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EURUSD

  • #230,981
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:53am Apr 26, 2010 6:53am
Quoting Trading Cat
well mate u got it right there any outcome appart from 1. would weaken the € in the long term.Short term it can spkie pretty violent while she tries to explain her position.
we have to say something to justify our positions
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #230,982
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:57am Apr 26, 2010 6:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
we have to say something to justify our positions
isnt that always the case hahahha. Anyway today will be more like lotto then trading lets see if we took the right side.
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #230,983
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:02am Apr 26, 2010 7:02am
Hungary cuts rates to 5.25 (Prev 5.5)
  • #230,984
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:05am Apr 26, 2010 7:05am
still holding my short position with my breath
  • #230,985
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:07am Apr 26, 2010 7:07am
EURO-DOLLAR: Nudging higher with cable, the rate moving toward earlier
recovery highs around $1.3338, efollowing the initial recovery off
pullback lows at $1.3292. Offers seen placed between $1.3340/50, a break
to open a move toward $1.3365 ahead of European morning highs at
$1.3388.

Provided by: Market News International
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #230,986
  • Edited 7:42am Apr 26, 2010 7:08am | Edited 7:42am
I had originally been yelling 3100 for the last month. I am now looking at 3050.

Short term we have a rising wedge on the 5 and 15 minute charts, followed by a failure to stay over the middle ma of the 4 hour bollinger band. On the weekly, 3050 area would be bottom of bollinger band.

Long term, The 3050 area was the last amount of significant support in March before the rise to 1.5 in addition, this area has played significant s/r dating back to 2004!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scenario.JPG Size: 213 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: support.JPG Size: 183 KB
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #230,987
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:16am Apr 26, 2010 7:16am
Quoting Jonty
Interestingly enough, my take on it is the exact opposite to you, at least in the short term

1 => weak EUR
2=> strong EUR
3=> (OK, agree weak EUR)

Just saying, thats all - lets see, huh?!
All along, I believe Merkel is trying to delay the agreement to support the Greece bailout at least until the regional election is over. Unfortunately, Greece did not managed to hold out.

IMF may eventually have to fork out the 8.2bil Euro due on 19 May, although I also think it is unlikely.

For me, the more possible scenario would be delay in the bond payment. Any weakness now from Merkel would very possibly spell the downfall of her party.
  • #230,988
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:19am Apr 26, 2010 7:19am
as if trading just on a graphical way itsnt hard enought now we have to think what and if and all this rubbish with Merkel. I will try and trade a whole week without reading any news not even the numbers and just trade from the charts. Will do that on demo cos I am not sure of the outcome hahha. Now I just have to find a week where I can do this......
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #230,989
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:20am Apr 26, 2010 7:20am
I am waiting the eur backup back to 1.3400 today then will reverse back down to 1.3300 and downside to 1.3250 I will attach the new chart in next few hour to see the market moving today....



Quoting perrier
All along, I believe Merkel is trying to delay the agreement to support the Greece bailout at least until the regional election is over. Unfortunately, Greece did not managed to hold out.

IMF may eventually have to fork out the 8.2bil Euro due on 19 May, although I also think it is unlikely.

For me, the more possible scenario would be delay in the bond payment. Any weakness now from Merkel would very possibly spell the downfall of her party.
  • #230,990
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:20am Apr 26, 2010 7:20am
"Might" be that upside capped at 1.3335 that is 50% of the swing from 1.34 -1.3270. At least giving hard time to possibly punch through it.

Well, good news for bad short positions earlier

Though i would not short it here, not just good odds enough, might be missing trade.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #230,991
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:21am Apr 26, 2010 7:21am
EURO-DOLLAR: Same major NY name that had dollar-Canada demand interest
into the ECB fix also cited for selling euro-dollar back to $1.3317 from
$1.3337, also related to fix interest.

Provided by: Market News International
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #230,992
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:31am Apr 26, 2010 7:31am
Merkel's talking isn't affecting these exchange rates.
  • #230,993
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:33am Apr 26, 2010 7:33am
Above 1.3400 today
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #230,994
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:34am Apr 26, 2010 7:34am
Quoting Trading Cat
EURO-DOLLAR: Same major NY name that had dollar-Canada demand interest
into the ECB fix also cited for selling euro-dollar back to $1.3317 from
$1.3337, also related to fix interest.
Provided by: Market News International

Even I get tired and close EU position yesterday. This is BS no trading zone

Either higher for Short or lower for Long, then I'll bite..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #230,995
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:37am Apr 26, 2010 7:37am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Even I get tired and close EU position yesterday. This is BS no trading zone

Either higher for Short or lower for Long, then I'll bite..
... just to trade 'Skyzer's Contrarian Opinion'.

JgrB
  • #230,996
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:39am Apr 26, 2010 7:39am
EURO-DOLLAR: US investment name behind the lift in the pair to near
$1.3340, the move coming a little ahead of German Chancellor Merkel's
speech at the top of the hour.

Provided by: Market News International
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #230,997
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:42am Apr 26, 2010 7:42am
What time does Angela speaks in GMT??
  • #230,998
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:42am Apr 26, 2010 7:42am
Quoting JgrB2010
... just to trade 'Skyzer's Contrarian Opinion'.

JgrB

He-he, ok.. I do have other positions open. So, let's say I just

downsize the steak.. I want to reload lower, if possible..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #230,999
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:43am Apr 26, 2010 7:43am
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Mid-Feb Support Line Valued At $1.3104
RES 4: $1.3710 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 2: $1.3468 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3400 High 23 Apr
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3340
SUP 1: $1.3267 Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.3201 Lows 22, 23 Apr
SUP 3: $1.3104/28 Support line from mid-Feb, 50% projection
SUP 4: $1.3054/57 Supp line from Feb 2002, 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039
COMMENTARY: The downside remains the least path of resistance and s/t
risks seen skewed to $1.3104, which is support line from Feb 19. The
daily studies are pointing lower and still above oversold territory,
and dead-cross of 5 & 21-DMA's also bearish. M/t risk now
seen to $1.3054/57, where former is support line from Feb 2002.

Provided by: Market News International
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #231,000
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:44am Apr 26, 2010 7:44am
Quoting perrier
All along, I believe Merkel is trying to delay the agreement to support the Greece bailout at least until the regional election is over. Unfortunately, Greece did not managed to hold out.

IMF may eventually have to fork out the 8.2bil Euro due on 19 May, although I also think it is unlikely.

For me, the more possible scenario would be delay in the bond payment. Any weakness now from Merkel would very possibly spell the downfall of her party.
I think the markets expects Merkel's comments to be broadly supportive of the Euro and risk appetite in general. IMO it is no longer a question of "if" but "when". She will probably emphasise the austerity plans Greece must accept in order for the Germans to give the go ahead (and of course to placate the voting population).

The longer this thing us up in the air the worse it is going to get for everybody involved; markets hate uncertaintity, and will continue to blow out greek spreads until a satisfactory plan is in place.

All IMHO (and I remain bullish on the EUR)
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