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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #203,561
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:32pm Mar 4, 2010 1:32pm
Every time I come to this thread I see everyone talking about going long, on the most bearish pair. Go short, go on vacation, come back, profit!
  • #203,562
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:40pm Mar 4, 2010 1:40pm
I think 1.5 holds for now. Go long now. Aim for 1.5075, 1.5100 & so on with the round numbers. I think we are going to come back down but not before we go up for a while.
  • #203,563
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:41pm Mar 4, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Clouds
Every time I come to this thread I see everyone talking about going long, on the most bearish pair. Go short, go on vacation, come back, profit!
Yeah, I like what you say. I stopped reading all this a long time ago. When I realized that the more I was following this thread, the more money I was loosing.
Reading of people going long after some retracement and expecting 1.65 or even 1.68!!
Another thing I've learned is NEVER GO COUNTERTREND! too much stress and uncertainty.
Take the daily chart, Look at where the trend is heading, and find a good point where to enter and follow the trend. Of course put a SL...

regards,
zz
Jacko's turtle
  • #203,564
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:44pm Mar 4, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting Clouds
Every time I come to this thread I see everyone talking about going long, on the most bearish pair. Go short, go on vacation, come back, profit!
Clouds,

You are right, It is a very bearish pair. But you are not realizing that things do not go straight one direction. My entry on my long is 1.4860 which was the bottom wall of the bear flag. With my sl in place I can not lose on this long position at all. At the very least I will make 80 pips. I realize this is a retracement. You have to remember many people in the forums are not long term traders like you and hold the postiion for months or years, from what I have noticed. And you should agree that it can go up 400 pips before it drops 1500 pips.
  • #203,565
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:48pm Mar 4, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting Clouds
Every time I come to this thread I see everyone talking about going long, on the most bearish pair. Go short, go on vacation, come back, profit!

I got away with a long today but only just, got a whole 9 pips worth!

Probably the worst trade I have done in a long time, just a complete lack of planning and extremely poor execution, so bad that I am lucky to have come out with anything at all!

I think I will start holding seminars in how not to trade, all are welcome!

Following the seminar I hope you will all join in on the ritualistic tradition of throwing our hard earned money into the great fire of hope and dance around wearing only our socks, chanting and giggling hysterically watching it burn and waiting for the promised millions to fall from the heavens...

Ah...I really need to start a cult!
  • #203,566
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:50pm Mar 4, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Ctic
Clouds,

You are right, It is a very bearish pair. But you are not realizing that things do not go straight one direction. My entry on my long is 1.4860 which was the bottom wall of the bear flag. With my sl in place I can not lose on this long position at all. At the very least I will make 80 pips. I realize this is a retracement. You have to remember many people in the forums are not long term traders like you and hold the postiion for months or years, from what I have noticed. And you should agree that it can go up 400 pips before it drops...
I would think 5150 is high, and a range could take place for several days, but I would really doubt going any higher. It might range 4-7 days, then spike up a little bit, then fall. Like last month from the 8th - 15th.
  • #203,567
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:57pm Mar 4, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting Clouds
I would think 5150 is high, and a range could take place for several days, but I would really doubt going any higher. It might range 4-7 days, then spike up a little bit, then fall. Like last month from the 8th - 15th.
Agreed, could range and could spike but don't forget we have NFP coming too...anything can happen. If you notice that even back in 2008 when it dropped like a rock in the ocean each monthly candle retraced back into the previous month (most being a 50% retrace). That is one reason why I think it will retrace back in. In addition, we hit a major support line (bottom of bear flag) 161.8 fib for quarterly candle etc. In all my years of trading I have never seen a pair blow through a major support/resistance line without at least some form of a retrace before.

Bottom line:

Bearish....definately yes.
Retrace...Yes
Target 1.65 -1.68 no
Target 1.54 - 1.56 possible.

That would still give much lower highs and then drop to a much lower low.
  • #203,568
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:02pm Mar 4, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting Ctic
Agreed, could range and could spike but don't forget we have NFP coming too...anything can happen. If you notice that even back in 2008 when it dropped like a rock in the ocean each monthly candle retraced back into the previous month (most being a 50% retrace). That is one reason why I think it will retrace back in. In addition, we hit a major support line (bottom of bear flag) 161.8 fib for quarterly candle etc. In all my years of trading I have never seen a pair blow through a major support/resistance line without at least some form of a retrace...
At any point in a down trend there "could" be a retrace, but you have figure out the chances for one. Since there's 5150 resistance now, I would be looking for a sell of that, or a sell below support. I wouldn't be looking to get on the other side of the trend.
  • #203,569
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:10pm Mar 4, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting Clouds
At any point in a down trend there "could" be a retrace, but you have figure out the chances for one. Since there's 5150 resistance now, I would be looking for a sell of that, or a sell below support. I wouldn't be looking to get on the other side of the trend.
I would agree. I would not want to buy at the 5150 unless it broke and closed above that point. Even then, there is about 20 other resistance points that it would have to break in order to define an uptrend. At the point I went long @ 4860, that was the support line for the continued downtrend. I maintained a very tight sl on that trade, with continued adjustments moving that sl upwards to protect profits. Currently my sl is below yesterday's swing low so I can not lose in this trade. In addition, I may close early before NFP is I don't feel right about the trade.

I have a very bearish view of this pair like you, in fact I did very well with the shorts in the months prior to this. I lost on one long at the end of the month but nowhere near what I made with the shorts.
  • #203,570
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:11pm Mar 4, 2010 2:11pm
Another note, I favor a break of support, since i picked up new positions in some commodity pairs recently, so I really don't see much upside to GBP at the moment.
  • #203,571
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:13pm Mar 4, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting Clouds
At any point in a down trend there "could" be a retrace, but you have figure out the chances for one. Since there's 5150 resistance now, I would be looking for a sell of that, or a sell below support. I wouldn't be looking to get on the other side of the trend.
And, that is why I like using fibonacci retracements and extensions. Those points are usually are safe entry points to catch on with minimal risk. For example, once it hits 161.8 fib line, the chance it retraces up to the 138.2 or 100 or higher is better than it moving to the 261 fib line. SL would be place under that point thus you have minimal risk to maximum return.
  • #203,572
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:16pm Mar 4, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Ctic
And, that is why I like using fibonacci retracements and extensions. Those points are usually are safe entry points to catch on with minimal risk. For example, once it hits 161.8 fib line, the chance it retraces up to the 138.2 or 100 or higher is better than it moving to the 261 fib line. SL would be place under that point thus you have minimal risk to maximum return.
Well, if u do choose to go against the trend, I would move SL up as it went in your favor to lock in profit, and not look for the max. return. Shorts u can be more greedy.
  • #203,573
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:17pm Mar 4, 2010 2:17pm
We have a bullish retrace at the 1.28 & 0.786 with a hammer. So as long as 1.5 holds i will be long
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  • #203,574
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:17pm Mar 4, 2010 2:17pm
Ctic I must admit that you are one of the few that I follow with interest and I can see the experience behind what you say!
I personally think that since we've broken the 1.57 support the long term is heading towards 1.40. When? probably before the summer.
If your expectations are right that would be a great opportunity to place some long term shorts.
In the short term, NFP could be worst than expected due to the bad weather usually affecting employments and the real estate not "outperforming". So you might be right...
time will tell

regards,
zz
Jacko's turtle
  • #203,575
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:19pm Mar 4, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting Clouds
Well, if u do choose to go against the trend, I would move SL up as it went in your favor to lock in profit, and not look for the max. return. Shorts u can be more greedy.
Agreed...And if you noticed my post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=203579

I keep moving my sl up to below the previous day's swing low to lock in profits. As long as it keeps moving up, the sl will be moved up. Once you got em green why make it red. I agree you can definately be more greedy with the shorts than the longs.
  • #203,576
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:27pm Mar 4, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting zumzum
Ctic I must admit that you are one of the few that I follow with interest and I can see the experience behind what you say!
I personally think that since we've broken the 1.57 support the long term is heading towards 1.40. When? probably before the summer.
If your expectations are right that would be a great opportunity to place some long term shorts.
In the short term, NFP could be worst than expected due to the bad weather usually affecting employments and the real estate not "outperforming". So you might be right...
time will tell

regards,
zz...
ZZ,

Thank you for the compliment. I am just a trader like everyone else trying to make a buck. The reason I say the 1.54 - 1.56 is that we are below the major spot you mentioned, and it seems we always go back to test major spots before we continue. Time will tell. I wish everyone in the forum would be profitable becase the money we are taking is the big boys money, not each other. As for 1.40...I think it will go much lower than that. The when? Well like you said it is anyone's guess but I think before summer is probably accurate. I am looking for the short entry. I may even hedge the position if we continue up, before the drop.

C.
  • #203,577
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:31pm Mar 4, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting Ctic
ZZ,

Thank you for the compliment. I am just a trader like everyone else trying to make a buck. The reason I say the 1.54 - 1.56 is that we are below the major spot you mentioned, and it seems we always go back to test major spots before we continue. Time will tell. I wish everyone in the forum would be profitable becase the money we are taking is the big boys money, not each other. As for 1.40...I think it will go much lower than that. The when? Well like you said it is anyone's guess but I think before summer is probably accurate. I am looking...
I think parity
  • #203,578
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting Clouds
I think parity
If that happens I will kiss you because I will be millionaire!
Jacko's turtle
  • #203,579
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:39pm Mar 4, 2010 2:39pm
i will go short after 1.54 and go on vacation then
  • #203,580
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:39pm Mar 4, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting zumzum
If that happens I will kiss you because I will be millionaire!
Clouds,

That is about the same level I was thinking, I have a 1.05 level in mind.
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