US NFP Trading - March 2010

Hi guys, this week NFP, dollar fall? Forecast -40... Hard winter last 2 weeks of last month...

I'll wait and see what Goldman Sachs estimates, they've been getting better and better at their forecasts.

Where can I read those estimates?

Equities sell ...Dollar strength is my take.

As backwards as this sometimes sounds...tis the way it is.

Hi:
Non-Farm Employment Change
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif
-40K-20K

In:
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php





In other post i read that it´s possible 300 pips race....

Bloomberg usually give the table of estimates on Thursday showing the high/low and median estimates by over 80 economists.

The pair to trade around the NFP release (if you must trade at all) is USD/JPY, as it has a very high positive correlation to any surprises in the headline figure, especially if both the UR and the NFP change both surprise in the same direction.

Where can you see the goldman sachs estimates ??

Goldman Sachs are forecasting -100k for NFP. They think the snow storms had a big effect on the job losses. If -100k comes out, expect some serious movement!

pipraiders, do you have a friend at the U.S. BLS? I'm confused as to how you know the actual numbers well before the release otherwise.

Here we go

Bloomberg Survey

==============================================================
Nonfarm Unemploy Manu Avg
Payrolls Rate Payrolls Weekly
,000’s % , 000’s Hours
==============================================================

Date of Release 03/05 03/05 03/05 03/05
Observation Period Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Median -68 9.8% -15 33.7
Average -60 9.8% -16 33.7
High Forecast 30 10.1% 15 33.9
Low Forecast -150 9.5% -45 32.8
Number of Participants 82 80 21 33
Previous -20 9.7% 11 33.3
--------------------------------------------------------------

He doesn't. He's promoting his pipraiders website by the looks of things. It's a subscription news site.

Nobody knows the figures before the release unless you're a government official dealing with the NFP and if you took action with that knowledge, you'd be in a lot of bother.

if it is as weak as predicted,what are the some of the scenarios we can see eg for the Euro/usd or Gbp/Usd???

The biggest movement will come from a deviation from the forecasted.

It's been bothering me that everyone is saying it'll come out worse than expected. Goldman are predicting -100k!!

I wonder what the chances of it coming out better?

TBF, goldman sachs have been pretty spot on lately.

The dollar will fall.

Fact.

how can you be so sure ?

Fact, huh? You have the figures already, then?

Not saying it won't fall but kind of stupid to call it a fact when the NFP could be anything.

Information is leaked all the time in forex well before scheduled release times.

Wait and see...

Even if you know the figures how can you tell if the dollar is going to be sold off or bought ?

Hedge funds.