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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #213,641
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:14am Apr 7, 2010 2:14am
Quoting kingfisher
DP was broken twice in last 1 hour but sustained buying pushed the prices up.

FTSE 100 may open lower, which can drag G/U again below DP.

The DP was tested on M15, M30 and H1, however closed above on all 3 so I consider that the DP was not broken, therefore my bullish outlook for today still stands. Would want to see a solid close below the DP before I consider it broken.
  • #213,642
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:15am Apr 7, 2010 2:15am
Quoting cloggie
Morning all, I am looking at levels to the North here. PA remaining above the DP and the 150ma on M30 acting as a barrier for further moves up. 5125 and 5237 are strong support on H1 and looking to break 5380 today. the PA on H1 tells me the DP is holding. Especially as the DP moved downwards due to the retracement yesterday. May still get my DB albeit slightly skewed.

Am letting the H1 consolidate a bit more before my entry. 5266 and 5280 will need to break to confirm direction.

Going to make some coffee now.
I'm with you on that. I wrote yesterday that on the daily and 4 hour charts the fibs were showing that retrace could go up to 1.5422 but 1.5380 is a very good shout and that's probably where I will position my next short entry. I don't want to get drawn into a long trade though as I still believe that in the long run we will see a bearish scenario and I don't want to get caught with my pants down. Rather wait for a good short entry up in the high 1.53's although I might get tempted around 1.5330 if there appears to be little momentum.

Edit: Also, if goes to 1.5422 that would be a 200 pip movement from the current daily low and cable loves to move 200 pips on a news day!!!
  • #213,643
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:16am Apr 7, 2010 2:16am
hey guys , is that a head and Shoulders on h4 ?????
  • #213,644
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:17am Apr 7, 2010 2:17am
Quoting OldReigatian
I'm with you on that. I wrote yesterday that on the daily and 4 hour charts the fibs were showing that retrace could go up to 1.5422 but 1.5380 is a very good shout and that's probably where I will position my next short entry. I don't want to get drawn into a long trade though as I still believe that in the long run we will see a bearish scenario and I don't want to get caught with my pants down. Rather wait for a good short entry up in the high 1.53's although I might get tempted around 1.5330 if there appears to be little momentum.

My comment to you is though, we had a retrace from 513 and if you do expect 538 as I do, that is a lot of empty beach to ignore.
  • #213,645
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:22am Apr 7, 2010 2:22am
Quoting cloggie
My comment to you is though, we had a retrace from 513 and if you do expect 538 as I do, that is a lot of empty beach to ignore.

Hi Cloggie, you are right, but I am trying to remain disciplined within my strategy and I believe that overall in the build up to the election we will see the rate come down to the mid 1.40's (although daily polls will probably create a lot of volatility with swings in each direction) Obviously, needs to be kept under review but at moment won't enter because I am not certain enough of direction.

If it breaks current daily high of 5277 will probably be tempted to try for 50 to 80 pips
  • #213,646
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:24am Apr 7, 2010 2:24am
hey guys , is that a head and Shoulders on h4 ?????
  • #213,647
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:24am Apr 7, 2010 2:24am
Quoting FxSignals
hey guys , is that a head and Shoulders on h4 ?????
no, double ROCK)
  • #213,648
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:25am Apr 7, 2010 2:25am
Quoting OldReigatian
Hi Cloggie, you are right, but I am trying to remain disciplined within my strategy and I believe that overall in the build up to the election we will see the rate come down to the mid 1.40's (although daily polls will probably create a lot of volatility with swings in each direction) Obviously, needs to be kept under review but at moment won't enter because I am not certain enough of direction.
Compliments on the strategy, don't be swayed by any tom dick and harry. Go back to previous elections and you can see the volatility in the weeks leading up to them. I history is anything to go by we will probably continue to see a range of 48-53 until the elections.

I may end up joining you at that short at 538, but I can't ignore a 100 pip move up, IF she does go.
  • #213,649
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:28am Apr 7, 2010 2:28am
Righty-Ho, off to the day job now. Good luck to you all. Happy trading.
  • #213,650
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:29am Apr 7, 2010 2:29am
Quoting OldReigatian
Hi Cloggie, you are right, but I am trying to remain disciplined within my strategy and I believe that overall in the build up to the election we will see the rate come down to the mid 1.40's (although daily polls will probably create a lot of volatility with swings in each direction) Obviously, needs to be kept under review but at moment won't enter because I am not certain enough of direction.

If it breaks current daily high of 5277 will probably be tempted to try for 50 to 80 pips
I don't think it will come down till after the election, but you never know.
  • #213,651
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:29am Apr 7, 2010 2:29am
Quoting OldReigatian
Righty-Ho, off to the day job now. Good luck to you all. Happy trading.
Ditto
  • #213,652
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:30am Apr 7, 2010 2:30am
Quote
The DP was tested on M15, M30 and H1, however closed above on all 3 so I consider that the DP was not broken, therefore my bullish outlook for today still stands. Would want to see a solid close below the DP before I consider it broken.

I agree..but with FTSE 100 down i think we are on sidelines. Still services PMI will define the today trend.
  • #213,653
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:37am Apr 7, 2010 2:37am
whats the record so far, how many pages did we post in a 30 pip flat market condition ??
  • #213,654
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:49am Apr 7, 2010 2:49am
Posting this here also as it's important for this pair...

Wedge breaking down on oil (not closed yet). This area has been a big support in the past (the major move up on the weekly charts).

Something to keep your eye on...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #213,655
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:50am Apr 7, 2010 2:50am



excellent sarcasm and very true...

Quoting forexlion
whats the record so far, how many pages did we post in a 30 pip flat market condition ??
  • #213,656
  • Edited 3:03am Apr 7, 2010 2:52am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting kingfisher
I agree..but with FTSE 100 down i think we are on sidelines. Still services PMI will define the today trend.

I think that the 10yr auction today could have a greater effect, if the auction goes as bad as last week's we could see uncertainty about the dollar. Last week's 5yr did not go too well and the 10yr is the benchmark. Couple this with a increasing lead of the Tory's in the poll and the pound is set for a "mini" rally here. In no way am I advocating a long term strengthening of the pound though.

All will be revealed in the price.
  • #213,657
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:55am Apr 7, 2010 2:55am
Just wanted to say thanks to cloggie, bbaker and everyone else who's been posting useful stuff recently.

I've been making ill timed, emotional and badly thought out trades of late and nipped it in the bud last night for a big loss.

Re-examining the stuff you guys are doing and re-evaluating how I've been doing things and am going to stop being greedy and impatient right now!

I also think I need to change my account, my pivot is listed at 15236 on the chart I have which seems a bit off!
Back to basics, it has to be for me!
  • #213,658
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:09am Apr 7, 2010 3:09am
finally its moving up omg + 20 pips had to wait 3 hrs to see this lol
  • #213,659
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:15am Apr 7, 2010 3:15am
Quote
Just wanted to say thanks to cloggie, bbaker and everyone else who's been posting useful stuff recently.

I've been making ill timed, emotional and badly thought out trades of late and nipped it in the bud last night for a big loss.

Re-examining the stuff you guys are doing and re-evaluating how I've been doing things and am going to stop being greedy and impatient right now!

I also think I need to change my account, my pivot is listed at 15236 on the chart I have which seems a bit off!

1.5233 is DP. I use pivot values from action forex which uses 5 PM NY closing and opening time.
  • #213,660
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:15am Apr 7, 2010 3:15am
During previous American session cable made a dynamic move to the upside, reversing practically all the previous bearish gains. The downtrend in short-term has formed 3 waves, that is enough for confirmation of the correction. But it didn't reach even the initial Fibonacci line (as shown at 30min chart).

If the price continues to rise, breaking the previous max level (1.532), it'll indicate that the latter correction was actual not for the whole wave, but only for a part of it. By now the continuation of downside move is more likely, so sell orders with SL right above 1.532 can be opened.

Two charts are attached in the signature link.
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