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  • #210,721
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:22am Mar 13, 2010 5:22am
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks for telling me how to plot trend lines ... only been trading 7 years always wondered who to do it. In life, nature and statistics NOTHING is exact

Black channel using wick lows
Red channel taking 2 lows of 1st bottom . Not 2nd bottom 3/6 just pierced this line.

I think for now I use the red channel as my lower tl .

Attachment
There is several ways to draw lines, and of course that traditional ones like head to toe are the best, but lot of times PA will never reach it, for weekly TL, the best lines are all them below 1.3050 from actual week.

I have posted in my blog my weekly chart that I am following since February, Twee simple erased my blog link from my signature, it is in my profile for everyone interested in see the chart and I will later in the week explain some rules I have to draw other type of Trend lines, especially my symmetric lines.
  • #210,722
  • Mar 13, 2010 6:37am Mar 13, 2010 6:37am
Not out of the ordinary to expect more upside into option expiration, but price will not be allowed to run that much, most likely will hit that average, base & sell off again. Signals must come from weekly charts, not daily ones.

Nice weekend to all!
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Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,723
  • Mar 13, 2010 7:45am Mar 13, 2010 7:45am
Quoting malcolmb14
I take that bet .... what are the terms. I.E at what price will EU continue downtrend ?

Helped by increased dollar strength, EU will have a really hard time closing above 1.38. What we've witnessed now, is the long awaited correction before it falls further. It may push a high of 1.383x but will then revert to main trend and fall towards 1.30/31. My earlier analyzes and trend chart still remains valid.
  • #210,724
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:12am Mar 13, 2010 8:12am
Quoting enterfx
It may push a high of 1.383x but will then revert to main trend and fall towards 1.30/31. My earlier analyzes and trend chart still remains valid.
Malc, is right by saying, if DOW breaks resent top, forget about 1.34,

or whatever your magic number down there,

look into 1.40-1.45 area, I can tell you this without any charting.

And if DOW Corrects few 100 point that still be not enough to push EU

below resent lows, perhaps back into 1.35 area in that case.
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  • #210,725
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:17am Mar 13, 2010 8:17am
get well soon Chicky and get your speculative ass back here ASAP.


Quoting Chicky
I am here just to mark my attendance.

Please pray for my health no matter what religion you follow or even if you are a non-believer.
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,726
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:20am Mar 13, 2010 8:20am
Here is my EU daily chart.
Notice the similarity of last Friday position with the one on 01/11 (1rst vert line)?
CCI has peaked both times while momentum not quite following suit.
Price tumbled a few days later.
I'm not saying history is going to repeat, just that one has to be careful and not get sucked up in all the hooplah.
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  • #210,727
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:23am Mar 13, 2010 8:23am
Quoting jsspmk
Not out of the ordinary to expect more upside into option expiration, but price will not be allowed to run that much, most likely will hit that average, base & sell off again. Signals must come from weekly charts, not daily ones.

Nice weekend to all!
Nice and logical explanation for the implication of the option expiration. At what levels will be your said base? Your chart on how the levels are derived from will be great.

I am not an expert in EW, but EW is still not complete. If the resistance are breached, then the whole EW will fail. On the other hand, if the 20 SMA support gives way, we may see the completion of the whole EW. I am also not a volume expert either, but volume during the recent upmove was weak, might indicate something. Candle above BB might also be an consideration.

Now the critical point is whether the recent reversal pattern and the break of the long tern down channel be maintained or it is a fake breakout.

PS: I am still a learner in the art of forex. Pls be kind and any correction to my analysis is acceptable. Thank you.
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  • #210,728
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:26am Mar 13, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Chicky
I am here just to mark my attendance.

Please pray for my health no matter what religion you follow or even if you are a non-believer.
Dear Chicky,

I have been a quiet listener in the forum and is a great fan to your analysis. Please get well soon and we need you back.

I will pray for your good health and also for everybody here.

  • #210,729
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:27am Mar 13, 2010 8:27am
Attached is a daily and a weekly chart on EU. After looking at those candles, I dont know how a short in EU can be justified.

140 in a week or 2.

Btw I am also bullish on GU and selling in EURO-GBP. I would post a chart but as y'all know I am lazy and those charts look the same.

PS # I am a little more bullish GU than EU, 157 here we come.
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Its all in the mind.
  • #210,730
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:33am Mar 13, 2010 8:33am
Me too have drawn TL on actual body discounted wicks always. what made u change now?

Quoting malcolmb14
ever heard of drawing trendlines on body of candles rather than wicks. closes / opens have way more importance.
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,731
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:39am Mar 13, 2010 8:39am
last few day was good for eur
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  • #210,732
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:51am Mar 13, 2010 8:51am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Malc, is right by saying, if DOW breaks resent top, forget about 1.34,

or whatever your magic number down there,

look into 1.40-1.45 area, I can tell you this without any charting.

And if DOW Corrects few 100 point that still be not enough to push EU

below resent lows, perhaps back into 1.35 area in that case.


What you describe (weak USD=strong stock markets) is not holy grail
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,733
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:57am Mar 13, 2010 8:57am
agreed. weak usd = strong equity does not always work that way.

in fact now a days mantra has been strong dollar = strong market

but this can change now Equities will move higher from here. good data from US. And so will USDX weaken.

either way it can be profited from


Quoting jsspmk
What you describe (weak USD=strong stock markets) is not holy grail
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,734
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:00am Mar 13, 2010 9:00am
Quoting jsspmk
What you describe (weak USD=strong stock markets) is not holy grail
It's exactly what's going on for YEARS, Strong stock market means,

risk appetite is up and who wants to hold Dollars with 0% interest rate.

Dollar is in long term Bear Market and will be pushing 74 bottom real soon.
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  • #210,735
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:02am Mar 13, 2010 9:02am
u forgot to metnion that strong markets and US local assets mean chinese, indian and europeans want to come in and buy part of the action. to buy here in the US, we still accpet dollars so u have to sell ur local currencies to buy USD and stocks--that is what drives both USD and Wall street higher.

make sensE?

Quoting SkyzerFX
It's exactly what's going on for YEARS, Strong stock market means,

risk appetite is up and who wants to hold Dollars with 0% interest rate.

Dollar is in long term Bear Market and will be pushing 74 bottom real soon.
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,736
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:03am Mar 13, 2010 9:03am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Malc, is right by saying, if DOW breaks resent top, forget about 1.34,

or whatever your magic number down there,

look into 1.40-1.45 area, I can tell you this without any charting.

And if DOW Corrects few 100 point that still be not enough to push EU

below resent lows, perhaps back into 1.35 area in that case.

It's going to be a couple very interesting weeks ahead. Who said Dow won't decline? The volume pushing recent highs are veakening and dow and S&P is hanging in a thin line. Like I said will be intersting to see next and following week. I did not say 1.34 for eu, but 1.30/31.
  • #210,737
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:24am Mar 13, 2010 9:24am
Especially Dollar looking very "bullish" here on chart DOW vs Dollar

DOW (green) going to get up there above previous highs and Dollar

Red line, well you can see it with your own eyes..
Attached Image
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  • #210,738
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:37am Mar 13, 2010 9:37am
Forgive me senior members to ask a noob question:

It is a fact that US is a net importer. Therefore, doesn't it make sense that a strengthened USD will make imports to be cheaper to help in its industrial growth and local consumption?

Thanks for explaining.
  • #210,739
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:39am Mar 13, 2010 9:39am
USDX vs S & P index correlation has jumped between 0.7 and -0.7 for last 40 years. Now a days it has been very negatively correlated, but that does not mean this is the holy grail of shorting or going long US dollar.





Quoting SkyzerFX
Especially Dollar looking very "bullish" here on chart DOW vs Dollar

DOW (green) going to get up there above previous highs and Dollar

Red line, well you can see it with your own eyes..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts_19118_image006.gif Size: 72 KB
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,740
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:40am Mar 13, 2010 9:40am
Quoting enterfx
Helped by increased dollar strength, EU will have a really hard time closing above 1.38. What we've witnessed now, is the long awaited correction before it falls further. It may push a high of 1.383x but will then revert to main trend and fall towards 1.30/31. My earlier analyzes and trend chart still remains valid.

Gold 1100 is critical and gold has been dropping for 9 days now. If gold break 1100 then support is 1075 and 1050 .

DJ is coming to resistance and we have to watch that carefully next week

DX seems to have a rounded top and support is 79.70 another level to clearly watch . Also on DX daily the jma (blue pink moving average ) has gone flat indicating a possible retracement.

EU could hit 1.4080 ish before fomc with a 50% retracement of last down move off 1.4550 , then we can sell IF and only if there is reason to for move to 1.3500 or lower.

Do not get me wrong I am DJ bear , and dollar bull long term due to a decent correction in the indexes , just things will move in waves.

As long as this volatility remains bulls and bears can make money

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