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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #203,581
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:41pm Mar 4, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting cinex
i will go short after 1.54 and go on vacation then
Remember cinex,

It may not make it to the 1.54. That is simply my target, doesn't mean it will be hit. The charts will tell you when it is time.
  • #203,582
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:49pm Mar 4, 2010 2:49pm
This is the daily dx. Tho still trending upwards, it is showing signs of weakness at a major level. Price had also stalled a few days from previous high. There's also the possibility of the bearish divergence kicking in if the subltl gives way.
One of the few reasons why some of us are not too crazy about shorting cable bigtime from current levels yet. NFP tomorrow would probably be able to shed some light into where we are likely headed.
Choose a bias now & be prepared for whipsaw special from the sharks. (unless of course, you're already sitting on a big pile of profit)

Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thank You
  • #203,583
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:53pm Mar 4, 2010 2:53pm
Ill wait for 4990 to go short
  • #203,584
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:09pm Mar 4, 2010 3:09pm
I know Ctic but i have a vision about .53 and will put TS later i think it MAY reach .54 before 1.49 we wil see
  • #203,585
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:24pm Mar 4, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting Charlyeze
Since my fledging trading career began 2 years ago,one of the greatest Trader and Teacher I have come to know and respect is Forexlion.He has the head and tool to nail the market nicely.I know for a fact!!!


Charles.
How much did he pay you to post this ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #203,586
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:34pm Mar 4, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting acumen
Hmmmm.

Watch the usdjpy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsQMDKoxwBo
Excellent Video bro!
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #203,587
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:36pm Mar 4, 2010 3:36pm
Quote
Agreed, could range and could spike but don't forget we have NFP coming too...anything can happen. If you notice that even back in 2008 when it dropped like a rock in the ocean each monthly candle retraced back into the previous month (most being a 50% retrace). That is one reason why I think it will retrace back in. In addition, we hit a major support line (bottom of bear flag) 161.8 fib for quarterly candle etc. In all my years of trading I have never seen a pair blow through a major support/resistance line without at least some form of a retrace...

I agree...retracement is due.

But one point to notice is it has retraced to 5130 and thats about 50% retracement from 1.55 high- 1.47 low.

I am not sure whether it will retrace fully- high 1.64- 1.47 low. If it retraces this way, then we can expect 1.55.
  • #203,588
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:41pm Mar 4, 2010 3:41pm
Quote
i will go short after 1.54 and go on vacation then http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif

Well, the whole point is whether it will retrace to 1.54

If 1.50 is the last call to enter the short ride, then think for a moment.

Enter short at 1.50

Cover it at 1.40

1000 pips gain

1000 pips X 10 standard lots = $ 100,000
  • #203,589
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:45pm Mar 4, 2010 3:45pm
Quote
Clouds,

That is about the same level I was thinking, I have a 1.05 level in mind.

1.05 is Support 3 on yearly pivots for 2010. I think thats an extreme target.

In that case, you must be looking at a continued US $ bullishness.
  • #203,590
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:49pm Mar 4, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting John D
I'm no Elliot Wave expert (if U R please comment) but this might have some merrit.

Food for thought.


Attachment


JD
i'm not expert too, just little comment if allowed,
you place wave 1 and wave 2 so strange (cos it inverted ),
change 2 become 1 and 1 become 2, that's will be the nearest one in EW structure, 2 is correction from wave 1,...
(i don't talk about counting "where should begining of wave 1" this is just base on your chart numbering only..)
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #203,591
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:50pm Mar 4, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting kingfisher
Well, the whole point is whether it will retrace to 1.54

If 1.50 is the last call to enter the short ride, then think for a moment.

Enter short at 1.50

Cover it at 1.40

1000 pips gain

1000 pips X 10 standard lots = $ 100,000
or SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4990 TP 4900 , SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4990 TP 4900 , SELL 4890 TP 4800

= $100,000
  • #203,592
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:55pm Mar 4, 2010 3:55pm
Quote
or SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4990 TP 4900 , SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4890 TP 4800, SELL 4990 TP 4900, SELL 4990 TP 4900 , SELL 4890 TP 4800

= $100,000

Thats good..atleast all are sell and in major trend.
  • #203,593
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:38pm Mar 4, 2010 4:38pm
tomorrow we have NFP

here is my take
ES ended today on highs but on NO volume .. this is called a no demand bar , in fact the last three days the volumes have been lower and lower and today printed the lowest volume of all on an UP day since 1068

NFP on the news they are talking baout it being effected by snow storms. Hold on so a snow storm hits and all of a sudden everyone is laid off ?

A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding the following employees:

- general government employees
- private household employees
- employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals
- farm employees

This monthly report also includes estimates on the average work week and the average weekly earnings of all non-farm employees.

I think this snow storm talk is just bullshit to cushion the blow.

IF es drops tomorrow due to no demand bar today we could see gu move down into 1.4830 or lower . The bear flag on the daily has broken and now it is sell all rallies unless 1.5100 is taken out
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #203,594
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:40pm Mar 4, 2010 4:40pm
just went short at 5028.
  • #203,595
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:49pm Mar 4, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
tomorrow we have NFP

IF es drops tomorrow due to no demand bar today we could see gu move down into 1.4830 or lower . The bear flag on the daily has broken and now it is sell all rallies unless 1.5100 is taken out
The play came about much the way we discussed last night mal, no true confirmation on the M30, and a spike down after the attack at HOD, yeah, I think we were both pretty much expecting that during London, not the NY crossover....

We were even damn close on the retrace area...(I was a little closer )

Point is...

Every time (over the last monthish) we have hit the retrace zone, which is where both of our 2 last HOD's have been, we have gone into a mass plummet, and not stopping to pick up hitch hikers along the way. STRAIGHT
DOWN. This time...Well, that's not what happened.

Tiny little Moving average that I like to use, 24SMA...4hr chart says, right now...this is the support line. Try as we may to have closed below it...No bananas.

Now, this could just be a resting ground, but...Until I see us clearly crush this line, I am going to cautiously walk into all trades.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,596
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:51pm Mar 4, 2010 4:51pm
salam hi all
i hope theres no damege
  • #203,597
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:52pm Mar 4, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting alex1976
just went short at 5028.
Interestingly enough alex....

The chart from my previous reply looks a lot like the 15m support (red line, 24SMA).

Good luck with the trade, personally, when in support of this line, I try not counter.

Just an observation...not saying you done wrong.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #203,598
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:52pm Mar 4, 2010 4:52pm
I agree

something does not smell right

gu on that down move printed huge volume on the down candle 60 ... could be hidden buyers. In fact voluem was as high as the low of week indicating possible huge buying pressure however looking into the smaller time frames there was a ton off sellers on entire move. Daily massive support 1.5000 ....tough one to break unless us market collapsing or something

also es was held up today 100% for sure , although it has printed a no demand bar this has to be confirmed by a down bar tomorrow.

Quoting Magix
The play came about much the way we discussed last night mal, no true confirmation on the M30, and a spike down after the attack at HOD, yeah, I think we were both pretty much expecting that during London, not the NY crossover....

We were even damn close on the retrace area...(I was a little closer )

Point is...

Every time (over the last monthish) we have hit the retrace zone, which is where both of our 2 last HOD's have been, we have gone into a mass plummet, and not stopping to pick up hitch hikers along the way. STRAIGHT
DOWN. This time...Well,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #203,599
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:02pm Mar 4, 2010 5:02pm
i think i have between a 55 to 65% chance of getting this short trade!

Anything better than 50/50 with good MM is a solid way to go.
  • #203,600
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:02pm Mar 4, 2010 5:02pm
malcom in the house hey bro how are u
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