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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #213,401
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:00am Apr 6, 2010 9:00am
Quoting Baby-Trader
Hi Mal,
Did you read that ???
I post it yesterday

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post3610865
I did read that

I did also mention that we could be in this range of 400 pip for weeks till May election is done , by then feds may have raised rates based on bond prices right now and we could even drop thru 1.4800 support.

That is my critical zone as it is where the ultra high volume down bar on the weekly was , which gave us buyers. This is why I mentioned yesterday there maybe valid reasons on weekly for a climb to 1.6000 , but not seeing it just play out just yet.

So to summarize channel 1.5300 to 1.4800 . Support 1.4800 has to hold , that gives we see 1.4160 to 1.3600

last month ended on a doji , so far we have not seen a move off the close of that doji and as of today are under 1.5190 close of last montsh doji. Not that bullish right now
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #213,402
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:00am Apr 6, 2010 9:00am
Quoting bbakker
Wave 3 crossed the oscillator 4 times! Does that not invalidate this wave?

And while we are at it, what does the crossing of price have to do with a momentum indicator? Might as well look outside and wait for the mouse to enter the foxhole. And while we are at it what is with the volume indicator? So you know how many trades FXDD manages? Pretty relevant I guess if you own stock in them.

Welcome to the cable thread jefftrader, expect your analysis to be ripped apart piece by piece. Don't worry, once the market starts moving again we are too busy trading to pick up on these things....
  • #213,403
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:07am Apr 6, 2010 9:07am
The present downside rally on the Gbp/Usd pair is as expected but the nature of the rally down is of utmost importance i am treeating this rally on this pair as a correction of the move from 1.4797 to 1.5319. and hence the corrective leve1 wave 2 is been put at the price of 1.4922/1.4862 depending on how weak the Gbp turns out to be.
I am currently holding my short entered yesterday and 2days ago and closely watching the 1.5121 level today to see if it will unfold in an a,b,c correction were the a wave is at 1.5121.
I will keep this updated.
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  • #213,404
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:09am Apr 6, 2010 9:09am
Quoting pawpaw1000
just added another short at 75 with tp at 35...

still have my other 2 shorts running, they getting pretty tired with all this up and down!!!

Yippeee, you are 6 pips in profit...
  • #213,405
  • Edited 9:11am Apr 6, 2010 9:10am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting cloggie
And while we are at it, what does the crossing of price have to do with a momentum indicator? Might as well look outside and wait for the mouse to enter the foxhole. And while we are at it what is with the volume indicator? So you know how many trades FXDD manages? Pretty relevant I guess if you own stock in them.

Welcome to the cable thread jefftrader, expect your analysis to be ripped apart piece by piece. Don't worry, once the market starts moving again we are too busy trading to pick up on these things....
If we all did a 'Churchill the dog'....'Oh yes', nobody would learn anything. I'm surprised nobody ripped apart my two 'first' attempts I must have got the timing of my posts right, during a busy period
  • #213,406
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:12am Apr 6, 2010 9:12am
Quoting bbakker
If we all did a 'Churchill the dog'....'Oh yes', nobody would learn anything. I'm surprised nobody ripped apart my two 'first' attempts I must have got the timing of my posts right, during a busy period

http://www.youtube.com/thechurchilldog
That's what I enjoy about this thread, we can all constructively critisise each other and bring new and good things to the table. There is always something we miss and always another way of looking at the same thing.

In the last month or so I have watched you, pawpaw, antic, solrac and others grow as traders, that's good, keeps the market going.

Of course kill is a lost cause.

By the way 5130 may turn out to be the day's low
  • #213,407
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:17am Apr 6, 2010 9:17am
Quoting pawpaw1000
just added another short at 75 with tp at 35...

still have my other 2 shorts running, they getting pretty tired with all this up and down!!!
Watch daily range .. London high 1.5246 , current atr 14 is 150 on daily x 0.8 factor = 1.5126 .. hit to the pip

The sell you entered may give you grief for the next 12 hours till next London session as todays range is just about completed and all we will get till after fomc is waffle 1.5147 to 1.5180
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #213,408
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:23am Apr 6, 2010 9:23am
im all confused now. and tradeguider isnt helping lol. 4h looks bearish, under pivot, s1, s2, strong top at 5300, price has curled over and looks like its heading back towards 4800.

but previous 4h closed near middle of the bar, current 4h is sitting in the middle of the bar near previous 4h close. 4h volume isnt telling me much at the moment, if anything it looks a tad low compared to normal 'peak time' 4h bars, so perhaps this is a big low vol test? but then 30min also looks bearish and 10min isnt showing any signs of strong buying to me.

perhaps i cant see anything clear on any pair because its all pre-fomc consolidation as malc just said. first day using tradeguider so not sure.

now im learning this so i may be completely wrong, but it looks more likely tohead towards 4800 to me than it does to head back to 5300 or higher. im just waiting for some sort of entry signal, but i guess that will not come until after fomc at the earliest. I think its heading down, and fomc may be the catalyst for dollar strength if there is any hint of any possibility of soonish rate hikes, perhaps we see upthrust going into fomc. im just eager to trade something and play with my new toy lol
  • #213,409
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:23am Apr 6, 2010 9:23am
Long on gu for a scalp !
  • #213,410
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:24am Apr 6, 2010 9:24am
Quoting cloggie
I am still standing aside, M5 tells me that we are still in the retrace, with a couple of fake break outs to the down side. I can see at least one more test of 518 shortly which may then become support. The next test of 518 will correspond with a uTL on the M15 which may then become its support. The uTL on M5 has been broken and is acting as support. Also 150ma is like glue on H1

Pretty good for scalpers, no good for me with targets of 50-100 pips a run.

Here is my retest of 1.518, took an hour to get there. Still flat for now.
  • #213,411
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:28am Apr 6, 2010 9:28am
Quoting malcolmb14
I did read that

I did also mention that we could be in this range of 400 pip for weeks till May election is done , by then feds may have raised rates based on bond prices right now and we could even drop thru 1.4800 support.

That is my critical zone as it is where the ultra high volume down bar on the weekly was , which gave us buyers. This is why I mentioned yesterday there maybe valid reasons on weekly for a climb to 1.6000 , but not seeing it just play out just yet.

So to summarize channel 1.5300 to 1.4800 . Support 1.4800 has to hold...

this is a bullish pattern MAL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #213,412
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:29am Apr 6, 2010 9:29am
The cable was moving during the beginning of the week together with EU to the downside. It broke the previous’ wave min level today in the morning, during the European session. That means, that the uptrend we could use at previous week has finished at least for a correction portion.

It’s hard to tell for sure, if the mid-term direction of the cable is bullish or bearish. From one point of view, the latter uptrend made a 5 wave formation, that is a strong sign of the impulse (according to the Elliott wave theory); in that case after the correction move (that should not break 1.479 level) the upside move resumes.

From the other side, GU didn’t manage to break an important 1.538 level, that I was describing in my previous posts about GBPUSD. To my mind, the current market situation, the correlation with other majors (EURUSD e.g.), Elliott theory makes the development of the uptrend scenario more likely. This idea is supported with the actual Sto indicator position (below 20).
  • #213,413
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:52am Apr 6, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Lordpip
Long on gu for a scalp !
i'm holding my long
  • #213,414
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:59am Apr 6, 2010 9:59am
Quoting cloggie
Welcome to the cable thread jefftrader, expect your analysis to be ripped apart piece by piece. Don't worry, once the market starts moving again we are too busy trading to pick up on these things....
NP
  • #213,415
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:59am Apr 6, 2010 9:59am
false alarm back with full power
  • #213,416
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:06am Apr 6, 2010 10:06am
Quoting cloggie
Here is my retest of 1.518, took an hour to get there. Still flat for now.
Now a test of 15200! Surely she will hold!? Where is that bear cavalry when you need them
  • #213,417
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:08am Apr 6, 2010 10:08am
hold u horses they are busy its london closing a lot of coffee
Attached Image
  • #213,418
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:24am Apr 6, 2010 10:24am
Quoting kill56
hold u horses they are busy its london closing a lot of coffee


I took a little short, scalp this time cloggie! @15195, TP @15165, SL @15210 in an uptrend since about 11am

I am a sucker for it!
  • #213,419
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:25am Apr 6, 2010 10:25am
Retrace back to 200ema on 30/5m charts, we could see bottom side support tested again. Current bottom support sitting at 1.5152, 1.5131.
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  • #213,420
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:28am Apr 6, 2010 10:28am
Quoting cloggie
Good jolly banter on the trading floor, I love it.

Edit: pawpaw may just get his way here, lucky sod.
hey cloggs... sold 50% of position just before leaving and just got stopped for +10 on the rest...

looks like we not finished up yet???

what just happened to make price jump like that. Sorry, just got back!!!
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