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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #207,901
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:51am Mar 19, 2010 7:51am
Quoting pawpaw1000
sorry for being a nusance but which formation did you spot and how do you know when it completes?

if u dont have time to answer, np...

It is called a bearish breakaway, however it did not quite complete. And we have the start of a continuation pattern, plus the 25ma is pushing her over and it is keeping below the TL, all reasons for me to suspect a continuation, once 5126 goes it is confirmation in my eyes. While all this develops I will only scalp to the short side if anything materialises. Of course all this can change within a few candles.
  • #207,902
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:53am Mar 19, 2010 7:53am
Quoting pawpaw1000
aaah, I see...

so which other sma do u use and why 20 and not say 30?
all depends on time frame for me. 20 ma acts as good short term support and resistance for 1 - say 15 min. its never exact but close. i tend to see on the day what MA's are acting as res and supp
  • #207,903
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:55am Mar 19, 2010 7:55am
Quoting cloggie
It is called a bearish breakaway, however it did not quite complete. And we have the start of a continuation pattern, plus the 25ma is pushing her over and it is keeping below the TL, all reasons for me to suspect a continuation, once 5126 goes it is confirmation in my eyes. While all this develops I will only scalp to the short side if anything materialises. Of course all this can change within a few candles.
wow, thanks... just learnt another couple of tricks
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,904
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:56am Mar 19, 2010 7:56am
down one more time i'm in..., entry for next week maybe... London almost close not hope to far. (but if 200 pips i want too... )
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #207,905
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:58am Mar 19, 2010 7:58am
so, correct me if I am wrong but if it touches 26, bounces off and breaks 60 we can expect it to go to at least 5200?

small chance but theoretically?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,906
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:00am Mar 19, 2010 8:00am
Quoting pawpaw1000
so, correct me if I am wrong but if it touches 26, bounces off and breaks 60 we can expect it to go to at least 5200?

small chance but theoretically?
In principal yes you are correct, I use a close of the M15 above/below S/R as my confirmation together with TL's and MA's. If it does reverse my first target would be 1.5201
  • #207,907
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:05am Mar 19, 2010 8:05am
Quoting cloggie
In principal yes you are correct, I use a close of the M15 above/below S/R as my confirmation together with TL's and MA's. If it does reverse my first target would be 1.5201
Question??

Are your time frames for R&S and TL based on London time?? Ta
  • #207,908
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:05am Mar 19, 2010 8:05am
Quoting cloggie
It is called a bearish breakaway, however it did not quite complete. And we have the start of a continuation pattern, plus the 25ma is pushing her over and it is keeping below the TL, all reasons for me to suspect a continuation, once 5126 goes it is confirmation in my eyes. While all this develops I will only scalp to the short side if anything materialises. Of course all this can change within a few candles.

See as the Bearish breakaway did not quite complete we now have another test of 5162, this next M15 may actually form a bullish breakaway. If the M15 closes above 5162 and returns we have the next leg of a bullish reversal consolidation. Break of either Support or Resistance is needed to confim any of this. You can find so many patterns in candlesticks and I always look for a confirmation using S/R.
  • #207,909
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:07am Mar 19, 2010 8:07am
Quoting cloggie
In principal yes you are correct, I use a close of the M15 above/below S/R as my confirmation together with TL's and MA's. If it does reverse my first target would be 1.5201
great, I've got that set up on my 15min chart and will try it out...

when you are then setting your s/l it would be 10 pips below the support?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,910
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:09am Mar 19, 2010 8:09am
Quoting pawpaw1000
great, I've got that set up on my 15min chart and will try it out...

when you are then setting your s/l it would be 10 pips below the support?
I am not going to recommend a level for your stops, that all depends on your MM and RR ratio. Using S/R is a good start.
  • #207,911
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:09am Mar 19, 2010 8:09am
Quoting cloggie
See as the Bearish breakaway did not quite complete we now have another test of 5162, this next M15 may actually form a bullish breakaway. If the M15 closes above 5162 and returns we have the next leg of a bullish reversal consolidation. Break of either Support or Resistance is needed to confim any of this. You can find so many patterns in candlesticks and I always look for a confirmation using S/R.
aah, ok...

thanks soo much cloggie, know you dont have to help me and appreciate it soo much.
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,912
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:09am Mar 19, 2010 8:09am
Quoting cloggie
See as the Bearish breakaway did not quite complete we now have another test of 5162, this next M15 may actually form a bullish breakaway. If the M15 closes above 5162 and returns we have the next leg of a bullish reversal consolidation. Break of either Support or Resistance is needed to confim any of this. You can find so many patterns in candlesticks and I always look for a confirmation using S/R.
Here is the test of 5162 to the pip
  • #207,913
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:10am Mar 19, 2010 8:10am
Ok, TP hit 2 1.5150. Just to share my view on cable. We are at the 61.8% retracement of the initial bullish move from 1.4976 - 1.5380 [1.5150]. If this level sustains then i forecast we go North to break previous high. If not then we go further down with atleast 100+ Pips. Good Buy at 1.5050. Have a lovely Weekend and PArty on.................
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Numbers NEVER Lie
  • #207,914
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:12am Mar 19, 2010 8:12am
Quoting pawpaw1000
aah, ok...

thanks soo much cloggie, know you dont have to help me and appreciate it soo much.

I don't mind explaining my thinking at all, especially as it is consolidating and there are no setups. I put a lot of importance in areas of consolidation/continuation as a breakout can be very profitable.

It may be a bit boring for some of the other guys on the thread though.
  • #207,915
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:13am Mar 19, 2010 8:13am
Quoting cloggie
See as the Bearish breakaway did not quite complete we now have another test of 5162, this next M15 may actually form a bullish breakaway. If the M15 closes above 5162 and returns we have the next leg of a bullish reversal consolidation. Break of either Support or Resistance is needed to confim any of this. You can find so many patterns in candlesticks and I always look for a confirmation using S/R.

hello,

i have almost same value for the break,for you level 1.5162 is break for buy order if the open candel is above (and close above the open, green candel)
is it that for you the break of a level?
thks in advance
  • #207,916
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:13am Mar 19, 2010 8:13am
Quoting cloggie
Here is the test of 5162 to the pip
mmm...

and it has broken tl and sma but if it doesnt break resistance we will start ranging?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,917
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:15am Mar 19, 2010 8:15am
Quoting FroggyPipes
hello,

i have almost same value for the break,for you level 1.5162 is break for buy order if the open candel is above (and close above the open, green candel)
is it that for you the break of a level?
thks in advance
Yes a reversal/continuation is not confirmed unless a candle closes above or below. This is true for any candle pattern, never judge the pattern without the candle being closed. I will use different TF's to confirm breakout depending on the momentum.
  • #207,918
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:15am Mar 19, 2010 8:15am
Quoting FroggyPipes
hello,

i have almost same value for the break,for you level 1.5162 is break for buy order if the open candel is above (and close above the open, green candel)
is it that for you the break of a level?
thks in advance
yes froggie, that is right...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #207,919
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:15am Mar 19, 2010 8:15am
Quoting pawpaw1000
mmm...

and it has broken tl and sma but if it doesnt break resistance we will start ranging?
Yup, no need in my book to enter a trade, a setup did not materialise. Stay out have some coffee, unless you are a scalper. In my trading I never look for trades, I look for setups. I scalped yesterday because I was so bored waiting for a breakout and ended up with a massive headache and hardly anything to show for it. Some people love scalping and do very well with it, not me.
  • #207,920
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:16am Mar 19, 2010 8:16am
HAHA! candle closed below tl and sma...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
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