EUR/CHF | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #341
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:12am Mar 15, 2010 7:12am
I shorted 1.4560 based on speculator positioning (over 80% are long) and have locked in break even. This pair needs a good 200-300 pip drop lower to shake off the longs and take out their accounts. Everyman and his dog is long so no way is price going to carry them all into nice profit. Price will bleed them all dry and turn after the point that they cant stand it any more and not before.
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #342
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:26am Mar 15, 2010 7:26am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I shorted 1.4560 based on speculator positioning (over 80% are long) and have locked in break even. This pair needs a good 200-300 pip drop lower to shake off the longs and take out their accounts. Everyman and his dog is long so no way is price going to carry them all into nice profit. Price will bleed them all dry and turn after the point that they cant stand it any more and not before.

This is something i still do not understand, certainly because still a newbie in this, but, if, as you say, 80% of ppl are long on this pair, why does it still go down? If 80 % of the ppl want to buy something, normally the price raise. This is from first of economy. Also, as there is so many longs (80% as you propose) why, if SNB acts, doesn't it create a bullish momentum. I read in several places that a lot of ppl are long, i think last i read was 18 long for 1 short in another website. Then again, my question, if so many are long, why does it drops? I must say i have longs from a while , and they are hedged, so i am protected. and i trade happily this pair in the evening , scalping it. Just that i do understand it's fundamental strength, but do not understand all the other part. I also understand that the fundamentals are going sooner or later to change, as i understand perfectly this is not a sustainable change rate for the chf Vs the euro. Maybe till after Eater holliday, or when foregneirs will stop visiting switzerland for winter sports, and the swissies will depend again on their export only.

We're heading now to 1.4500. Aparently, no sign whatsoever from SNB. Maybe they just bandonned the idea of interveening it.
  • #343
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:29am Mar 15, 2010 7:29am
  •  Netexec
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Independent Forex Trader | 21 Posts | Online Now
I assume that most people here are spot traders only. So far I haven't heard any useful strategy regarding trading this pair. May I suggest that if you are a seller that you protect your upside with EURCHF call option? That way you can sell in spot and protecting your backside from Intervention at the same time. Trading spot only without effective use of options when appropriate is like trading with one hand behind your back IMHO. //Netexec
  • #344
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:35am Mar 15, 2010 7:35am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I shorted 1.4560 based on speculator positioning (over 80% are long) and have locked in break even. This pair needs a good 200-300 pip drop lower to shake off the longs and take out their accounts. Everyman and his dog is long so no way is price going to carry them all into nice profit. Price will bleed them all dry and turn after the point that they cant stand it any more and not before.
If they intervene in Tokyo, you do realize that your stop would slip a ton, right?
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #345
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:37am Mar 15, 2010 7:37am
Quoting jackdan
This is something i still do not understand, certainly because still a newbie in this, but, if, as you say, 80% of ppl are long on this pair, why does it still go down? If 80 % of the ppl want to buy something, normally the price raise. This is from first of economy. Also, as there is so many longs (80% as you propose) why, if SNB acts, doesn't it create a bullish momentum. I read in several places that a lot of ppl are long, i think last i read was 18 long for 1 short in another website. Then again, my question, if so many are long, why does it...
He's referring to the speculative positioning data for retail traders. Retail traders tend to screw up.

Euro-swiss will not rally considerably until we have ECB hiking, and preferable faster/earlier than SNB.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #346
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:58am Mar 15, 2010 7:58am
Another question. I know for sure that snb did intervene last year, as we all do. but ¿have they done before (last year)? Looking back in time, i see spikes looking at d1 , or h4, that could be them but they could also be due to market moves. An at those times i wasn't trading at all.


Thanks
  • #347
  • Mar 15, 2010 8:07am Mar 15, 2010 8:07am
Quoting jackdan
This is something i still do not understand, certainly because still a newbie in this, but, if, as you say, 80% of ppl are long on this pair, why does it still go down? If 80 % of the ppl want to buy something, normally the price raise. This is from first of economy. Also, as there is so many longs (80% as you propose) why, if SNB acts, doesn't it create a bullish momentum. I read in several places that a lot of ppl are long, i think last i read was 18 long for 1 short in another website. Then again, my question, if so many are long, why does it...
If everyone who wants to buy at the current level has already bought then there are no more buyers left at this level. The market has dried up. Sellers must then lower their price to attract buyers - thats basic economics

Quoting rahulkghosh
If they intervene in Tokyo, you do realize that your stop would slip a ton, right?
I had not considered that, I have never traded this pair before but the extreme positioning long at support meant alot of stops just below the current price. Price was not going anywhere without at least collecting those stops first. Its a very small position, I think Ill get another 20 pips this session and close it out
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #348
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:10pm Mar 15, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
If everyone who wants to buy at the current level has already bought then there are no more buyers left at this level. The market has dried up. Sellers must then lower their price to attract buyers - thats basic economics



I had not considered that, I have never traded this pair before but the extreme positioning long at support meant alot of stops just below the current price. Price was not going anywhere without at least collecting those stops first. Its a very small position, I think Ill get another 20 pips this session and close it out
Yea be wary shorting this beast. But yea, I disagree with the first paragraph. The speculative index kind of shows the decisions that crappy traders tend to make. It's not really a measure of open interest or positions on the market, just a very very tiny proportion of it.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #349
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:54am Mar 16, 2010 12:54am
works for me, I did the same thing last week with USD/CAD
here is the trade. This is a live account and the entry and exit are marked on the chart automatically by the platform - the small triangle for the market sell order and the small circle for the take profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf1.png Size: 86 KB
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #350
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:45am Mar 16, 2010 6:45am
just dropping one thought of this morning. What if we are at bottom? chf is way too strong, the pair is way oversold, the euro is getting stronger, risk aversion desapearing, and also historical low level.

Just those % rates.... they may well raise them...


dunoo, It is possible thoug....
  • #351
  • Edited 2:02pm Mar 16, 2010 7:13am | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting jackdan
just dropping one thought of this morning. What if we are at bottom? chf is way too strong, the pair is way oversold, the euro is getting stronger, risk aversion desapearing, and also historical low level.

Just those % rates.... they may well raise them...


dunoo, It is possible thoug....
Its all in your head... Your eager, its the demon voices in your head. Your already married to this trade even before you placed it. "Too Strong" lol



Hell I think the CAD is too strong...is the market listening to me? I move aside when wrong or wait for a better entry.
  • #352
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:19am Mar 16, 2010 10:19am
intervention today before FOMC Statement:-)
or maybe tomorrow or
maybe never
  • #353
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:03pm Mar 16, 2010 2:03pm
- 1.38
  • #354
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:15pm Mar 16, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Warwick
- 1.38
Me too... I hedged my longs above 1.50 area and went short at 4620. Would like one more intervention, any size, so I can short more at a better price than where it's at right now, and ride this puppy down. Get rid of my DD and make lots of money. You're right... never marry a trade, ever. I let my assumption over ride my trading rules... but I will make it up. Bring on 1.38... I'll make a killing then.
  • #355
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:10pm Mar 16, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Warwick
- 1.38

I can't stop to think about the bankrupcy of so many ppl in the eastern countries if this would happen. Any idea of how many credit fault this would
create for the swiss bank? yet from 1.51 to 1.45 is 4 % more expensive for
all those pple to refund their mortgage they took in chf to pay their house
in euro.

No pal, i don't see that 1.38. That would make those credits very expensive to
refund. I wonder if the swiss bank could take that default.

But, you look much more clever than me, so, it's all in my heaad.... be happy ...
  • #356
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:51am Mar 17, 2010 9:51am
1.4500 broken. next, maybe, 1.4300. Sorry for all longs on this pair. I still believe the pair is oversold. but, it is all in my head.... )
  • #357
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:59am Mar 17, 2010 9:59am
EUR/CHF is ideal for range trading strategies.
Enter Signature
  • #358
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:24am Mar 17, 2010 10:24am
Quoting jackdan
1.4500 broken. next, maybe, 1.4300. Sorry for all longs on this pair. I still believe the pair is oversold. but, it is all in my head.... )

long - stop loss 1.4280
take profit Haven
  • #359
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:01am Mar 17, 2010 11:01am
Quoting zenoni
EUR/CHF is ideal for range trading strategies.
Not these days. Need to wait for intervention to be done on this pair.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #360
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:22pm Mar 17, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting patryn
long - stop loss 1.4280
take profit Haven
Woow sorry for the long's
it dropped alot today & from daily chart this pair still looks bearish anyways lets see
3 traders viewing now