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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #222,721
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:36am Apr 29, 2010 11:36am
Quoting cloggie
Yes it was, but you have to revisit your lotsize. Pick your size so that you can sustain 40 consecutive losses without blowing your account if all 40 would hit your SL, that's a good start into proper MM
If using 2%, you would lose around 60% of your account with 40 consecutive losses. Just a quick calculation in my head... I did not use a calculator, so please correct me if I am wrong!
  • #222,722
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:37am Apr 29, 2010 11:37am
Quoting pawpaw1000
reckon its me... Btw, I changed my system a bit a week ago to give me more solid entries like the one I was looking at around 80.

You cant say it wasnt a good entry...
No, its not a good entry.. try look at 4h.. tell me why must it be a cluster resistance.. it might just be a minor R where you see in shorter TF... The cluster resistance is currently at about 5350..
  • #222,723
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:38am Apr 29, 2010 11:38am
Quoting bbakker
If using 2%, you would lose around 60% of your account with 40 consecutive losses. Just a quick calculation in my head... I did not use a calculator, so please correct me if I am wrong!
that 80% bro.. lol
  • #222,724
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:39am Apr 29, 2010 11:39am
Quoting bbakker
If using 2%, you would lose around 60% of your account with 40 consecutive losses. Just a quick calculation in my head... I did not use a calculator, so please correct me if I am wrong!
guess thats if you adjust it every time you lose...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,725
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:39am Apr 29, 2010 11:39am
Quoting pawpaw1000
reckon its me... Btw, I changed my system a bit a week ago to give me more solid entries like the one I was looking at around 80.

You cant say it wasnt a good entry...
True... you could have moved the SL to BE to protect against any loses when the price was in your favour, but how many times when doing that does it hit and then continue the journey you had chosen! These are tough decisions we have to make on a daily basis!
  • #222,726
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:40am Apr 29, 2010 11:40am
hhhhhheeeeeeelllllllloooooooooooooo
  • #222,727
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:40am Apr 29, 2010 11:40am
Quoting bbakker
If using 2%, you would lose around 60% of your account with 40 consecutive losses. Just a quick calculation in my head... I did not use a calculator, so please correct me if I am wrong!

Correct as the lotsize decrease after each loss, however it is a good way of calculating the initial lot, so yes if the first trade was a loss, the second lot size would reduce accordingly however would again be calculated as a lotsize that can withstand 40 consecutive losses so the size calculator remains the same.
  • #222,728
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:41am Apr 29, 2010 11:41am
Quoting A-speculator
that 80% bro.. lol
Wrong! You do not calculate 2% x 40. If starting with 100, 2% is 2. At 50, 2% is 1. Get your calculator out and actually do it. It is reverse compounding.... whatever that is called!
  • #222,729
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:42am Apr 29, 2010 11:42am
now this kind of movement is telling me that it is likely to continue heading in that direction so the short i took at 1.5334 is just a scalp and im seriously reconsidering it... have not bailed out yet but i dont feel confident at all...
  • #222,730
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:43am Apr 29, 2010 11:43am
tho with 50% loss already such a pain in the butt to make a come back bro.. if you consider adjusting the lot size after every losses..

Really2 hard.. may need more patience then..
  • #222,731
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:44am Apr 29, 2010 11:44am
Quoting A-speculator
tho with 50% loss already such a pain in the butt to make a come back bro.. if you consider adjusting the lot size after every losses..

Really2 hard.. may need more patience then..
Never heard of auto-calculations in MS Excel. Really, it is not that hard!
  • #222,732
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:45am Apr 29, 2010 11:45am
Quoting bbakker
Wrong! You do not calculate 2% x 40. If starting with 100, 2% is 2. At 50, 2% is 1. Get your calculator out and actually do it. It is reverse compounding.... whatever that is called!
ic.. you're right bro.. my mistake..
  • #222,733
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:46am Apr 29, 2010 11:46am
Quoting bbakker
Never heard of auto-calculations in MS Excel. Really, it is not that hard!
what i mean is if you loss 50%, you need 100% just to BE.. what if more than 50%.. might need extra patience to BE.. but it's still doable.. it might take time but it is not impossible..
  • #222,734
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:50am Apr 29, 2010 11:50am
Quoting A-speculator
what i mean is if you loss 50%, you need 100% just to BE.. what if more than 50%.. might need extra patience to BE..
how about this, You risk 10% of your account with a RR of 5 and then you are at BE... Guess that means 20% of your remaining cash. Which means you have 5 chances to get it right... Not too difficult is it?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,735
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:50am Apr 29, 2010 11:50am
Quoting A-speculator
what i mean is if you loss 50%, you need 100% just to BE.. what if more than 50%.. might need extra patience to BE..
Compounding comes into play again. Use the same 2% and 40 consecutive wins will get you back to BE! It is all about using the SAME percentage and use Excel to calculate that for you so that you do not have to. All you need to do is to log every trade on an Excel spreadsheet with your formulae to do your calculations. It ain't rocket science!
  • #222,736
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:51am Apr 29, 2010 11:51am
Time to short if you scalp
maybe 20-30 pips
  • #222,737
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:52am Apr 29, 2010 11:52am
Quoting pawpaw1000
how about this, You risk 10% of your account with a RR of 5 and then you are at BE... Guess that means 20% of your remaining cash. Which means you have 5 chances to get it right... Not too difficult is it?
Now you are changing the %. What happens if you lose 5 in a row... bye bye account. Never change the percentage!
  • #222,738
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:53am Apr 29, 2010 11:53am
Quoting stewge409
Time to short if you scalp
maybe 20-30 pips
reckon already too late, shoulda got in with the cat...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #222,739
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:53am Apr 29, 2010 11:53am
Quoting pawpaw1000
sounds like a good idea but it doesnt fit me... I've tried, I'm more into shorter tf's...

I just need to keep practising!!! I'll get there eventually, I have a very nice system just struggle to stick to the rules sometimes!
everyone is attracted to the shorter tf because of the faster gains that is achievable. Just need to remember the losses can come just as fast as the gains.
HTF trading is less colourful & boring, but a lot safer, especially for new traders. I suggest you master htf trading first & see if you can be profitable on a consistent basis ( 1 year at least ). Because if one can't trade the larger trends, you'll stand no chance trading the micro trends on the ltf.
Thank You
  • #222,740
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:53am Apr 29, 2010 11:53am
Quoting A-speculator
I tell u what.. why don't you try to trade based on 4h.. see how your results then.. try limit the use of lower TF.. Just a thought..
It's true mate, as a newbie, i jumped at the chance of making a quick buck here and there so i scalp here and there using the shorter TF. It seems to be working as my winning/losing ratio is abt 65:35. When i started to feel confident about my trade, I started to increase my lot size and that's when I lost my concentration and started to make schoolboy mistakes. When I switched to trend trading on the longer TF (1h and 4h), it seems that the flow is more smooth sailing provided your MM is correct. Now I can make consistent gains and my ratio has improved to 90:10 so far. I definitely can't pick the bottom and sell at a high but I must say that I sometime managed to get a fair share of the rally. It's good enough for me. The keyword is patient and trade well (unless you are being caught by surprise like the downgrades).
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