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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #222,741
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:54am Apr 29, 2010 11:54am
Quoting lexazver
now this kind of movement is telling me that it is likely to continue heading in that direction so the short i took at 1.5334 is just a scalp and im seriously reconsidering it... have not bailed out yet but i dont feel confident at all...
closed at 21 for just 13 pips but as i said before it was just a scalp, if we see retracement from here on and in ASIAN session will be looking to go long for london session tomorrow... enough for today
  • #222,742
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:55am Apr 29, 2010 11:55am
Quoting Najee
The keyword is patient and trade well (unless you are being caught by surprise like the downgrades).
or holding BP when the well blows up
  • #222,743
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:56am Apr 29, 2010 11:56am
Quoting bbakker
Now you are changing the %. What happens if you lose 5 in a row... bye bye account. Never change the percentage!
yeah but if the account is just 300 and you are sown 50% and wanna get it back to BE, how long will it take? Or one could trade 10% of 150 and look for RR of 5 and after making your money back, change to 2.5%???

PS I know this is not sustainable, just hypothesis which I know is very dangerous on large account but on Micro, dunno...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,744
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:00pm Apr 29, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting lexazver
closed at 21 for just 13 pips but as i said before it was just a scalp, if we see retracement from here on and in ASIAN session will be looking to go long for london session tomorrow... enough for today
in reality what i see will happen is that we will range here (possibly in tight range) until frankie or london and have shakeout of weak longs and will continue up up up
  • #222,745
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:01pm Apr 29, 2010 12:01pm
Hello all
Just back home review things and depends on my view i add sell 1.5335
daily ,4h, 1h , 15min Good R on my system @ 1.5340
Let's see where we gonna close today
  • #222,746
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:05pm Apr 29, 2010 12:05pm
Currently Long @ 1.5287. Price on the Cable has shown more buying pressure like I wanted to see. Sorry I wasn’t able to post this earlier as the market had entered me while I was sleeping. I would like to see the market continue to push up some more. I will be looking for opportunities to reduce my risk on this investment. Market Sentiment on the Daily TF is currently Bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #222,747
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:06pm Apr 29, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting lexazver
in reality what i see will happen is that we will range here (possibly in tight range) until frankie or london and have shakeout of weak longs and will continue up up up
DX shot the W1 support at the fixing earlier & bounced right off lex.
Right now back above, so maybe, just maybe this upmove is temporary.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thank You
  • #222,748
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:06pm Apr 29, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting lexazver
in reality what i see will happen is that we will range here (possibly in tight range) until frankie or london and have shakeout of weak longs and will continue up up up
the 4h seems to have more room to go up. Let's see if it can test r2 at 5367...
  • #222,749
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:07pm Apr 29, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
yeah but if the account is just 300 and you are sown 50% and wanna get it back to BE, how long will it take? Or one could trade 10% of 150 and look for RR of 5 and after making your money back, change to 2.5%???
That is taking a big risk if you ask me. This is where R/R come into play, so actually you do not need 40 consecutive wins to go back to BE. If you use 2% and lose 40 consecutive trades. If using a R/R ratio of 2:1, it will only take 20 consecutive winning trades to get back to BE.

Problem is the R/R ratio will change with different trades. Some trades will be 1.5:1, others maybe 3:1. It all depends where the S/R lines are. You calculate roughly where the price entry will be, where your SL will be and where the desired exit will be. You then calculate the RR ratio and how big your SL is. You can then work out with 2% how big your lot size should be. I know most people can't be bothered to work this out and just open the position without doing any calculations. You can setup a spreadsheet that will do all this for you!

It is easier to do this with longer term trades and should be done. Short-term trades such as scalping and maybe day trading it is more difficult and you do not have the time to do this. But you should also move the SL to BE or grab that cash on the table, Kill stylie!

Different courses for different horses and your strategy should change and be based on each different course!
  • #222,750
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:09pm Apr 29, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Najee
the 4h seems to have more room to go up. Let's see if it can test r2 at 5367...
sorry, it shud be r3...my bad...
  • #222,751
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:09pm Apr 29, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Najee
It's true mate, as a newbie, i jumped at the chance of making a quick buck here and there so i scalp here and there using the shorter TF. It seems to be working as my winning/losing ratio is abt 65:35. When i started to feel confident about my trade, I started to increase my lot size and that's when I lost my concentration and started to make schoolboy mistakes. When I switched to trend trading on the longer TF (1h and 4h), it seems that the flow is more smooth sailing provided your MM is correct. Now I can make consistent gains and my ratio has...
Actually, it's hard to separate noise and the actual trend.. they all mixed up together in the ltf.. unless you've mastered in that area then only you can take advantage of both.. if not, one is like a sailor in the open sea with broken compass..
  • #222,752
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:11pm Apr 29, 2010 12:11pm
Ok, so...

Taking all this to mind, I worked out that by risking 2.5% of my account and trading 40 successful trades in a row will give me 17x my current balance...

I must seriously stop over sizing my lots...

And I know I will have losses so even if it is just 8x, it will be amazing!!!

EDIT, thats with rr of 3... with RR of 2 it goes to 6.6x
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,753
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:13pm Apr 29, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Ok, so...

Taking all this to mind, I worked out that by risking 2.5% of my account and trading 40 successful trades in a row will give me 17x my current balance...

I must seriously stop over sizing my lots...

And I know I will have losses so even if it is just 8x, it will be amazing!!!
Yeah! that will work i guess...
  • #222,754
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:14pm Apr 29, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Ok, so...

Taking all this to mind, I worked out that by risking 2.5% of my account and trading 40 successful trades in a row will give me 17x my current balance...

I must seriously stop over sizing my lots...

And I know I will have losses so even if it is just 8x, it will be amazing!!!

Another nice side effect of small lot sizes is you can sleep easy and walk away from your terminal without worries.
  • #222,755
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:15pm Apr 29, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Ok, so...

Taking all this to mind, I worked out that by risking 2.5% of my account and trading 40 successful trades in a row will give me 17x my current balance...

I must seriously stop over sizing my lots...

And I know I will have losses so even if it is just 8x, it will be amazing!!!


Yes. Only start increasing lot size when you are GREEN. If in the red, you need to reduce lot size! Most people do it the other way and that is how you blow your account! Fact!
  • #222,756
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Najee
the 4h seems to have more room to go up. Let's see if it can test r2 at 5367...
I'm afraid what he says might be true.. we are already in the area of resistance.. it doesn't need to be the exact number.. Perhaps, we might consolidate in this area, then pullback and then back up.. and it's late already..
  • #222,757
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting cloggie
Another nice side effect of small lot sizes is you can sleep easy and walk away from your terminal without worries.


got to go and buy groceries... aiaiai... French women! in South Africa I wouldnt have this problem as the Mrs would be doing it ....
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,758
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm Apr 29, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting wormboy
DX shot the W1 support at the fixing earlier & bounced right off lex.
Right now back above, so maybe, just maybe this upmove is temporary.
the 4h candle before is looking kinda bearish.. no??? especialy that price now managed to pass the low of that candle....

some good traders have sugested that this down move was just orchestrated with all this greek bs and that now they want to take it up again....and actually agree with that looking for 1.56 at some point...perhaps next week we'll see. Also dont forget the election is next thursday in UK so it should get volatile around then...


as of now we are back into resistance area where bulls will have to reaccumulate (absorb all sellers) before heading higher.

my logic for not going to 1.5350 at least today because sellers will be waiting there so bulls will try to acumulate at levels below which would annoy sellers and they start jumping in at lower prices....then enough pressure will build up and price will start to heading lower (i.e weak long shakeout in other words) and once bears think they are in control bulls will come and kick their buts by whizzing past this resistance ....or i could be completely wrong
  • #222,759
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm
Ok everybody, have to get some 40 winks and recharge the battery. See you all tomorrow in asian session. For the rest who still have some duracell left in you...happy pipping.
  • #222,760
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm
hallo hallo... did anyone here live in Paris?? is it as beautiful as in "Paris Je T'Aime"?? i want go there...


to honor this GU thread i attach this chart for you...hope didn't break..that's also 200 SMA. (maybe after this magix will come up, MA addict )

becareful market still so strong... green pips for you all
Attached Image
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