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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #204,661
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:43pm Mar 9, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting alex1976
lion, could i go short here?
Right now...I don't see a really great reason to take a position bullish or bearish.

There is only sideways movement.

Just my opinion
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,662
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:45pm Mar 9, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting alex1976
lion, could i go short here?
if 1.5 remains a tough nut then yes to 1.47 approx
  • #204,663
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:45pm Mar 9, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Will your 24sma (red) on the 1h push it down?

Dr. D.
Support still with the 30m, 15m and 5m, 5m cleared for path to 15m 200EMA.

IF does that could find support on the H1 24SMA for possible higher grounds.

Late in the day to be making a move...

But we haven't moved in like what 6 hours...anybodies guess.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,664
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:49pm Mar 9, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting JRoyal
Dead on in my opinion. That move down is what broke the upward trendline yesterday which changed the fractal to bearish. With that said, most sellers are looking to re-enter at 50-61% retrace level which put's the shorters looking to get in at the 1.5060- 1.5100 but man it's some strange price action going on and doesn't seem to want to get up there. I thought your 1.53 was viable but I can't tell you with any strong conviction on what is going to happen with the market dragging like it is. Something is fishy! How's that for technical.
I had a little greater conviction yesterday, even being below the 4hr support of a topside run to 1.53...

But the sell down in Asia, carried threw into London...

AND

IF that didn't cause me enough confusion, the opening bell for NY was the bottom of the chart.

That is why I started scratching my head wondering what was going on. IT was only with the upside movement that I had started to consider cover trade areas, which you refer to as fractals.

Same idea...

Playing to bottom of NY support and tumble would complete the cycle of cover trades. Allowing NY to play entire range from top to bottom...

When seeing this, typically goes back to tumble back down, as now NY would have the clearance for bearish plays in the same zone...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,665
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:50pm Mar 9, 2010 1:50pm
price is just lingering around 1.499 atm. so boring
  • #204,666
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:52pm Mar 9, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting Magix
I had a little greater conviction yesterday, even being below the 4hr support of a topside run to 1.53...

But the sell down in Asia, carried threw into London...

AND

IF that didn't cause me enough confusion, the opening bell for NY was the bottom of the chart.

That is why I started scratching my head wondering what was going on....
Agreed
  • #204,667
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:01pm Mar 9, 2010 2:01pm
I would love to see the candle on an hourly chart look like a tick.

-

There's yer hour suckers....

Now guess where we going....muwahahahahah

April fools come early this year?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,668
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:11pm Mar 9, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Will your 24sma (red) on the 1h push it down?

Dr. D.
Hourly support slipped under price.

No movement, support building.

Last time I got caught against this, wasn't pretty.

I got the feeling that sitting on hands is the safest for me right now. Though tempted by the longs.........will movement allow for a range worth trading? And will it hold?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: support.jpg Size: 98 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,669
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:29pm Mar 9, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting Magix
Hourly support slipped under price.

No movement, support building.

Last time I got caught against this, wasn't pretty.

I got the feeling that sitting on hands is the safest for me right now. Though tempted by the longs.........will movement allow for a range worth trading? And will it hold?
I've been sitting on a short from 1.4999 for about 4 hrs waiting
for the 5m to pinch together and then release... down.
Think I'll move my s/l to BE now.

I knew we'd pierce this TL... even IF we stayed flat. lol

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #204,670
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:29pm Mar 9, 2010 2:29pm
To share my view on a fractal. I consider price action between trendline breaks to be fractals. I trade the current "fractal" I'm in so I don't confuse myself. I tried to put together a chart showing how I trade. I show each individual what I call "fractals" that I concentrate on. Each fractal has a fibo attached to it.

Note I couldn't illustrate all of them because the screen would have been a mess with a bunch of overlapping fibs but hopefully you get the point. I just picked a couple at random. By only concentrating on one fractal at a time the only thing I need to do is find out if I'm getting close to a major support/resistance area on a larger time frame that may trump the standard, pierce, retrace, big move in trend direction formula that repeats over and over again.

Basically it's trendline break, retracte, big move in main trend direction. Same process over and over and over. Hope this chart makes sense to somebody.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily gbpusd view.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #204,671
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:37pm Mar 9, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting fourxtrader
I've been sitting on a short from 1.4999 for about 4 hrs waiting
for the 5m to pinch together and then release... down.
Think I'll move my s/l to BE now.

I knew we'd pierce this TL... even IF we stayed flat. lol

Dr. D.
I was in a few times just above you...But...getting all bored n stuff, I started looking at the other charts. Much as I hate to base a play for Cable on correlation...I did notice that EJ had made confirmation on 5, found support and looked to move on. I closed my shorts...took a long on EJ...

Well, closed -2 on the EJ thing when it was taking to long, and happy, though not thrilled about my cable play.

Still seen support on the M30, as I am an all or nothing guy...given the patience it took to play today, why assume confirmation, I guess rather than throwing my dink into the fire, I will sit n wait. N wait...N wait...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.jpg Size: 175 KB
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  • #204,672
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:52pm Mar 9, 2010 2:52pm
Significance of the 1440 EMA 1m chart.

Like all Moving Averages, it can help to show the past, to understand the present.

2 charts,
1st one, last time we closed and played above the 1440EMA...
2nd one, here is where we are at currently....

Now I am starting to understand the Tug O War....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1140a.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1440b.jpg Size: 74 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,673
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:02pm Mar 9, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting forexlion
if 1.5 remains a tough nut then yes to 1.47 approx


I just went short at 4987 with a tight stop at about 5019.

going for 90 pips.
  • #204,674
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:13pm Mar 9, 2010 3:13pm
Hats off to the 1m for generating some of this lively
movement. All the ema's came together within one
pip. Too bad it happened during the dead zone with
no volume, no follow thru.

Magix, there's your 1440ema (dotted).

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #204,675
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:24pm Mar 9, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting JRoyal
To share my view on a fractal....
Hi JRoyal,
Thankyou for that explanation, a very simple and consistant method of framing levels on charts.

Do you also drill down to the lower timeframes i.e 1 hour and 15 minute and do the same?

Also once price hits the area you're looking at taking a position, do you place limit orders at these areas or do you watch price action to confirm and enter at market?

Thanks again, will be implementing that method on my charts.

Cheers
  • #204,676
  • Edited 3:41pm Mar 9, 2010 3:31pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting kill56
yes baby ching 14940 first red carpet down there
Hi kill,

I saw in your LAST Post #204416 got Temporarily Suspended.
Why ??
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #204,677
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:43pm Mar 9, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Magix
I had a little greater conviction yesterday, even being below the 4hr support of a topside run to 1.53...

But the sell down in Asia, carried threw into London...

AND

IF that didn't cause me enough confusion, the opening bell for NY was the bottom of the chart.

That is why I started scratching my head wondering what was going on. IT was only with the upside movement that I had started to consider cover trade areas, which you refer to as fractals.

Same idea...

Playing to bottom of NY support and tumble would complete the cycle of cover...
Magix,

Yesterday was a bit of a mind blow. I am in agreement with you that a long term play may not be the best situation right now, hence why I am only doing scalp trades. We broke a 4H bear flag yesterday however still have not exited the range of the candle made back on the first day of the month, thus are dealing with inside bars here. I too had a stronger conviction for topside movement until yesterdays asian and london sessions. Again, like we have seen in the previous months, there is absolutely little demand for buyers, but on the same sense the movements down do not have the same strong convictions either suggesting the bears may be losing strength. In addition, there has been absolutely no retrace into the the previous month's range which is also atypical. I have said I do expect this to drop but only after a retrace to the 1.54 range. IMHO something still seems strange here, so hence why I am taking scalp trades only. Asia and London will be interesting in my opinion.

C>
  • #204,678
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:48pm Mar 9, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting Ctic
Magix,

Yesterday was a bit of a mind blow. I am in agreement with you that a long term play may not be the best situation right now, hence why I am only doing scalp trades. We broke a 4H bear flag yesterday however still have not exited the range of the candle made back on the first day of the month, thus are dealing with inside bars here. I too had a stronger conviction for topside movement until yesterdays asian and london sessions. Again, like we have seen in the previous months, there is absolutely little demand for buyers, but on the same...
It would seem with that 1440EMA out of the way now, and the confirmation on the 5m playing through, I have a current interm target of 1.5030. Area as we have been discussing with Mal as a pretty critical place.

What a friggen Grind today...

Didn't I say I was going to be collecting bottles instead of trying this action today...or was that my plan for tonight?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #204,679
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:56pm Mar 9, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting fourxtrader
I've been sitting on a short from 1.4999 for about 4 hrs waiting
for the 5m to pinch together and then release... down.
Think I'll move my s/l to BE now.

I knew we'd pierce this TL... even IF we stayed flat. lol

Dr. D.
Same here.. My short at 1.5 was triggerred in the morning around 7.45 PM PST..
  • #204,680
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:01pm Mar 9, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting Magix
It would seem with that 1440EMA out of the way now, and the confirmation on the 5m playing through, I have a current interm target of 1.5030. Area as we have been discussing with Mal as a pretty critical place.

What a friggen Grind today...

Didn't I say I was going to be collecting bottles instead of trying this action today...or was that my plan for tonight?
Lol, I think that is tonights plan. The interm target seem logical and reasonable. I have a same target there on my charts. I will definately not trade until late Asian session/London tonight as I have to rest...since I was up late watching/closing that last sell I put in yesterday. I didn't go to bed until 7:30am and woke up at 11:30am today.
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