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DanUK Trend Trading Journal 2010

  • #121
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:57am Mar 11, 2010 4:57am
Quoting Knight Rider
I feel there is a breakout coming soon.
Impulse wave finished at 10.15 am on 5 minute.
  • #122
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:09am Mar 11, 2010 5:09am
Quoting Knight Rider
Impulse wave finished at 10.15 am on 5 minute.
Just shorted GBP. Am I concerned if it goes against me in the short term? No.
  • #123
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:35am Mar 11, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Knight Rider
Just shorted GBP. Am I concerned if it goes against me in the short term? No.
After the impulse wave, I am watching EUR/USD very closely now. I'm already in the long term trend, but would like to add to it at some point.

Still short on GBP/USD. This is a playful bet!
  • #124
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:05am Mar 11, 2010 9:05am
Quoting Knight Rider
After the impulse wave, I am watching EUR/USD very closely now. I'm already in the long term trend, but would like to add to it at some point.

Still short on GBP/USD. This is a playful bet!
Hi Knight,

I am also in GBPUSD short off inner TL and 50% with the trend :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 109 KB
  • #125
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:10am Mar 11, 2010 11:10am
Quoting bez3000
Hi Knight,

I am also in GBPUSD short off inner TL and 50% with the trend :-)
Hi Bez,

Nice chart. I played this one for fun on a very short timescale - took 40 pips and closed out. I have been watching EUR/USD for quite some time now. Something is going to happen - I think it wants to go higher in the very short term. Ive thought this for a while now. I want to catch this one again on the downturn at the right price.

Your short is following the long term trend though.

Nice to hear from you.

My trend line on GBP was very similar to yours, but as I said, I only took this trade for a bit of fun while this market sorts itself out. Must be quite annoying for a dibs trader, these markets.

Thanks for your imput.

Knight Rider
  • #126
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:25am Mar 11, 2010 11:25am
Anyone looking at AUDUSD? Long until 9200 resistance.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 88 KB
  • #127
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:41am Mar 11, 2010 11:41am
Quoting bez3000
Anyone looking at AUDUSD? Long until 9200 resistance.....
Are you a speadbetter? Your graph looks similar to something I've seen before.

I am dubious with this pair and have decided upon a contrarian view that this trend is likely to roll over in the not too distant future. But, hey, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. Their house prices seem high to me and higher interest rates ain't going to help. This is not the only reason.

Your trend line fits. I would have at least three indicators for a set up and then I would use price action to determine entry level. I use fibs similar to you if I want to do a short term trade. More importantly, I use fibs on the longer term timescales to get a more accurate picture of where price is going.


Knight Rider
  • #128
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:53am Mar 11, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Knight Rider
Are you a speadbetter? Your graph looks similar to something I've seen before.

I am dubious with this pair and have decided upon a contrarian view that this trend is likely to roll over in the not too distant future. But, hey, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. Their house prices seem high to me and higher interest rates ain't going to help. This is not the only reason.

Your trend line fits. I would have at least three indicators for a set up and then I would use price action to determine entry level. I use fibs similar to you if I want...
I'm sorry, just thought I would add something due to the nice interest you have shown.

If you believe USD will strengthen in the future, then some of these charts (weekly AUD,EUR etc.) should be screeming out to you if you look at it from an Elliott point of view. The same goes for commodities.

This flys in the face of a recovery (I'm inclined to name it cover up) and states that we are heading for a fall in the not too distant future. There are those who will probably disagree with me. That's alright. Most people never had a clue what was happening a few years ago.

Anyway, good trading Bez.
  • #129
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:35pm Mar 11, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting bez3000
Anyone looking at AUDUSD? Long until 9200 resistance.....
Hi bez,

Yes I have a long on from 0.8850.

Regards,

Dan
  • #130
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:44pm Mar 11, 2010 1:44pm
Dan are you in the AUDUSD?


Quoting DanUK
Hi bez,

Yes I have a long on from 0.8850.

Regards,

Dan
  • #131
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:01pm Mar 11, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting DanUK

Yes I have a long on from 0.8850.

Regards,

Dan

Dan,

Although I can see from a 4 hour chart your reasons for entering this trade, I don't understand why you considered the trend to be up, on a daily chart.

I'm attaching what I see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 13 KB
All flesh is as grass
  • #132
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:05pm Mar 11, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting bez3000
Dan are you in the AUDUSD?
Indeed I am
  • #133
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:10pm Mar 11, 2010 2:10pm
Dan how are you managing this trade? Trailing stop etc......

Quoting DanUK
Hi bez,

Yes I have a long on from 0.8850.

Regards,

Dan
  • #134
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:11pm Mar 11, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting dod
Dan,

Although I can see from a 4 hour chart your reasons for entering this trade, I don't understand why you considered the trend to be up, on a daily chart.

I'm attaching what I see.
Hi,

I didn't say the daily chart was up!

However, the daily trend has not yet reversed. It started going up in the 0.6300 area about a year ago and although it has shown signs of reversing so far it hasn't proven itself.

Talking about daily trendlines though... the only technically valid daily trendline I can see is down and price is up near it now so I would caution against taking a long position at the moment unless the trendline is broken first. My A/U long was initiated with plenty of room for this not to be a problem though.

Regards,

Dan
  • #135
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:12pm Mar 11, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting bez3000
Dan how are you managing this trade? Trailing stop etc......
Yes, my standard method - 100 pips at a time.
  • #136
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:13pm Mar 11, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting dod
Dan,

Although I can see from a 4 hour chart your reasons for entering this trade, I don't understand why you considered the trend to be up, on a daily chart.

I'm attaching what I see.
Just to add to that... regarding lower highs/lows - if the trendline holds and it does indeed make a second lower high the odds will be stacking in favour of a short.

Regards,

Dan
  • #137
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:18pm Mar 11, 2010 2:18pm
Is anyone looking at EURAUD? I am thinking short at 15000.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 115 KB
  • #138
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:57pm Mar 11, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I didn't say the daily chart was up!

No, you're quite right - you didn't!

I think I just assumed as much by implication, because you said a few posts ago that your "preferred analysis is higher highs/lows / lower highs/lows. I prefer to watch these swings on a daily chart and they tend to be a pretty reliable way to gauge the trend."

Anyway, thanks for explaining.
All flesh is as grass
  • #139
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:23pm Mar 11, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi bez,

Yes I have a long on from 0.8850.

Regards,

Dan
Well played Dan.
  • #140
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:33pm Mar 11, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting bez3000
Is anyone looking at EURAUD? I am thinking short at 15000.
I don't normally play this pair, but if I did it would be 50 pips higher. Now I've said that it will probably hit the EMA50 and reverse back.

I don't know what Dan would do, but that is what I would consider a play. I think the JPY/USD and AUD/USD could be EXCELLENT plays in the near future.

Best,

Knight Rider
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