Cable Update (GBPUSD)

hey bro sorry was busy take this

http://www.forexfactory.com/misc.php...hments&t=91915

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=91915&page=7

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do u honestly believe the big money care about such things..? i doubt it

Any event makes movement, if u don,t they doQUOTE=nAVIN2007;3549208][/quote]

do u honestly believe the big money care about such things..? i doubt it[/quote]

do u honestly believe the big money care about such things..? i doubt it[/quote][/quote]


yes that is true however i personally believe the market moves in a direction with purpose and news brings emotion and therefore opportunity..which lead to a direction bias to enter a trade..

question of patience..waiting for the market to show its cards..i think it has..will be interesting to see the outcome

not really. these kind of surprises usually end up in what they really are- spikes on ur charts. the underlying direction of a pair is impacted by political, and economic differentials between 2 nations. however yea the news that surprise do move prices in a quick move- the purpose mainly is to profit from Stop orders that are triggered otherwise in such times who would be there to take a euro buy when a euro bad news come out

[/quote]


yes that is true however i personally believe the market moves in a direction with purpose and news brings emotion and therefore opportunity..which lead to a direction bias to enter a trade..

question of patience..waiting for the market to show its cards..i think it has..will be interesting to see the outcome[/quote]

Since the overall market direction for G/U is still bearish, we will need to confirm divergence of the trend direction b4 we say the trend has changed. We will go a little bit higher before we finally drop six feet underneath the ground. I am looking to add shorts at 1.5267 when market opens.

Good Luck in your Trading.

something for cable fans on my thread...


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=101

ta
ams

I see what you're trying to show, but here's my analysis.

On the daily and 4hr chart,it's broken a neckline on a double bottom, plus a pretty strong resistance line. Also, if you plot a fibonacci retracement on the daily chart from the top of the wick at 1.6451 to the bottom at around 1.4778, it has crossed the 23.6 line on the fibo and really matches up with a bunch of s/l lines. It really looks like it's going to be headed up big time.

So, I'm going to have to agree with the upward trend. Too many signs that it's heading up.

my view on cable is that it's headed up next week!

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/m...y_1408279c.jpg
Europe's banks brace for UK debt crisis

UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece.

No turning back: Sterling is going to fall further over coming months, warns Unicredit

The Italian-German group, Europe's second largest bank, said Britain's tax structure will make it hard to raise fresh revenue quickly enough to restore confidence in UK public finances.

"I am becoming convinced that Great Britain is the next country that is going to be pummelled by investors," said Kornelius Purps, Unicredit 's fixed income director and a leading analyst in Germany.

Mr Purps said the UK had been cushioned at first by low debt levels but the pace of deterioration has been so extreme that the country can no longer count on market tolerance.

"Britain's AAA-rating is highly at risk. The budget deficit is huge at 13pc of GDP and investors are not happy. The outgoing government is inactive due to the election. There will have to be absolute cuts in public salaries or pay, but nobody is talking about that," he told The Daily Telegraph.

"Sterling is going to fall further over coming months. I am not expecting a crash of the gilts market but we may see a further rise in spreads of 30 to 50 basis points."

Yields on 10-year gilts have already crept up to 4.14pc, compared to 3.94pc for Italian bonds, 3.48pc for French bonds, and 3.19pc for German Bunds, though part of this reflects worries about higher inflation in Britain.

Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, said markets are fretting over how the UK will cover its deficit following the pause in quantitative easing by the Bank of England. The Bank has absorbed £200bn of debt, more than total Treasury issuance over the last year.

"The UK may have difficulty in attracting extra investors to fill the gap. We think they will have to do more QE as recovery falters," he said.
BNP Paribas expects sterling to drop to $1.31 against the dollar this year and reach parity against the euro despite troubles in Club Med. "We're very bearish on the UK," he said.

Big global banks are divided over Britain's economic prospects . Goldman Sachs is betting on a turbo-charged recovery as the delayed effects of sterling devaluation kick in. Britain's trump card is an average debt maturity of 14.1 years, nearly three times US maturities and double those of France. This greatly reduces the risk of a "roll-over" crisis.

UniCredit said Greece is better placed than the UK in coming months even if deficits look comparable. "The polls point to a minority government in the UK, while Greece's government can count on a majority to push austerity measures through parliament. Secondly, the British tax system offers less leverage for a rise in revenue," he said.
Paradoxically, Greek tax evasion creates scope for a surge in revenues from tougher enforcement. "It is not out of the question that we will see a positive surprise in Greece: is there any such hope for Britain?" said Mr Purps.

Still, while it is arguable whether a hung Parliament in Britain will lead to policy drift, analysts said Greece was in trouble already. The country was brought to a standstill on Thursday by the second general strike in weeks. Police clashed with rioters, again reducing Athens to a fog of tear gas.

Observers said that did not augur well for a nation that has hardly begun its three-year ordeal of draconian cuts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...bt-crisis.html

Technically cable is without doubt poised to leap. However Fundamentals, fellow traders, should not be put aside. A couple weeks back nobody could believe how weak cable was across the board as flaccid as f*%k. We have found support and yes the markets must breath, rebounds are inevitable. How far north do we go before we go back down south?

Be cautious with your longs as fundamentals are not in GBP's favour. Remember we are in a strong downtrend so risk management should be your number one priority when buying.

Trade your charts and be ready to switch your positions when necessary as anything could trigger a huge move back down. Stay away from attaching yourself to a certain bias don’t marry a move be flexible.

I am bullish for the short term BTW.

I'm with you 100%. Techs good but fundamentals aweful!!

bullish until wed...

Everyone is thinking GU will go north. Is there anyone who sees the opposite?

if the real probability of going up OR down was 50% what would your chart look like? and what duration is it 50%? how much of your trading is gambling if the odds are not in your favor? It is not always a 50% chance of up OR down, there are trades where the odds are more than 50%

that is what dow theory at its basics is. essentially subscribing to markets as cyclical. I should probably be a little more specific. I have spent a lot of time with a lot of professors that were traders/ ex traders and I have read a lot of trading books. I am more of a follower/ adopted the trading philosophy of Victor Sperandeo (might have got the last name wrong).

That historically there are times when retracements are MORE* likely. I highly recommend reading his trading book, where he truly explains dow theory and its practical applications.

Unfortunately I will agree with you that it is not a commonly used indicator or method, I believe it is misconstrued and the founders were too subjective in their methods. It takes a slightly more mechanical approach. Which is what I use.

I am also not much of a believer in history repeats itself. If it did explicitly life would be boring. I believe history does not repeat itself *BUT IT RHYMES* Therefore when it comes to options and equities I am more of an implied volatility kinda guy rather than historical.

But hey each to his own! but I do want to shed light on the fact that IF it was a 50% chance of it going up or down then what exactly are we doing here and i think your chart would not trend.

Fibonacci are just numbers that are found in nature at certain intervals?

They are a self-fulfilling prophecy and truly make no sense why markets would retrace at certain Fibonacci levels?

at their basics they are just numbers that are found in nature?

based on this methodology (which was originally applied in nature, these applied mathematics were taken to markets by someone else) and the logic behind it I should place a short when venus is aligned with jupiter?

Not that I am dissing the method, I know traders that use it profitability however every professional trader in the business college laughs at me when I bring it up, I just think the origins are kind of weird and I don't understand why people love it so much, maybe I just don't know how to use it.

We both don't agree with the others method (or don't understand it) which is okay and I hope this didn't offend, I don't intend it to, just explaining my thoughts!

PROVE ME WRONG!

hope your trading week is going well!!!

me

Do we know every thing? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Who are trading with FIB level and S/R laugh about who are trading with planet. Both are trading with no material thing. No trader can swear that next resistance will not be broken. Both of these traders are making money. I don't know how trading with planet can make success, but there are some who are doing good money with.

In this business, the most important of all, whatever technique you use, you have to make money by having more success trades than loss. How? it's your problem. Do it, that's all.

We are two then lol

Makes sense as 95% traders lose. Although keep your SL wide or wait before entering trade as it could spike up some. And ofcourse, we can be wrong on this one. It's important to have a decision than no decision.

All this gossip about where the GBPUSD will go next is of zero value in my opinion. Who cares what the so called anylists says? Ask yourself if you have a setup to go long or short and then trade according to that setup.

Talks about a bad economy and reading all the crap which is available on the net and spesifically in this forum will keep you out of trades and out of money, making you as a trader even more confused about your bussiness which is trading.

If you are a real trader then other peoples opinion of where the market is going to go should have absolutely NO influence on you and your trading.
If price goes up you look for buy setups and visa versa.

Trust your setups, take your trades and go about your business which is trading and to make money. Newsletters, forecasters and speculation about market direction WILL rob you from profitable trades.
Trading is that simple.
If GBP goes up our down 20 000 pips I WILL MAKE MONEY FROM IT.
A strong or weak economy has got nothing to do with making money in this bussiness.......