EUR/CHF

haha yea. scalped out ten pips on the way down.

I so can't wait till intervention is over(second half of this year probably). Got a pretty decent EUR/CHF scalping EA I made, but it needs more volatility in EURCHF. Not crazy ass movement like this.

Not short but trying to ride the interventions like everyone else.

I was trying to apply what the SNB did last year to the present: defending the 1.50 line until the Greek crisis forced it to let the CHF appreciate against the EUR. A trader could have made easy money buying near 1.50 and riding the intervention up for most of 2009. But in December, that trader got slaughtered going long. The SNB's interventions haven't stopped the overall weekly trend, only slowed it.

1.5 level had been guarded well last year for about 9 months, and there were a lot of stops accumulating below that level, so once this type stop zone being hit, it turns the market into a brand new mode, and market will generate very strong shorting force, since the original bulls will have to sell their positions for exit.

On a psychological view point, once 1.5 level was passed, there was no reason for SNB to intervene right after, due to it can not go against the market force. Its best bet was the 1.5 can't be passed. But when Greece's crisis came up, it is wise to give up guarding the level, save the bullets for next intervention, which actually happend later around 1.46 level.

i see now, 1.4613, and i ear in the back, jaws theme again.

Anyway, this pair has such a strong bearish trend since long, very long. Maybe too long? i wonder what could make it change it's trend....

25 pips....


oh yeah....

some hell of a crappy intervention

I wouldn't hold your breath for serious intervention now. Recently a SNB spokesperson said they would be hoping to prevent any sudden movements. (It's fact, Google it - I've lost the reference). In other words, intervention is not working and the message to Swiss industry is "get used to it".

Looking at the charts the most recent interventions failed and possibly, looking at the last one, had to be reversed. This is because there was no substantial interest (outside) in buying the Euro. Powerful as the SNB is, they can not be expected to hold up the Euro against the Swiss Franc. By proxy this is also buying the Euro against every other currency. We have seen national banks try to do this time after time and fail.

If and when the Euro finds its level we might be bullish.

Guess they changed their mind


body { margin-top: 4px; margin-left: 2px; margin-right: 2px; margin-bottom: 4px; } p { font-size : 10pt; font-family : Arial; margin-top:0px; margin-bottom:0px; } pre { font-size : 8pt; font-family : "Courier New", Courier, monospace; margin-top:0px; margin-bottom:0px; } ZURICH (Dow Jones)--The Swiss National Bank, the country's central bank, Thursday left interest rates unchanged and repeated it is ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets in the event of a massive rise in the Swiss franc.
After its quarterly policy-setting meeting Thursday, the SNB left the target range for its benchmark three-month Swiss franc London interbank offered rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.75%. It continues to keep the rate at 0.25%, a record-low target in place for the past 12 months.
The SNB said it would decisively counteract any excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc.
Economists had broadly expected the bank to leave rates on hold and make a statement on foreign exchange intervention


1.46 seems to be the delicate area.

Well... not much change in stance from the SNB. They will continue to reign in excessive strength on the franc. Fundamentally, it's obvious that this pair is going to continue down. The Swiss economy is healthier than the EZ, and things in the EZ don't look like they will clear up for a while. I think as long as we don't have another dip in the global economy like the end of 2008/early 2009, SNB could raise rates before EZ does. This will really send this pair south. SNB has said that a stronger franc hasn't hurt their exports, but as long as the strength doesn't get excessive. In February, after the big intervention, we saw eur/chf price decline slow and steady, almost a leveling off. I'm sure we will continue to see a slow and steady decline (steady - b/c of the small interventions). I wouldn't be surprised to see price in the lower 4500s by the end of this month or sometime in April. Some economists are calling for 1.42-4300 area by year-end. We shall see I guess. I've given up on SNB shooting price back above 1.50. So with what longs I have left, I have shorted from this morning's spike and will short more on any higher movements in price. My hedge is so that my drawdown will not grow anymore, no matter which direction price goes. I've been able to work out of jams like this before, but it takes time, patience, and lots of discipline. I don't recommend hedging as an option for trading, although some people like to. It isn't my cup of tea though. I only do it for extreme situations. I'll keep everyone posted as the weeks/months go by. In the meantime, this may be my last post on this thread for a while since I know the interventions are only going to be small injections to maintain a slow decline (Euro)/ slow rise (CHF).

Last year, this time of the year, other economical circunstances, but on the euro going up like now, they did raise the pair 500 pips. They keep on saying they will act aggresivly to avoid the chf to become stronger. Will they do it as aggresively as last year? maybe not. But they keep on insisting they will act in accordance ( i would think aggresively) , and they have not lately. Maybe they are sending advise not to short the pair. or maybe nothing will happen, but they became masters in intervening when not expected. Lately, on the friday close, or asiatic market. The pair is slowly getting to it’s all time lower low, the country economy is going so “super” well, better than fantasic… Fundamentals are the chf has to become stronger. but, how aggresive can the SNB be?

I went long at 1.4592

stops are rumored to be below 1.4575

SNB appears to be on the pair to substain it as a big Swiss bank is pushing it down, usually they intervene when market least expects them to act, but I noticed that their shots in the last sessions have been very small

I'm completely with Rahul now.... wait for intervention and then short the pair about 15 mins afterwards. I am hoping for one more push from SNB today so I can add more to my short and start reducing by drawdown. The short I have now is keeping my drawdown the same... I'm so glad I did that. Thank God for UK account. Just a reminder, the last Friday of January, SNB intervened right after London close. So there could be a possibility today within the next hour.

I wonder what the new pain threshold is.

Who the hell knows now... my guess is 4500. Some Swiss commercial bank pushed the price down below 4600 on Friday. Talk about civil war....lol. I just hope for SNB to push price back up into the 4600s so I can short some more at a better price. Better plan on seeing e/c to eventually head for the 4200-4300 area in the next few months, especially if the swiss economy keeps doing well. SNB may raise interest rates before EZ does by the end of this year or before the end of this year.

well, i believe we are in danger area again....

let's see...


but i have, again, the sound of jaws movie in my head....


let's see, i'm more probably wrong ...

happy pipping all

This guy writing this article has an interesting opinion re: SNB intervention. Something to be mindful of.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1935...y-intervention

I think this is a trap(allowing euro-swiss to move this low). They'll be ready to intervene soon... muahahah

this last 8.15 ppi news, -0.3%. . -0.5 than forecast.

This is a lot for the swiss.

My comment:

¿¿Feeling the strength of your currency yet?? This is just the beginning, gentlemens.

we are now 2009 and 2010 lowest low... 1.4534.... it went lower when
the big crisis in 2008 (lehman bankrupcy) , and then, back in 2001/2002, after the twin terrorist attack....


Well, this is a damn dangerous area for short, and they keep on shorting. this is definately a rebound area, natural, without the intervention. the currency went stronger, but it was on strong news (9-11 or lehman).

Are we going to see anything here?

ton of longs being squeezed out. intervention will be far more effective.