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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #216,901
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:51pm Apr 13, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting lexazver
i mean anything can happen we can sit here and draw endless amount of possible future moevements. I just do it for myself particularly to map out certain levels where i will be watching PA closely. I'm not a good long term trader, more of a scalper but if scalp goes really good then i may turn into longer term guy and identifying key levels helps to create those good scalps. Alot of the time i scalp in between those levels with very tight stops. At the moment EMA14 and 21 on 15min chart hold cable from rising....
If scalping works for you, you don't have to change your style mate. I choose swing/position trading is because I can't stand sitting in front of computer all day long and I'm not good at scalping... that's why.
  • #216,902
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:52pm Apr 13, 2010 12:52pm
im long , based on the 15min and 1 hr stoch which seem to b turning up, desnt look like it can go down much tonite, but then again playing with profit


Quoting OldReigatian
anyone currently holding a long position here?
  • #216,903
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:53pm Apr 13, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting bbakker
Good evening peeps!

Had a great day out with the kids and while they were scoffing their dinner, I did some long-term analysis on cable. Comments are always welcome!

To put it simply, the writing is on the wall for Sterling, but hey, this is cable and funnier things have happened! But in the short-term we can still have some upside.

As always I try to keep it simple and avoid clutter if I can.

Attachment

I have only taken this back to the last high on 5th Aug 2009 and drawn the two fibs (I could have drawn 3 including the...
Excellent charting BB.

Just looking at the 4hr, there was strong resistance at 1.5145ish area with the bottom of three candles all in a row.

Do you think the rally up from their is the bears consolidating to give a major push next tiime of asking? when do you think we are likely to get there. I must admit I am not a chartist, i tend to trade on daily ranges, so do not really understand how you arrive at all the lines that appear on the charts I see and the timeframe it takes to get to them
  • #216,904
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:55pm Apr 13, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting A-speculator
I choose swing/position trading is because I can't (stand sitting in front of computer all day long) .
Exactly the reason i would love to become longer term trader

I mean I love staring at chart all day i just dont have time...
  • #216,905
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:57pm Apr 13, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting bbakker
My earlier long-term analysis link
I do like the way these two trendlines meet at the 50% fib!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_longterm_d1_trendlines_meet_at50.jpg Size: 117 KB


I have made them thicker so that they stand out! Time will tell!
  • #216,906
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:58pm Apr 13, 2010 12:58pm
1BB thats to darn good bro amazing
  • #216,907
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:59pm Apr 13, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting lexazver
Exactly the reason i would love to become longer term trader

I mean I love staring at chart all day i just dont have time...
If that is the reason, you can try swing a trade, but mind you that if you chose that, there might be several days you won't have any trade just because the price isn't right. And try to start trading with position size of less than 5% per entry and added to your position based on inverted piramid (lesser & lesser)..
  • #216,908
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:05pm Apr 13, 2010 1:05pm
not btw but always important..

many of hedge fund close their long positions in us dollars..
  • #216,909
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:06pm Apr 13, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting A-speculator
If that is the reason, you can try swing a trade, but mind you that if you chose that, there might be several days you won't have any trade just because the price isn't right. And try to start trading with position size of less than 5% per entry and added to your position based on inverted piramid (lesser & lesser)..

Woah, that's a good idea, inverted pyramid trading. I might just start looking at that in demo and backtesting.
  • #216,910
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:11pm Apr 13, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting OldReigatian
Excellent charting BB.

Just looking at the 4hr, there was strong resistance at 1.5145ish area with the bottom of three candles all in a row.

Do you think the rally up from their is the bears consolidating to give a major push next tiime of asking? when do you think we are likely to get there. I must admit I am not a chartist, i tend to trade on daily ranges, so do not really understand how you arrive at all the lines that appear on the charts I see and the timeframe it takes to get to them
Those candlestick tails from last week indicate very strong support, so it would have been the bulls who were on a buying spree to support this 1.514 area as they were determined to keep this uptrend going and this will certainly be an area of resistance on the way down again, I think.

Personally I don't think we will get there before the election, but stranger things have happened and we are now in an area of consolidation around the strong S/R line at 15385
  • #216,911
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:14pm Apr 13, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting kill56
1BB thats to darn good bro amazing
My pleasure Kill! I will keep them coming, although I need to make my lines a bit thicker so that they are clearer!
  • #216,912
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:17pm Apr 13, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting A-speculator
If that is the reason, you can try swing a trade, but mind you that if you chose that, there might be several days you won't have any trade just because the price isn't right. And try to start trading with position size of less than 5% per entry and added to your position based on inverted piramid (lesser & lesser)..
im affraid i dont really like this inverted pyramid idea, on the contrary i scale out at certain levels from my winning trades and try to keep at least 20% of original trade to go as far as it can.. I would only consider this idea if say i went short 100 price wnt down 100pips I close 80 then price goes up 50 only in this case i would add but probably not more than 20 lots...
  • #216,913
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:18pm Apr 13, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting bbakker
My pleasure Kill! I will keep them coming, although I need to make my lines a bit thicker so that they are clearer!
is theres away to take paint out of win 7 and put it in win xp
  • #216,914
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:20pm Apr 13, 2010 1:20pm
Well these are my charts for EU and GU. Well, I'm not good at elaborate things but I try my best here. First of all, in this simple analysis, we know that EU & GU move more of less in the same direction. The difference is only GU is more volatile hence more noise.

If you look at EU, from weekly point of view, we can see long tailed candle at about 61.8 fibo from the last rally. Which means that there a lot of buyer at that price area hence provided a strong support/valid fibo level.

Turn into daily, we can clearly see the double bottom and price has breached the neckline and formed a valid breakout pullback pattern. You can see more clearly that the area was heavily supported which translated into dojis, twizzer, spinning whatever you want to call it and price consolidate at the support. From the normal scenario, when price consolidate at the support, usually it means that the price will move in the opposite direction.

It's the same for GU. Just watch for where the fibo confluence. Usually that will mean a very strong support or resistance.
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  • #216,915
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:26pm Apr 13, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting lexazver
im affraid i dont really like this inverted pyramid idea, on the contrary i scale out at certain levels from my winning trades and try to keep at least 20% of original trade to go as far as it can.. I would only consider this idea if say i went short 100 price wnt down 100pips I close 80 then price goes up 50 only in this case i would add but probably not more than 20 lots...
Scalling out is also good. In fact i think it much better when trading for short term trading. But adding to a position need some sort of stategy. What I mean is, you cannot add position every trade.. or every pullback. Only can add when there a valid breakout from a range for example in the higher TF.
  • #216,916
  • Edited 1:53pm Apr 13, 2010 1:28pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting kill56
is theres away to take paint out of win 7 and put it in win xp
Try copying the file from C:Windows system32 mspaint.exe in Win7 to XP, although I am not sure if it requires any DLLs from Win7. Give it a try!
  • #216,917
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:29pm Apr 13, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting kill56
is theres away to take paint out of win 7 and put it in win xp
I dont think there is, but I'll try in a bit. I suspect there will be all manner of required DLL's that wont exist in XP. I've got an XP machine here too so I'll copy it and try it.

Any reason you want Win 7 Paint? Loads of free and good packages out there, GIMP is good. Used it a bit myself, it's a free photoshop basically.
Back to basics, it has to be for me!
  • #216,918
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:34pm Apr 13, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting BadTradingFi
I dont think there is, but I'll try in a bit. I suspect there will be all manner of required DLL's that wont exist in XP. I've got an XP machine here too so I'll copy it and try it.

Any reason you want Win 7 Paint? Loads of free and good packages out there, GIMP is good. Used it a bit myself, it's a free photoshop basically.
i wanna try to edit my chars in it the paint in xp dos not do a lot
  • #216,919
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:36pm Apr 13, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting kill56
i wanna try to edit my chars in it the paint in xp dos not do a lot
I don't encourage piracy but why don't you try to download from torrent? For educational purposes, of course..
  • #216,920
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:48pm Apr 13, 2010 1:48pm
Ah, we may have a breakout to the North in the making here.

BBA, excellent posts with the trendlines.
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