Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I'm running with shiti's bulls on this one. Sterling @1.9 by June. Ha, there i said it!

lol whatever floats your boat mate. I choose the lesser evil, click ignore.





p/s : I will make an exception for Jassim tho

hahaha no such luck for him on my behalf, thats one f###ker who went on mine

Forums are unstructured and very noisy environments, which causes confusion. If you think people can learn from forums, then I beg to differ. I am assuming that you learnt everything there is to know about Forex trading from this forum then?

Really?

You've not come a long way yourself. Try not to sound too arrogant.
Now where is that ignore button ...

I received several private messages and a few public request to elaborate on my trading style. I started typing and what started as a post turned into a mini forex course. I know some of you have different views and don't find my view relevant or valid and that's okay but I was assured by the numerous people who contacted me that they were interested I'm posting this little mini course for them. It's about 10% of what to say but I would need a weekend seminar for me to further explain my views so this is going to have to due for now. I know that pics and charts prob won't show up on this posting but the captions under the pics will so I've attached the actual word doc so you can see this little course with pics and charts if you would like. Again, this is just something I whipped up about a hour ago and I'm sharing for those who seemed interested. Sorry about the length of this thing on the post wall.


Jroyal’s Mini Forex Course

Tools: Fibonacci Retracements, Tom Demark Trend Lines (supply and demand lines), Fractals(multiple time frames)

Core Principles:

Tom Demark Trend Lines – These trend lines are among the most important tools in my toolbox. The first thing I love about them is that they are completely objective. I’ve found the less subjective you are in trading the more success you’ll see. The clear rules make sure that you have them drawn the same way every time. The other really import factor about these trend lines is that they are dynamic. They change as the market dictates them in real time by attaching themselves to the most recent swing highs and lows so you always have a real time objective view of the market. Work the same on all timeframes but the longer the time frame the more reliable or stronger the indicator is.

Note: I’ve found that a trend line break on a chart generally looks like a good reversal candlestick pattern on a higher time frame chart. Example: Up trend line break on 5-minute chart will often look like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing patter on a 15-minute chart. Trend line break on 15 min chart will have the same effect on 1 hour chart, and so on and so on. Point being if you like to look for candle reversal patterns at support or resistance on a particular time frame, maybe you should consider looking at a smaller time frame for a trend line break instead and you may get in a little earlier and with a smaller stop.

Fibonacci - Whether you believe in fibs or not isn’t really important. They may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Here’s what’s important. They are a ruler. Like the kind you had in elementary school. The market trends in different directions. A trend is to continuously make new highs in a up trend and to continuously make new lows in a down trend. The market generally doesn’t move in a straight line. Example: if the market was in a downtrend, it may go 50 pips down 25 pips up. That’s a net 25 pips down. Well if it did this 8 times you would have a down trend and 200 pip move. The thing is the 25 pips up equal a 50% retracement against the previous 50 pip move down. All fibonacci does is measure the retracements against the main direction. It’s just a measuring tool. Look at it as a “price ruler”. The key is to know what is the main direction and which is the retrace. Moving averages are great for this but as time has gone on I’ve found something I believe is a little more “leading” and less lagging.

Fractals – This is by far the most complicated and somewhat abstract thing to explain in words and is also the single most important aspect of trading. You could rename fractals to mean “perspective”. The core rule is that if the market is moving in a particular direction then that means it’s taking more steps in one direction then in the other. I believe the key to trading is to learn how to interrupt this into a map of price and know whether your in a retrace or main direction of price based on the timeframe that your in but also be aware of where you are in relation to a larger time frame or bigger picture scenario. I know that’s very random so I guess I’ll pull up a chart and attempt to show you what I’m talking about.




This chart shows a section I picked off the weekly GBPUSD . It shows a point where price broke through a TD trend line creating what I call a fractal. We now know what point we are going to use as our swing high. The most recent swing high that was the beginning of the move that pushed price through that trend line is our high point. Now we can add a Fib to measure when to get back in to sell. To me, our bias is now down.



On this chart we’ve added the fib. What we don’t know is where the bottom of the fib will land. As the market continues to make new lows then we move our fib further down but we don’t change the fib until we get another trend line break or to a up bias until we get a trend line break to the upside on the same time frame chart. Now let’s look at this on a daily chart. Being that each bar represents a week of time we don’t need a moving average to tell us what the direction is. When that trendline broke, the direction became down on a weekly level. Now let’s look at it on a daily level



Here each bar represents 1 day of price action. You have up days and down days but the same rules apply and now you know that weekly were in a downtrend and that all up moves are just retraces against that down move.



On this chart I have removed the fibs but put horizontal lines reminding me where those key fib levels are.



Now we put individual fractals on sections based on the same principles but now on a daily level but with the insight of knowing where I should consider slowing my buying due to the map that the weekly level has provided me. This is a very important chart. The weekly has told us big picture what’s happening which is the market is in a down trend so all our moving averages and other good but lagging indicators are going to be pointing down. When this trend line was broken to the up side that tells us that the daily direction has changed to up but only on the daily level, the weekly down bias is still intact because there hasn’t been a trend line break up on the weekly chart to tell us otherwise. We now know to start measuring up moves with the fibs. The lagging indicators on the daily chart will not have caught up yet so we have a chance to get in before a lot of the market that only trades based off lagging indicators gets in. Here you see price moved up and many would have been looking to sell this thing back down but you would have been waiting for a buy at the 78% level and caught almost the bottom of the move but knowing once you got up to the 50% level blue line which is our fib line from the weekly chart you better start being careful with your buying. Powerful Stuff!!!!



Here we get a daily candle with a near doji at the 50% weekly fib but that is follwed by a trendline break to the down side. We didn’t know that 50% was going to be the reversal level but we would have know we were entering a sell zone and intra day on our 15 minute , 1 hour, and 4 hour charts we would have see it on the day the doji was formed and should have already been in the trade going short before we even got the trend line break on the daily chart.




This shows where the next fib would line up after the trendline break and again you see the same pattern. Trend line break, retrace, move further down.

I consider this part of trading just the mapping portion of trading. If you swing trade then this system alone should have 60% to 85%% accuracy depending on how you apply it. You can use this mapping technique on all time frames but the larger the time frame, the more reliable the system. Also where you get in and out is important. If you put in a limit order automatically at 50% levels and put your stop on the other side of the swing then you would win a lot of trades but your stops would be big and it would take time before your trades panned out. You’d end up with a fewer trades and less accuracy. I prefer to zoom in on this map and trade this on a 15 minute chart but have a big picture road map. The trades that I hold are the ones where I get good signals to sell/buy at the key daily fractal fib levels. I end up with 20 to 30 pip stops at times but 150-300 pip targets all while still keeping a 75% accuracy rate and 4.4 profit factor. Okay, that may have been me bragging a little, sorry Magix. He likes to get on me about my saying that I left my ego at the door.

I could write a whole book how to take this exact mapping technique down to smaller time frame charts and show you how I actually trade this but for swing traders, I just gave you a freebie that you can use effective by itself. It’s not hard to figure out, the concept doesn’t change just the time frame. Top down analysis, you’ve heard it a million times but it really is the most important aspect of the this trading that we’re all trying to succeed at. Hope this helps you guys. Good luck.

I learnt to trade forex in 2006 from a British Pianist who had married a jap woman and settled in jap named "Naspiano" in a marketiva chat room

Till date I use the techniques he taught me.

Yes forums are good and carry excellent instructional content, you just need an open eye and an open ear

I think this all boils down to a matter of perspective.

All forums have some structure.

Here we have threads for interactive trading and trading systems, and several threads in each. That in itself defines structure.

Noisy...well, it all depends on where you land and what you are looking for. Here in the cable thread we have several personalities from great traders threw to rank amateurs giving several points of view on trading complete with charts and play ranges...and than we have the chatters.

Because this is an open public place, you are sometimes forced to tolerate a little shenanigans and chatter, especially when market goes into a lull. This can be remedied by each individual in choosing what you read or what you pay attention to. There is an ignore feature that allows you to target specific members who you feel offers nothing of either entertainment value or valid market perspective. The choice is yours, exercise it, there are so many facets of life where your options are limited.

Learning....

Well, again...perspective.

There are several of us who offer trade systems with charting and support. Some who wish to if not share our knowledge at least validate it for our own personal trading.

This is again, where you have your choice. As you are offered several perspectives and as each individual is to themselves, you stand before a
smörgåsbord of information and can select what suits your palette best.

The only true place to learn about market is by taking part in market. Whether be it demo or dollars you are trading, this is the only true place to have a chance to apply what you read to how you will play.

Defining yourself as a trader for time frames, play ranges and amounts, indicators, charting and overall threshold for profit and loss is up to you.

This is the market.
This is the forum.

Enjoy it and take advantage for what it offers.

Perspective.

I my opinion we topped out and are starting to move back down again. 49814 was not breached, we broke the TL on M15 below the 150ma and there is a lovely bear candle on H1 if we pass 49363 it confirms it for me.

Trapped....

Not untypical for NY session, but can help you make a couple of bucks if you see the actual range.

We are currently in a support range defined on the M30 24SMA, stiffled for top side by the 200EMA on the M15.

The imediate trend is on the 1m. 1440EMA resistance, 600 EMA support.

A break out from this range will lead to the longer time frame ranges.

With an overall bearish immediate daily trend, the shorter term time frames can define the longer, or at least offer a couple of bucks up and down.

halfday chart shows a possibility of cable turning. If price can test anywhere near 5165 level by tomorrow or the day after, we'll have a double bottom formation, which is a strong reversal signal.
As mentioned before, I'll maintain my remaining long positions with 4873 being the line of defence. Close below that price level will negate current scenario.
Good luck.

Recently I updated a common view on cable, now I post a scenario for intraday/scalper traders.

Since GBPUSD has made its previous low, it formed 3 waves towards the uptrend. The bullish impulse can’t be confirmed for sure until the price makes the 5th wave to form clear 5-wave pattern, that is much more likely to be a beginning for the upside move.

Buy orders can be opened now with stops right below the lower border of wave 3, 1.492. If price goes further to the upside, breaking 1.4995 level, you can choose between closing buy order and keeping it opened changing the SL level lower, below 1.487.

*While preparing these posts, price action of cable showed an upside move for approx. 40 pips, it can be a good sign of the continuation of the uptrend.

The chart is attached in the signature link.

Of course the forums are structured, with content shared by structured humans with 2 legs, 2 hands, 2 eyes, 2 ears, some have taps some don't, a mouth, a nose, isn't all of that structured ??

1 hour charts

I started shorting cable again from here

I would say that the assumption of an uptrend would make more sense on a day where we have created a new top without creating a new bottom.

Though there is current bullish price movement, we have failed to find yesterdays high as well as have continued to dig a little deeper on the daily. Current top seemingly the 200EMA on 15m chart. A break and hold above might be indication of further topside targets...but we can always look at that when we get there.

The day is not over, but I don't think we should entirely put the cart before the horse.

For whatever reason the buying and selling are muted. Being that I place importance on trend lines and the sideways action that we saw earlier this week and late last week I came over to the Bear side. This price action I've seen today if it continues upward is starting to look like my original thoughts might still be in play.

If this continues we're headed for price further price contraction and then a very strong move in either direction. Being that we've been oversold for quite some time and that we are at the 61% retrace level of that up move from Jan-Aug 09 and the hammer that formed on the weekly last week, I'm inclined to think the explosion may be to the upside. This low volume makes it real hard to read but I'm leaning that way.

By the way, there is a point in my mini forex book that I did today where I give you a little shout out. Don't know if you read it or not but I definitely didn't leave my ego at the door on this one.

As a day trader/trend trader/hobbiest...

I agree, it is hard to ignore the movement off bottom, both volume and price and it could be possible that we do see higher highs today coupled with the lower low, but we aren't quite there yet.

I know like myself you are trending most likely in the smaller time frames, and right now the bulls are in control, but we still have some defined movements and not much by way of confirmation for further topside movement. (by my standards).

For me the relevant time frame is the 5m, as we have both confirmed (24x200) and played to the 15m resistance, but for me to see and believe higher highs, I will play scalps on the immediate trend, watch as/if support continues to move up and closely monitor top side resistance.

Everything for me is about rejection and confirmation right now. Have played em up, down, and up again, and am currently flat until we move on to confirm the 15m or drop support on all time frames below 4hr...(24SMA)

Lots of play range, and a little more defined trading than yesterday, has actually been a lot more profitable and playable. Give me the rest of the week like this and beer is on me for the weekend.

here you are lion...,

before London open actually i've prepared this...
i will show you this chart, and will talk to you so cocky and say

"where is your short SL today? i will eat that !!"

cos you keep saying short, short and short...

but how lucky you are close your short at the right place...
anyway plan is plan, i have to do that even it fail...

I was just pointing out to someone new, like myself, should not solely learn to trade using a forum, which was my response to Javapips and other newbies, when I got the misimpression that she was using the forum as a sole source of learning, whereas it should be part of a wide range of learning sources. I agree a forum is a community to share ideas, trading strategies, chit chat and even learn, but I was just suggesting it should not be your only one with direction to another site that will aid learning. It seems to me that you didn't like my response and proceeded to jump down my neck, so I just retorted. Anyway, you can ignore me but I'll keep my eye out for your contributions to this thread. Nice knowing you.