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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #212,741
  • Edited 6:01pm Apr 2, 2010 5:27pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
this is funny

also nfp will have no effect till next week

In fact nfp is awesome for usd. Why ...well with such good jobs growth I bet the fed fund rate futures jump as the path is being paving for the us to raise rate.

Both eu and gu could be in some form of bear flag s on the daily.

I am just taking it day by day.

Attachment
yes i was thinking that too, why good news (to others that don't know : don't see it's red or green, see it grow or not) to US but price stop in that level? wormy chart tell it also. 1.5177 could be (maybe) the first wave of big correction wave from 1.68xx.
consider doji (almost) that being formed last month, and 1.4777 in daily chart (it could be wave 1 in upward ) so to break 1.4777 is not easy cos it will decided if US economy will good or not to reach 1.3xxx


i should give chart to make it easy to explain...,maybe latter.
we will see next week what probably will happen.

and you are right, trade it day by day is the way. we talk this cos this is part of our job, "try to predicting the future" before it happen to make 'more gain'.
Green pips for you Malcolmb.


ps: you one of the reasons why i decided to join and active in this forum. cos i think you are good trader. and it's a pleasure for me that you consider (atleast read if not ) my newbie analysis. i'm not kidding and i'm happy now
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #212,742
  • Apr 2, 2010 7:00pm Apr 2, 2010 7:00pm
Ok!
I closed out the week pretty early yesterday and totally forgot that it was easter friday the next day; so it would have been trading in unpredictable markets. Holidays are a bad time for trading. So what is happening with the GU? We see a trend line break, so this potentially tells us that there is a NEUTRAL trend or a Reversal coming soon. I haven’t yet drew another trend line as I’ll wait for the trend to become more stable and have a few more bounces of an imaginary trend-line in my head. Hoping for a good week ahead. Check out the chart below to get more of an idea on what I am on about.

http://rksinvesting.com/blog/wp-cont...63-300x134.jpg

Analysis:
S1 – 1.5195 (High)
R1 – 1.5298 (Medium)
Candlestick Analysis(CA from now on) – Suggests a big downtrend due to the momentum of the black body of the candle. But, there will be a slight retracement before S1. However, when we do reach S1 again, we should expect resistance again, but a possible break out. If it does reach S1 and with momentum looks like it will break I will go in the trade with very little risk.
Entry – Break of S1

happy trading!
  • #212,743
  • Apr 2, 2010 7:39pm Apr 2, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting javapips
Kill is not my Friend, but i will remember him always, do you know why?
cos he is the one and only people that talk to me
"are talking a sh*t ????"

remember that night kill?? when i'm still new here and GU going to drop from 1.6450??? how dare you talk to me like that...
Javapips,

On this Easter Weekend... in remembrance of the greatest event
in history that is changing the course of humankind... we should
continually remind ourselves: 'we are all redeemable'.

Since miracles never cease, the day may come with softened hearts
the four of us might walk hand in hand to the promised land.

Until that unlikely day and to all else, I echo the Oscar winning words
of court composer and patron saint Antonio Salieri: "mediocrities of the
world (and more particularly of this asylum) I absolve you. I absolve you.
I absolve you."

Dr. D.
  • #212,744
  • Apr 2, 2010 8:58pm Apr 2, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Javapips,

On this Easter Weekend... in remembrance of the greatest event
in history that is changing the course of humankind... we should
continually remind ourselves: 'we are all redeemable'.

Since miracles never cease, the day may come with softened hearts
the four of us might walk hand in hand [i][color=blue]to...


if i'm allowed to continue my word Dr D,

Kill (Dr D, wormy, GM, malcolmb, Dogol, Lion, Ctic, Magix, BB, Jemmy, bang manize, Tsar, and others member that i couldn't mention his/er name cos it's too many people here) is not my friend, cos i know you are much much older (from age) than me, so it's not 'polite' for me to call you as a friend, you are all my teacher in Life here.

so please teach this young people. i believe in that ages everyone found 'some thing', that could lead us young peoples to be better.


best regards,

java.

I will be the number one Manager.
  • #212,745
  • Apr 2, 2010 11:42pm Apr 2, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
heloo ... look at Thursday volume ....

Yup eu is doomed next week.
My aunty told me that on the overall trend for GU is up. for this whole month.
She ask me to make collection during retracement time.
For who has holding power, dont worry if you in long position.
  • #212,746
  • Edited 2:32am Apr 3, 2010 2:22am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting javapips
Lion mean @ 1.5177

NFP is big news, if a big news can't break that little support, so that mean for next week we will going up till 1.56xx - near 1.5700...

bad trader will enter market now, good trader will wait till next week begin, which one is your choice, that is you...,i enter now,,,
I dont' meant to be a wet blanket but, I would be wary of that long position. Please consider most of the major markets are closed for the Easter weekend. NFP is a major event and its a record number if you take the last 3 years data into account. I would only make judgement of the market direction on Monday when the rest of the markets are open. A huge spike downwards is possible and if you don't have your stops in play, it may spell disaster
  • #212,747
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:17am Apr 3, 2010 4:17am
good piece of advice. large move down may occur suddenly on tuesday. beware of longs at this time. NFP is yet to play out.

Quoting Bitstream
I dont' meant to be a wet blanket but, I would be wary of that long position. Please consider most of the major markets are closed for the Easter weekend. NFP is a major event and its a record number if you take the last 3 years data into account. I would only make judgement of the market direction on Monday when the rest of the markets are open. A huge spike downwards is possible and if you don't have your stops in play, it may spell disaster
Its all in the mind.
  • #212,748
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:13am Apr 3, 2010 5:13am
On Friday cable made downside move after the period of low volatility in a tight range.

According to my wave count, bullish didn’t finish yet. Buy orders with consequent stops in 1.518-1.516 can be opened in order to catch the possible formation of another max levels.

The chart is attached in the signature link.
  • #212,749
  • Edited 5:55am Apr 3, 2010 5:25am | Edited 5:55am
ok what i suggest if any1 lost money this week on cable and post a chart..perhaps someone can post why it went wrong this way..when market is shut..something good can come out of it!!!..

just a suggestion if any1 is interested
Attached Images
  • #212,750
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:36am Apr 3, 2010 5:36am
GU is clear bear flag for me and fundamentals confirm that too, so beware longs, you may be in trap, keep tight stops, GU is f...ing thing, he can go in any direction lots of pips when whole market will be in place.
  • #212,751
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:39am Apr 3, 2010 6:39am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok what i suggest if any1 lost money this week on cable and post a chart..perhaps someone can post why it went wrong this way..when market is shut..something good can come out of it!!!..

just a suggestion if any1 is interested
ahh i forgot this is a forum and 99.9% win
Attached Image
  • #212,752
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:55am Apr 3, 2010 6:55am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok what i suggest if any1 lost money this week on cable and post a chart..perhaps someone can post why it went wrong this way..when market is shut..something good can come out of it!!!..

just a suggestion if any1 is interested
Here's what I noticed on the 1st... Distribution...

As previous pointed out LTL broke with High Volume

On the daily chart wave 2 lasted 24 days and was a a,b,c zig zag-- so wav4 should- is a flat triangle) and we have been in wav4 for........24 days.


My last movement upwards was wave B and has 3 waves - wave three was an extended wave to max permissable for a Wave B
Wave B ended with some distribution and a final mark up...

One thing I noticed -- and it is really only relative to my broker--( I rarely use m1 but was curious) the PA stopped on Friday after NFP at the 1.518ish-- without hitting any major stops (if you look at the M1 chart the bars all CLOSE LOW and buyers pile in afterwards --- any major stops or buy limit orders being hit would cause some good "wicks"- and there aren't any... which suggests to me price was "held up not by MM intervening- but by not intervening" above the stops-- and more buyers piled in trapped this week ... Wicks appear in both directions after move- High V sellers and Low V buyers.

Just my 2 pips...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4_1.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_4h_apr3.1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #212,753
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:29am Apr 3, 2010 8:29am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ahh i forgot this is a forum and 99.9% win
lol
an excellent idea bro. but you won't get it. no, not because most are winners, most just post very cleverly after a move. Some nifty charting too - after the fact. please ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1172327953822wh9ud7.jpg Size: 58 KB
Thank You
  • #212,754
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:33am Apr 3, 2010 8:33am
Quoting wormboy
lol
an excellent idea bro. but you won't get it. no, not because most are winners, most just post very cleverly after a move. Some nifty charting too - after the fact. please ....
Hey Azim + Nav,

That's right, 99.9% win and the other 0.1% manage to get out at b/e....
  • #212,755
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:34am Apr 3, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Jefftrader
Here's what I noticed on the 1st... Distribution...

As previous pointed out LTL broke with High Volume

On the daily chart wave 2 lasted 24 days and was a a,b,c zig zag-- so wav4 should- is a...

Jeff ... thanks for the post. Particularly agree with the m1 bars closing cleanly while being held up. I was looking at the same thing at that time. Now, I am long cable, and that had me wondering, so it's good to know someone else noticed it too.

Thank you again. You have my vote of confidence.
Thank You
  • #212,756
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:37am Apr 3, 2010 8:37am
Quoting gammase1
Hey Azim + Nav,

That's right, 99.9% win and the other 0.1% manage to get out at b/e....
Hey paul!

lol ... happy holidays!
Thank You
  • #212,757
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:46am Apr 3, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Jefftrader
Here's what I noticed on the 1st... Distribution...

As previous pointed out LTL broke with High Volume
.
By the way, d1 a/d is showing distribution as well (dollar index). Does your vol bars shows the same?

Thanks again.
Thank You
  • #212,758
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:55am Apr 3, 2010 8:55am
I'm at the point to point races (horses) today and with the cloud formations and me backing the horses that come 3rd I am short on GU

Supping lots of beers and having a great time!

I have done some research on pivots and will post my findings on Sunday evening.

Enjoy the rest of your Easter weekend!
  • #212,759
  • Edited 9:32am Apr 3, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:32am
The move last Friday pulled it back to the 23.6 fib of the weekly upmove. This also happened to be in the cluster of MA's that are acting as support levels as well. These supports are the 200SMA and the tunnel, with the 24SMA starting to make the cross. Whether it crosses the tunnel and 200SMA remains to be seen. On a side note the 4H candle closed uner the 200EMA so that could act as the resistance. I am curious to see what may happen and will know more when I see the open price. I feel that we may continue on to the 138.2 or 161.8 fibs which are at 1.5450ish and 1.5560ish respectively before a drop. Hoever we may retrace back to the 38.2 or 50 fibs before the rise which would be the 34SMA. As always though, I trade day by day and will know more once I see next weeks open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #212,760
  • Apr 3, 2010 9:22am Apr 3, 2010 9:22am
Quoting bbakker
I'm at the point to point races (horses) today and with the cloud formations and me backing the horses that come 3rd I am short on GU

Supping lots of beers and having a great time!

I have done some research on pivots and will post my findings on Sunday evening.

Enjoy the rest of your Easter weekend!
Turd again! GU definitely going down
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