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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #261
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:20pm Mar 28, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting zoli
Hmm true.

3450 seems to be OK to add. Would you agree Dan?
Hi Zol,

Sorry for the slow reply... been a hectic weekend! Yeah I would agree... if I didn't already have a position on near there I would be thinking of selling from about 1.3500.

Regards,

Dan

Edit: PS... That's looking from the "daily" perspective... if you are H4 with a 100 pip stop you might want to refine that very slightly. 1.3600 might be a safer play... but that's just my opinion of course!
  • #262
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:29pm Mar 28, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting ogeid
Hi Dan,

my first post here so first of all congratulation on your trading journal.

I also follow Mr. Jachson’s method (similar to yours) and I was posting in his thread that at the moment looks quite dead (and negative!). I like the fact that you are watching more pairs.

I would like your opinion on the following “strategy”, I use E/U.
The E/U daily trendline is around 1.36 at the moment, we can argue on that but I use this number in my example.

As for your method, you would put a sell limit at 1.36 waiting for the retrace. Because nobody...
Hi,

I think that if I were going to scale into a position I would probably start from 1.3500... but that's just me! The 50% retracement is usually my first area of interest and I measure that at about 1.3540; being a round number guy that would translate to looking at 1.3550/1.3600 for an entry.

I think it is entirely possible to scale into a trade and turn a profit from it but you still have to be cautious!

I do also understand the worry of missing a trade... but remember the old adage that goes something along the lines of "I would rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than in a trade wishing I was out"!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #263
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:02am Mar 29, 2010 5:02am
[quote=DanUK;3590942]Hi,
The 50% retracement is usually my first area of interest and I measure that at about 1.3540; being a round number guy that would translate to looking at 1.3550/1.3600 for an entry.


Hi Dan,

first of all thanks for your reply.
I agree 1.3550 would be the ideal entry level on E/U.

I would like to ask your opinion on AUD/USD, I do not know if you follow this pair.

Based on the attached chart and applying your rules, would you consider 0.92 a good level to short it, assuming that you agree on the fact that is trending down (I personally still have some concerns).

Cheers
Ogeid
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  • #264
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:35am Mar 29, 2010 5:35am
i wld be looking to go long at close above 9200 actually. my view.

h4 chart below.

[quote=ogeid;3592527]
Quoting DanUK
Hi,
The 50% retracement is usually my first area of interest and I measure that at about 1.3540; being a round number guy that would translate to looking at 1.3550/1.3600 for an entry.


Hi Dan,

first of all thanks...
Attached Image
  • #265
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:56am Mar 29, 2010 5:56am
[quote=coolshades;3592607]i wld be looking to go long at close above 9200 actually. my view.

h4 chart below.

I coolshades,

agreed, above 0.92 would be interesting (Higher High), this is why I am doubting on the downtrend move of A/U.

Cheers
  • #266
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:02am Mar 29, 2010 6:02am
Just a stupid question my apologies for that.

Do you guys know why when I quote other people messages I do not get the rectangular box around it.
It was working before. May be the browser. I am using Safari.

Thanks
  • #267
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:04am Mar 29, 2010 6:04am
since 16th nov there have been lower highs and lower lows.. so what exactly are you doubting?

for me its a downtrend until price closes above 92. then its an uptrend.

dont overanalyse..

again, just my few cents.



[quote=ogeid;3592653]
Quoting coolshades
i wld be looking to go long at close above 9200 actually. my view.

h4 chart below.



I coolshades,

agreed, above 0.92 would be interesting (Higher High), this is why I am doubting on the downtrend move of A/U.

Cheers
  • #268
  • Edited Mar 30, 2010 2:20am Mar 29, 2010 2:35pm | Edited Mar 30, 2010 2:20am
[quote=ogeid;3592527]
Quoting DanUK
Hi,
The 50% retracement is usually my first area of interest and I measure that at about 1.3540; being a round number guy that would translate to looking at 1.3550/1.3600 for an entry.


Hi Dan,

first of all thanks for your reply.
I agree 1.3550 would be the ideal entry level on E/U.

I would like to ask your opinion on AUD/USD, I do not know if you follow this pair.

Based on the attached chart and applying your rules, would you consider 0.92 a good level to short it, assuming that you agree on the fact that is trending...
Hi,

I do follow AUD/USD and have recently been taking part in the uptrend. However, I do not see a trend there at the moment.

The up-trendline was broken back in November/December and since then price has been stuck in a range between a support zone in the 0.8600/0.8800 area and resistance in the 0.9250/0.9350 area. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows are in place which indicates a downtrend developing however they are not significantly lower which causes me doubt. And they say when there is doubt, there is no doubt – stay out!

So in a situation like this I would wait to see what price action occurs at one of these levels... for example if we were to get a shooting star up in the 0.9250/0.9350 area I would be interested in selling below or if we manage to get a breakout of one of these levels I would also look to trade in the direction of the breakout.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan

PS... I'm not sure why you don't get the quote box!!

PPS... I should also have mentioned that I favour a bullish outlook at the moment!
  • #269
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:04am Mar 30, 2010 3:04am
Dan hows the new strategy working for you?
What trades are you in and can you post some more charts if possible?
Thanks again.
  • #270
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:54pm Mar 30, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting bez3000
Dan hows the new strategy working for you?
What trades are you in and can you post some more charts if possible?
Thanks again.
Hi,

It's going well, thanks! It's much slower than H4 trading hence there are not going to be that many trade updates here!

I will try and post new trades when I take them and charts too as it happens!

Regards,

Dan
  • #271
  • Mar 31, 2010 7:58pm Mar 31, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

It's going well, thanks! It's much slower than H4 trading hence there are not going to be that many trade updates here!

I will try and post new trades when I take them and charts too as it happens!

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,
Can you explain a little bit more on your support resistant area?
I'm a bit confuse to determine a major support and resistant, an area where price is likely to be rejected not just by 50 pips but larger. And dan did you also look at fibo 61.8? thats is 1.3600 and it is your price of interest... i ask this because i can't see a reason why you choose 1.3600 as there is no significant resistant at this level..
  • #272
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:27am Apr 4, 2010 5:27am
Quoting carrot_yuli
Hi Dan,
Can you explain a little bit more on your support resistant area?
I'm a bit confuse to determine a major support and resistant, an area where price is likely to be rejected not just by 50 pips but larger. And dan did you also look at fibo 61.8? thats is 1.3600 and it is your price of interest... i ask this because i can't see a reason why you choose 1.3600 as there is no significant resistant at this level..
Hi,

No I didn't look at the 61.8 level - I think you misunderstood my post slightly, which reading it back, I can understand why!

What I was trying to suggest was that the area of interest for me was the 1.3550 level... however if you wanted to be cautious 1.3600 was more of a round number to trade from. If you did take 1.3600 you would have missed the entry by about 8 pips, but that's ok. It's better to be a little cautious rather than jumping the gun... but of course we can't be too cautious or we'll never actually get in a trade! Getting the balance right takes time!

Support & Resistance - I can understand the struggle with this; it took me quite a while to be able to determine what I call key or major levels of s/r.

Identifying these levels correctly is a very important part of my trading as they are not only places at which I will trade from but they are also defining levels that I use to evaluate the trend.

Take a weekly chart and zoom right out... then try and draw levels that almost act as barriers. The best areas are very obvious and are normally both support and resistance (although not always). Don't flood your chart with lines either - really try and draw just the major levels.

Then drop down to a daily chart (but keep your zoom right out) and sharpen the levels a bit.

If you (or anyone else) is interested in developing this skill it would be a good idea to engage in a little exercise... take a look at the EUR/USD and draw some levels. Then post it here and I'll take a look at it and see how our charts compare.

A couple of tips... I always round my levels to xx00 or xx50 and they are not normally to the pip lines but are often a zone of about 100 pips.

Regards,

Dan
  • #273
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:10am Apr 5, 2010 3:10am
That is an interesting idea.. so as a start I post my support resistant level which i see that the levels are about every 150-250pips. Am I correctly draw them Dan?
On more question... Why you didn't consider to trade @1.3450 level when it was broken down? I think that was the nearest major resistant level that i can see.
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  • #274
  • Apr 5, 2010 8:50am Apr 5, 2010 8:50am
Quoting carrot_yuli
That is an interesting idea.. so as a start I post my support resistant level which i see that the levels are about every 150-250pips. Am I correctly draw them Dan?
On more question... Why you didn't consider to trade @1.3450 level when it was broken down? I think that was the nearest major resistant level that i can see.
Hi,

That's a good start. Your levels seem pretty good and they are certainly tradable. They don't match mine exactly but then who's to say which are better!?

The only thing though is these are daily levels... if you have a look at these levels on a weekly chart they loose their importance. We need to first locate the key levels...

Have a look at the attached chart - I opened a new E/U chart and had a quick glance at the weekly chart. I've highlighted some of the levels that jump out at me. There are a couple more below these too - see if you can work out which ones I would consider to be key levels?

Once I have these initial levels plotted I will drop down to the daily to sharpen them up... but we'll come to that later.

It looks like you are on the right track though so keep at it!!

Regards,

Dan
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  • #275
  • Apr 5, 2010 9:12am Apr 5, 2010 9:12am
Quoting Whiteflame
Hi DanUK can you tell me how you define a trend with your stratagy? I understand higher highes and higher lows etc.... but how many swings would you say makes a trend?
What i am getting at is how do you know its a trend and not just consolidation with a couple of swing highes that will reverse straight away?
Hi Whiteflame,

I'm sorry I missed your question before... however now would be a good time to answer this question.

I don't go so much on how many swings but more on where the swings fall... you see the levels I posted on my EU chart... I use these to determine whether or not the trend is changing or consolidating. If price can't break these (in the opposite direction of the trend) I consider price to be consolidating until price either breaks the level or uses it to continue on it's way (i.e. back into the trend).

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan

A good example of this has just happened on EU... please see attached chart.
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  • #276
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:11am Apr 6, 2010 6:11am
Hi Dan

Thanks alot for that. I was following the Jacko thread (until it lost its way) but im glad i was introduced to this. I have changed my trading style to almost match your Daily trading style. Having a full time job and 3 kids its much less stressfull and not so time consumuing. Well done on your results so far, i hope to get close to the success your having.
  • #277
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:56am Apr 6, 2010 6:56am
Dan I think this levels are all the major ones.. is that too much?
if i am trading from h4 should i draw support resistant from Daily?
thanks Dan.. your opinion is much appreciated
  • #278
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:59am Apr 6, 2010 6:59am
a chart
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  • #279
  • Apr 6, 2010 12:10pm Apr 6, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Whiteflame
Hi Dan

Thanks alot for that. I was following the Jacko thread (until it lost its way) but im glad i was introduced to this. I have changed my trading style to almost match your Daily trading style. Having a full time job and 3 kids its much less stressfull and not so time consumuing. Well done on your results so far, i hope to get close to the success your having.
Hi Whiteflame,

No problem!

With the Doctor as your avatar you are welcome here anytime! Lol!

Regards,

Dan
  • #280
  • Apr 6, 2010 12:21pm Apr 6, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting carrot_yuli
Dan I think this levels are all the major ones.. is that too much?
if i am trading from h4 should i draw support resistant from Daily?
thanks Dan.. your opinion is much appreciated
Good work that's what I'm looking for! I would also add a level in the 1.3350 area but other than that it's looking good.

The next step is to drop down to daily to see where the levels really fall... for example the 1.3800 is more like a range in the 1.3750 - 1.3850 area (as per attached chart). Typically most of these key levels form as a range as opposed to an exact to the pip level. I find that levels on E/U tend to be about 50 - 100 pips.

If you are trading from H4 I would keep these areas on your chart to help define the trend and areas where a possible change of trend will be confirmed or stopped. I would then plot S/R from the daily chart to help you trade from... but again keep them fairly simple and go for the most obvious levels that really stand out; but remember the daily levels are not used to determine the trend, they are just to help pick better areas to trade from.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
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