophic losses is to place stop loss orders for every trade entered.

RULE 4 : IF YOU GET INTO A LOSING STREAK, TAKE A BREATHER

When things don’t work out right, when your best forecasts fail you – get away from the market and take a trading break. A period away from the market can be refreshing and will recharge you.

RULE 5 : BUILD A PYRAMID WHEN ADDING TO A PROFITABLE TRADE


As the market moves up and you are long much earlier, you must learn not to double up your positions. Instead, reduce your positions each time you add to a position. If at first you had 10 contracts, the second should not be more than 5-6 contracts and the third should be 50% of your second (i.e. 3 contracts). An upside down pyramid will be top heavy and could wipe out all your hard-earned profits should the market reverse.

RULE 6 : NEVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION

Adding to a losing position by averaging is very dangerous. Remember you are investing with "margin" and did not pick up scrips. The contract is not yours; you merely paid a percentage of the total value. Averaging a losing position is equivalent to not admitting your mistakes, that you were wrong in the first place. Successful traders cut their losses short.

RULE 7 : DON’T RISK YOUR ENTIRE CAPITAL ON ONE TRADE

Divide your trading capital into 10 equal parts and never lose more than 10 percent on one trade. If you lost the first trade, you still have nine more opportunities to be right. Putting all your capital on one trade is suicidal.

RULE 8 : NEVER MEET MARGIN CALLS

When you are wrong about the market, get out. Once you start procrastinating, very often prices will go against your position, further triggering a margin call from your broker. A margin call simply means that you are wrong in the market and your position should be closed out. Margin calls are made because people do not want to admit being wrong and take a loss; they hope the market will eventually go in their direction. To avoid this mistake, you should never meet margin calls. Just cut your losses and "get the hell out".

RULE 9 : REMOVE PROFITS FROM YOUR ACCOUNT

Probably no more than 1% of traders have a rule to take profits out of their trading account. The few wise investors I know have bought a house, a car or simply put part of their winnings into a fixed deposit account, otherwise the chances are high that they may lose them all back.

RULE 10 : HAVE A GAME PLAN

Lack of a game plan is not knowing what to do when you are wrong – and not knowing what to do even when you are right.

Here are a few guidelines:

1. Know when and at what price you are going to enter the market.
2. Know how much money you are going to risk on each and every trade.
3. Know when and at what price you are going to get out when you are wrong.
4. Know when and at what price you are going to take your profits if you are right.
5. Know how much money you are going to make if you are right.
6. Have a safety stop in case the market does the unexpected.
7. Have an approximate idea of when the market should meet your objectives or when it should begin to make a move; and if it has not done so, get out.

SUMMARY:

You will note that none out of the ten rules of trading mentioned above are on money management. Only Rule 10 describes the importance of having a trading system to determine "when to enter and exit". This just goes to show that good money management is the key to your success in making money in the stocks, futures and currency markets. A good trading system comes second. Nick Leeson, the rogue trader for Barings in Singapore, got into trouble because he did not respect some of the 10 golden trading rules.

SUMMARY

You will note that none out of the ten rules of trading mentioned above are on money management. Only Rule 10 describes the importance of having a trading system to determine "when to enter and exit". This just goes to show that good money management is the key to your success in making money in the stocks, futures and currency markets. A good trading system comes second. Nick Leeson, the rogue trader for Barings in Singapore, got into trouble because he did not respect some of the 10 golden trading rules.

Thanx kill,some good reading for a rainy bank holiday weekend in uk, still working my way through magix voodoo boodoo!!
Hawki

[quote=forexlion;3684611]

no comments, the post made 27 hours back says it all

Good post kill, important to have standard trading rules always visible!
I have 2 sets. one of standard similar to the ones posted and one of my own rules.

[quote=forexlion;3688116] the reatrcement was right but 4850 target maybe wrong

[quote=forexlion;3688116] I missed that post but i found this one
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3686054&postcount=222891

lion if i open an account through u u will vouch for me

and if u open through me i will not vouch for

[quote=egkid;3688132]
hey bro how are u

have a great weekend

i might be wrong

CABLE made DOUBLE M ... almost SAME in 2 Weeks.
And NEXT Week SHE will make Double M again... for LOWER ??

Have GREAT WEEKEND