Cable Update (GBPUSD)

a must read for the cracforex heads keep the great work coming

thanks wise man

thanks bro 3o2bal 3endak

thank u

thanks man

Thanks for letting us know where you are, and what the resistance and support levels are, and also that we can go either long or short next week

Buwahahahahahahaahah.

Congratulations Kill,from one of the 'lurkers'

Hawki

thank u

Fantastic news! Congratulations on your new sleeping, crying, pooping machine! Hope Mother and Little Baby Kill are doing well. Please send them both best wishes from your friends on the cable thread.

I would have a cigar, but I have none, so instead I will ping a can and have a cigarette to wet the baby's head!

Historically as Cloggie pointed out, cable does go up when the Tories win and down when Labour wins. Saying that, past performance is no indication of what the future might hold. We are in difficult economic times. I think the closest you will get when looking at the past is the 1979 election when Labour were last in power and had to go to the IMF with their begging bowl. The Tories won that election with the Iron Lady leading the helm. Cameron is the Iron Man

A warning from France that the financial crisis isn't over http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-ch...ver-01512.aspx

Summary:
The root cause isn't toxic financial products. It's too much debt being run up by government departments in the first place. Local authorities now say they were mis-sold these derivatives by banks. Maybe they were.

But if you're under pressure to maintain spending on services you should really be cutting, it's all too tempting to ignore the long-term risks of such big bets in favour of the short-term pay-offs. Especially if you're betting with other people's money.

It shows that the big risks don't just lie with the likes of Dubai and Greece. If a local authority goes bust, its costs will have to be chopped savagely. Public services will be slashed and staff fired. And as we've seen from almost all the other bailouts over the two years, taxpayers will end up picking up the tab.

With most governments already under heavy pressure to cut their spending, a series of crises at local level could push several countries back into recession.

It's also yet another sign that the fallout from the financial crisis is by no means over. There could be many more big shocks from over-extended local authority borrowers who've tried, and failed, to gamble their way out of debt. And the more markets rise, the more vulnerable they'll be to extra unpleasant surprises.

In addition, if lenders start to worry about more potential dodgy debt time bombs lurking in the system, they'll become more wary about lending. So the price of money – i.e. the long-term interest rate – will rise.

The EU's short-term fix for Greece
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-ch...ece-48290.aspx

Summary:
No country has ever fixed a major hole in its finances without either a devaluation (not possible for Greece as it is in the euro) or a default. "It's hard to believe" that Greece will become the first to do so.

Election plays out on a peak between dips
The political parties launched their manifestos this week against a backdrop of mildly improving data that still point to a lacklustre recovery. The trade deficit in goods and services shrank to £2.1bn in February, the lowest since late 2008, while the goods deficit fell to £6.2bn – the smallest monthly total since October 2006. Like-for-like retail sales growth jumped to 4.4% year-on-year in March, said the British Retail Consortium, although it noted that sales would have been half as good without the boost from an early Easter.

There was more evidence the house-price bounce of the past few years is running out of steam. A net 9% of surveyors at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported house-price rises last month, the lowest figure since last summer. Sales instructions are climbing and new buyer enquiries are down.
Britain needs "an export charge", said Ian Campbell on Breakingviews. But "it simply hasn't got one yet". Export volumes rose by just 1.5% in the three months to March compared to the previous three months, while imports jumped by 3.8%. And as Colin Ellis of Daiwa Europe pointed out, the overall level of exports was unchanged from December, with the weather-induced decline in January now reversed. The trade deficit has been flat for a year, and it isn't helping that our biggest export market, Europe – which accounts for over 50% of our foreign sales – has stalled.

While the external sector seems unlikely to boost growth any time soon, the domestic economy also looks weak.

The subsiding housing market will do nothing to boost consumer confidence, while there are other reasons to conclude that the "upside is still limited" in the retail sector, as Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight put it. Highly indebted consumers "face headwinds with unemployment remaining high and fiscal tightening on the way", said Hetal Mehta of Ernst & Young Item Club.

On the latter subject, we'll have to wait a few weeks "to find out exactly what form the pain will take", said David Wighton in The Times. The election has created a "conspiracy of silence" on the subject of "nasty tax rises and spending cuts" required to fill the chasm in the public finances. Instead, we're getting "fire-fights" over tax proposals worth a few billion while the deficit is almost £170bn, said Campbell. Politicians are especially loath to talk about cuts because the recovery is so fragile that the fiscal squeeze needed to appease markets increases the odds of it stalling. This election may be taking place on a "peak between dips".

Remember people, these are longer term views. It is not a question of IF, but a question of WHEN!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_britain_election

was there another poll this weekend ? this might give cable another boost.
Hoping for a Gap tomorrow

Congrats Kill on Lil Kill .. is this #1 or are there more??
I had no idea you were expecting a new bundle of... kill-joy

I don't want cigars or candy but will raise a glass of wine to you & your wife (who did most of the work...)

No one has mentioned yet what effect this volcanic ash problem might have on cable stabillity .. if flights to & from UK are delayed much longer? If the situation gets even worse, some say it could affect the whole northern hemisphere & for weeks or months to come...

The mind boggles at the economic impact of overseas flights being suspended indefinitely.

I would think an event this huge would impact money markets ..
but how? Anyone have input?

i wud assume it will be bad for the currency. no flgihts no business

imho
From a currency perspective, initially I would expect fibre, cable, and the swissy to take a hit. Those econimies are going to be hit the hardest first, which would imply selling of assets denomonated in those currencies i.e. a flight to safety (risk aversion). The talk of weeks or months will only increase uncertainty and fear. I expect the European stock markets to have a decent sell off on Monday. Also, the impact is stretching well beyond the airline industry. Impact a couple of weeks and you'll start to see quarterly earnings estimates adjusted.

Then it depends on how far this thing stetches - literally and figuratively. Going west to east, Japan would be next and then the US and Canada. Perhaps the safe bet is the Aussie - sitting safe in the southern hemisphere with a growing economy. Gold has been down, but this could give it bump which would assist the Aussie, too.

Add Goldman Sachs into the equation and Monday could be very interesting.

I was originally expecting next week to be sideways with the low dipping between 5335 and 5300. Now I think 5200 to 5150 could be a possibility.

forgot to attach

I think it is about #4 or #5, Kill told me, if I remember correctly! It has been a while since the last one though, but I am sure it will all come back to him pretty quickly!

alright, what do you have to offer mate? I don't believe anyone can say much more than What I've put in my previous posts. And I didnt just give s/r as I did mention we are at the top of the weekly t/l at 5550 on my chart. I also mentioned that the daily tl is keeping us up but if it breaks we are going to turn around and head south for the week...

Nice to sit and criticize when you sit around, never posting doing JACK shite...

Here's my previous post. If you think you can read any more into the charts then why dont you enlighten us with your crystal ball knowledge...

I'm a newbie and have only been trading for 5 weeks live, I post my analyses to get peoples opinions and help. If you are going to react like that, bugger off...

this is why we wont go higher than 5550...

1 - Weekly at top of utl
2 - Daily reaching critical level and has peirced btl
3 - 4hr showing lower Highs and lower lows plus critical level close...

I gotta say shorts with s/l above 5550 and t/p 4800 is looking GOOD!
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1271432972 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1271432972 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1271432989
On this last chart there should be a btl... Using ema for that at the moment...