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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #203,841
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:55pm Mar 5, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting ams
Close and open are indeed a very good place to scalp for 10-20 pipees. Sometimes one can get lucky and get more like today, but long term trades where expectation is higher, is a different story.
this chart is ugly its zoomed out so much . Not that I think they are the holy grail or anything like that but they have been a very useful tool to me , you can see in this down trend once the weekly open was lost for support, drops where pretty significant , and of course in a market trending up its just backwords of this , the daily open and close works very similar just the pip count is smaller. The proverbial line in the sand too me , it has served me well. The market determines those levels so there is no line I can screw up and draw wrong , lol I am not as good at drawing lines as ctic or wormie is ha ha
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  • #203,842
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:56pm Mar 5, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting Ctic
Help my long....or stop me out at +5
To refresh memories.
  • #203,843
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:02pm Mar 5, 2010 1:02pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Apologies mate..I didn't go through all the posts just few ..

Checked now and you were spot on

ta
ams


Quoting Ctic
Um yes...Don't forget CTIC... AMS. I was the first one in this forum preaching long on Monday.
  • #203,844
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:06pm Mar 5, 2010 1:06pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
As they say, beauty is in the eye of beholder.

If something suits you and serves you well, you should be making full use of it.

Weekly, daily open and close are very significant levels. It gives a good idea of where market is going or want to go.


As you can see from last 3 days market is making higher highs and today made a lower low due to NFP spike. Price behaviour suggest it doesn't want to go any low but high. If we close above 51350 it's a very good indication of seeing a gap on the UP side next week and perhaps 53500. However, close below 350 suggest market isn't ready to break this level yet.


ta
ams






Quoting digger1
this chart is ugly its zoomed out so much . Not that I think they are the holy grail or anything like that but they have been a very useful tool to me , you can see in this down trend once the weekly open was lost for support, drops where pretty significant , and of course in a market trending up its just backwords of this , the daily open and close works very similar just the pip count is smaller. The proverbial line in the sand too me , it has served me well. The market determines those levels so there is no line I can screw up and draw wrong...
  • #203,845
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:12pm Mar 5, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting ams
Apologies mate..I didn't go through all the posts just few ..

Checked now and you were spot on

ta
ams
No worries.... I just woke up and missed all the NFP fun. I still hold the opinion we are going up to the 1.54 - 1.56 mark before we decied to fall or rise.
Why? Even during 08 when cable jumped out of an airplane, every candle retraced into the previous candle up to the the major support line. Also, we hit 1st target fibs for March and the Quarterly candle. Also, hit the bottom wall of the channel line. We usually do not blow through a major trend line on the first shot. Just my thoughs.

C.
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  • #203,846
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:17pm Mar 5, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting Ctic
No worries.... I just woke up and missed all the NFP fun. I still hold the opinion we are going up to the 1.54 - 1.56 mark before we decied to fall or rise.
Why? Even during 08 when cable jumped out of an airplane, every candle retraced into the previous candle up to the the major support line. Also, we hit 1st target fibs for March and the Quarterly candle. Also, hit the bottom wall of the channel line. We usually do not blow through a major trend line on the first shot. Just my thoughs.

C.
CtiC,

You "Stud Biscut" Trader you...!
I remember this thought just about every time i trade now,
you have mentioned previously, keeping it in mind in the 'bigger' picture,
of things... (Along w/the Fib's & Elliot's).

Have a Super Great wk'd CtiC,
'We'll see you around fresh next wk,

Jeff !
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #203,847
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting TerpFan2
CtiC,

You "Stud Biscut" Trader you...!
I remember this thought just about every time i trade now,
you have mentioned previously, keeping it in mind in the 'bigger' picture,
of things... (Along w/the Fib's & Elliot's).

Have a Super Great wk'd CtiC,
'We'll see you around fresh next wk,

Jeff !
Hey Jeff,

LOL...I am just a common trader trying to make an honest buck...or dishonest buck if you have some inside information on where the cable will be in 1H. lol.. Always keep in mind the bigger picture and always protect the green pips. Have a great weekend as well and see you next week.

C.
  • #203,848
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:31pm Mar 5, 2010 1:31pm
Ditto,

I'm just sticking to my Trade Plan, doing the same as well,
building it a Little, and every way i can. It's just hard when you're
wk'n nights, and can't quite get to it, but i know by now...
The Mk't's always, gonna be there.

It's just a matter of discipling yourself, to trade when
you're fresh & best & have the time. A couple, one or two good
trades for the wk, and it's better than "THroWinG Jack$$" in
a sense of gambling at the mkt... It will always be there.
Thx CtiC,

-You too, have a great wk'd,
w/the Wife & Family, etc...


Jeff !
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #203,849
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:36pm Mar 5, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting ams
As they say, beauty is in the eye of beholder.

If something suits you and serves you well, you should be making full use of it.

Weekly, daily open and close are very significant levels. It gives a good idea of where market is going or want to go.


As you can see from last 3 days market is making higher highs and today made a lower low due to NFP spike. Price behaviour suggest it doesn't want to go any low but high. If we close above 51350 it's a very good indication of seeing a gap on the UP side next week and perhaps 53500. However, close below...

bro cable did go up allmost 100pip today ist strong enough to go up true a close above 15130 might take it higher may be to the 15220 but that will be the max first we have to break 15160 strong support from there we go back to see higher lows aweekly close below 15130 will take us to the rang we was in i could be wrong thats what i see
  • #203,850
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:46pm Mar 5, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting wormboy
dx was rejected heavily at a significant level.

Chart :
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5238

Careful if shorting, cable could still edge higher before ny close.
Good luck.
bingo.
we're now in the 50% retrace level @5175.
bye bye & have a good weekend.
Thank You
  • #203,851
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:52pm Mar 5, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting wormboy
bingo.
we're now in the 50% retrace level @5175.
bye bye & have a good weekend.
5400 here we come...lol
  • #203,852
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:01pm Mar 5, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting wormboy
bingo.
we're now in the 50% retrace level @5175.
bye bye & have a good weekend.

enjoy bro u too take care
  • #203,853
  • Mar 5, 2010 5:07pm Mar 5, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting Magix
It very well could....

A quick observation as you like the moving averages as well, throw a 500EMA onto the M15...this has seemed to be our stopping ground...Clearing this means we could head to the hourly resistance, currently 1.5163 <-200EMA 1hr chart.


Moving averages are for amateurs hey?

LOL.

I love that. The moving averages that told me, and those that listen to price action that we were holding support. The moving averages that gave (depending on broker) within a 2 pip accurate target for top resistance.

Lets see that shit done with all the hand drawn trend lines, and gut instinct.

When the chart talks, are you listening?

Support on H4
Resistance on H1
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,854
  • Mar 5, 2010 5:26pm Mar 5, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting TerpFan2
Well Magix,

w/'Wireless Carrier.
-Just too exhausted. Apparently, a good move for the body,
and the account.

Jeff !
WISP tech here Jeff.

MY brother!

Long distance High 5!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,855
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:44pm Mar 5, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting TerpFan2
Well Magix,
Though it's popped North, it still looks dead & killed.
Fresh eyes & interest next week looks best!
Have a Great Wk'd,

Jeff !
I gotta agree with you on the pop and the dead thing, but it really isn't for me to decide if we go higher, how much higher we go, or if we just crash on Sunday through next week and see a new monthly low...

It doesn't matter to me.

There were a lot of bears going into this run, when we were still bullish on the charts.
There were a lot of bulls when the bears crushed the chart down.
Now that we are taking some recovery on the charts, it is easy to see, there is still a lot of bears left, playing against a current bullish trend.

For the last few days, there has been still a lot of sellers, thread based, and has been some range to the chart that would allow profit to be made here, but easy to see that if you missed the plummet Sunday night into Monday morning, the money has been buying up the charts.

A few of us have realized this..and I know myself have cautioned a lot and often about selling support, but people will do what people will do.

The monthly says that if the OSMA goes subzero, which could happen over the next month, we will see falls like some of us have never seen before. The weekly is still in bearish mode, and can easily turn on a dime...so as far as taking a bearish position, well with money management, this will most likely prove to be a good play, but I don't see that happening for at least the next short period of time.

Moving into the daily chart, the daily resistance, redline (24SMA) sits at about 1.5446, and the top of the ball on this yellowline (200EMA) is saying with support we could see up to 1.6012. Now these are moving averages so, subject to change, but the big x I have put on the daily is because I really don't think the play will sustain that much strength...but who knows, I could be wrong, as far as targets go, the red line really could play out.

The H4...

This has been the money chart this week...After we gained support, we have been unable to lose it, saying that our next possible target to the topside, again if support holds is 1.5564, which could move to the same area as the 24SMA on the daily.

Issue...that dotted line on the chart. IT is a rejection line(55EMA), and can also be visible on the hourly as the 200EMA.

Now, we have rose to this height, only now capturing the support from the 30m chart, not shown, which means, we could just come crashing back down and create a new low.

From whatever depths we see come Sunday, I believe this line to if nothing else be retraced by London, and if we close above this during Asian session, that'd be an even stronger argument to keep holding long. At least in my books.

We are going to see some whipsaws again this week, lulls into explosion because the long charts are currently playing against the short. TUG O WAR.

IF we do come crashing back down, well so be it, I follow the money so could give a rats ass about direction, I am only in it for the ride.

These are my thoughts going into the weekend, but hey, like you said, with fresh eyes, this might look a lot different come Sunday.

Enjoy the weekend.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,856
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:03pm Mar 5, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting mloistianto
hi guys.. adding entry @1.5029 long. according to LTL, h4 Support, and PA in D1. GU is in reversal mode. my sl is below 1.5000 will adjust depends on situation and PA. good luck..
still holding. no change made. sl still below 1.5 good luck.. Bulls still got everything on the table. why would bother for a short..
  • #203,857
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:13pm Mar 5, 2010 9:13pm
This still has more room to go up. Not saying there is a change in trend. But i see it going to the 1.5250 range or at least close to that. After that major R at 1.5400 area.
  • #203,858
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:23pm Mar 5, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting Clouds
Ill wait for 4990 to go short
Hey Slugger...you nutted it for sure

Nice call.

Hope you didn't have a market order trip on this call...buwahahahahaha.

Can you maybe mention when you are going long, so I know the EXACT moment to short?

Thanks in advance.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,859
  • Mar 5, 2010 10:59pm Mar 5, 2010 10:59pm
Yo Brother..

That 4H support held up very well and is now history as we are moving up to the resistance point. Let's see if it breaks.

Quoting Magix
Moving averages are for amateurs hey?

LOL.

I love that. The moving averages that told me, and those that listen to price action that we were holding support. The moving averages that gave (depending on broker) within a 2 pip accurate target for top resistance.

Lets see that shit done with all the hand drawn trend lines, and gut instinct.

When the chart talks, are you listening?

Support on H4
Resistance on H1
  • #203,860
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:58pm Mar 5, 2010 11:58pm
Digger, your up late...market closed you know..lol. Like I am one to talk
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