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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #209,841
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:49am Mar 25, 2010 1:49am
Quoting cloggie
Morning pawpaw, am flat looking to enter long on the retrace if it materialises, having a close look at M15 to support that.
how about a convincing break of 83? its been there 3 times to no avail??
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,842
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:50am Mar 25, 2010 1:50am
Quoting kill56
a bear flag ??????

we need to break 14845 it will take us to 14790 then we talk from there
And we still have that HnS, lots of conflicting signals today. M15 may just be consolidating here for a continuation.
  • #209,843
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:54am Mar 25, 2010 1:54am
Quoting pawpaw1000
how about a convincing break of 83? its been there 3 times to no avail??

Yeah a bearish reversal on M15 followed by the breakdown of 4853 is key to me in the continuation. I want to see a consolidation range forming on M15 with a new support and resistance that needs to be broken. From here to Franky we could see the setup for the rest of the day. If and when she falls, she'll go a long way. Any reversal on M15 may just be countertrend and not for the faint hearted. The number to watch on the retrace are 4912 and 4924
  • #209,844
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:54am Mar 25, 2010 1:54am
Quoting cloggie
And we still have that HnS, lots of conflicting signals today. M15 may just be consolidating here for a continuation.
Hi kill,

If we are looking at a bear flag and we might also be looking at H&S then we can assume that 47000 will be easily reached...

london is gonna be great. either way we looking at quite a couple of pips as a retrace is also overdue?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,845
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:58am Mar 25, 2010 1:58am
looking at all the information, I'm really tempted to start building a short position on spikes up...

that said, if londn decides it is time for a retrace, I'm buggered

ai, guess we should wait...

EDIT: How about double Bottom???
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,846
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:01am Mar 25, 2010 2:01am
Quoting pawpaw1000
looking at all the information, I'm really tempted to start building a short position on spikes up...

that said, if londn decides it is time for a retrace, I'm buggered

ai, guess we should wait...

May be tempting, but building up short positions on spikes may just be catching falling knives as it could be a retracement in the making that is not going to stop at 4924, so unless your account can handle the 60 pip dd, I would just wait and enter the shorts at a higher price. I rather miss out on some pips by not trying to catch the tops and bottoms but wait for a clear and confirmed reversal/continuation.

And we have tricky boy speaking later on, he may comment on Greece pulling in the IMF
  • #209,847
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:02am Mar 25, 2010 2:02am
Quoting pawpaw1000
looking at all the information, I'm really tempted to start building a short position on spikes up...

that said, if londn decides it is time for a retrace, I'm buggered

ai, guess we should wait...

EDIT: How about double Bottom???
As Cloggie keeps remnding us ...Patience and look at the charts ,,,,
Morning everyone !!!!
  • #209,848
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:04am Mar 25, 2010 2:04am
room dont forget the news from the UK
  • #209,849
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:05am Mar 25, 2010 2:05am
Quoting solrac
As Cloggie keeps remnding us ...Patience and look at the charts ,,,,
Morning everyone !!!!
Hi solrac!!!!

Hope you well and ready to ride this oone to the end!

Thanks cloggie, I see your reasoning and am keeping myself away from the spikes. I see a potentiat double bottom so that also bugged me a bit...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,850
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:05am Mar 25, 2010 2:05am
Good Morning Room,

yesterday was mixed, one green cable trade, but also one red fibre which is still running (about -30 pips), it was a failed countertrend trade, hope Trichets is bringing it up a bit, to get out at BE.

Wish everybody a nice tradingday
  • #209,851
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:09am Mar 25, 2010 2:09am
Quoting kill56
room dont forget the news from the UK
Yes, and the unemployment claims from the US today to see if the bullish mood on the greenback is going to continue. In the longer run the dollar is a lot better off then the euro, it is not the currency of choice just that the euro is the currency of no choice, taking Sterling with it.

Until now Sterling has had it pretty easy, its debt to GDP ratio is worse then Ireland and there is no real pressure for austerity measures in the UK. Yesterday's budget once digested may increase that pressure and may see a big drop in Sterling. I am still convinced that Sterling is overvalued in the long run.
  • #209,852
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:09am Mar 25, 2010 2:09am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Hi solrac!!!!

Hope you well and ready to ride this oone to the end!

Thanks cloggie, I see your reasoning and am keeping myself away from the spikes. I see a potentiat double bottom so that also bugged me a bit...
Morning chap,,,yes ready for it but with lots and lots of more cautions,,,, got my fingers really burnt yesterday and blew almost 20% of my account ,,,,I suppose was just a mix of greed and ignorance ,,,,,,,,/
All part of a learning curve ,,,,, I ll get there eventually ,,, with the help of you guys in here,!!!!
  • #209,853
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:11am Mar 25, 2010 2:11am
Quoting solrac
Morning chap,,,yes ready for it but with lots and lots of more cautions,,,, got my fingers really burnt yesterday and blew almost 20% of my account ,,,,I suppose was just a mix of greed and ignorance ,,,,,,,,/
All part of a learning curve ,,,,, I ll get there eventually ,,, with the help of you guys in here,!!!!

Solrac, I took three trades on three seperate fake outs too at a loss or barely getting out by the skin of my teeth. That is the cost of doing business, a normal business has overheads, we have our losses. Just don't let it kill your account.
  • #209,854
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:12am Mar 25, 2010 2:12am
Quoting solrac
Morning chap,,,yes ready for it but with lots and lots of more cautions,,,, got my fingers really burnt yesterday and blew almost 20% of my account ,,,,I suppose was just a mix of greed and ignorance ,,,,,,,,/
All part of a learning curve ,,,,, I ll get there eventually ,,, with the help of you guys in here,!!!!
AAAH no! damn brother! dont try and win those pips back today, take it easy, and just look to make 10% today(if you get into a good trade!). I say 10% because I normally risk 4% in the hope of gaining 10% but that is up to your mm....

DONT CHASE LOSSES, IT WILL JUST CAUSE BIGGER LLOSSES!!!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,855
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:12am Mar 25, 2010 2:12am
GBP/USD @ sell stop 1.4857, stop loss 1.4930, take profit 1.4500
  • #209,856
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:15am Mar 25, 2010 2:15am
Fibre does have a lot clearer reversal pattern in the making. But again it is countertrend and has no clear indication if it will have any momentum.
  • #209,857
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:15am Mar 25, 2010 2:15am
Quoting cloggie
Solrac, I took three trades on three seperate fake outs too at a loss or barely getting out by the skin of my teeth. That is the cost of doing business, a normal business has overheads, we have our losses. Just don't let it kill your account.
Thanks Cloggie ,,, I understand we have to face up to losses ,,, but in my case , yesterday action came too early for me. I thoght I was ready ,,, but reality is that need to learn much more about my charts and no just trade on the news!! Kneejerk reactions can be bad business ,,,but hey,, here i am again,,, ready learn ........
  • #209,858
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:17am Mar 25, 2010 2:17am
Quoting solrac
Thanks Cloggie ,,, I understand we have to face up to losses ,,, but in my case , yesterday action came too early for me. I thoght I was ready ,,, but reality is that need to learn much more about my charts and no just trade on the news!! Kneejerk reactions can be bad business ,,,but hey,, here i am again,,, ready learn ........
the news buggered me for about 5% also, dont worry, wont be doing that again!!!!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #209,859
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:18am Mar 25, 2010 2:18am
Quoting pawpaw1000
AAAH no! damn brother! dont try and win those pips back today, take it easy, and just look to make 10% today(if you get into a good trade!). I say 10% because I normally risk 4% in the hope of gaining 10% but that is up to your mm....

DONT CHASE LOSSES, IT WILL JUST CAUSE BIGGER LLOSSES!!!
You re right mate,,, I am taking it easy,,,, just a 2% risk max... bit by bit today ......
  • #209,860
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:24am Mar 25, 2010 2:24am
Quoting solrac
You re right mate,,, I am taking it easy,,,, just a 2% risk max... bit by bit today ......

The ADR on cable has been between 120 and 160 so missing 10-15 on the top and 10-15 on the bottom still gives you a range of 90-130 to play with. No need to trade every pip, just look for the setups that conform to your trading plan and give you the greatest chance of success.

Keep in mind this time of the morning is the last hour of Tokyo and can see some profit taking from them before the days trend sets in with the opening of Franky and London.
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