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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #203,401
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:56am Mar 4, 2010 2:56am
Quoting wormboy
Better lock your positions as much as you can instead of holding em as much as you can bt. It'll whipsaw like crazy later and could drop 100+ pips in a split second before going the other way ..

bro thats why i dont keep my son out he have to be home befor any news hit n run
  • #203,402
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:57am Mar 4, 2010 2:57am
Quoting antic81
Probably the wisest thing to do...unfortunately I have been rather unwise, and am long and not in profit at the moment, my thoughts are, if I get into profit before the BOE release, I'll take it and run for the hills, if not, I will take my chances...again my stop is only a risk of about 4% of my account, even though its about 80 points away my lot size is its usual 2 micros...
okay .. don't forget about the ecb rates, that'll cause some mayhem too because they're both timed for release so close to one another.
Good luck ant!
Thank You
  • #203,403
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:59am Mar 4, 2010 2:59am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
can't argue on that one...

Unless I have 300 pips of profit I would take whatever and run....

Quoting kill56
trading the news is too risky unless u know what u are doing safe than sorry is the way to go
  • #203,404
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:00am Mar 4, 2010 3:00am
Quoting wormboy
Better lock your positions as much as you can instead of holding em as much as you can bt. It'll whipsaw like crazy later and could drop 100+ pips in a split second before going the other way ..
Thanks for the advice.
I totally agree with you.
but these days the market volatility is very high. yes we can see 100 pip up or 100 pip down in just minutes.
but medium to long term I see it will go up.
God bless me.
  • #203,405
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:00am Mar 4, 2010 3:00am
Quoting ams
you have become a saint man...
God I need patience like you. I am still waiting for damn 151500
not saint ams. sane! lol
I've lost money in the past trying to guess & trade these news. Not gonna do it again unless I am already sitting on some nice profit I do not mind losing.
Thank You
  • #203,406
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:02am Mar 4, 2010 3:02am
Quoting kill56
bro thats why i dont keep my son out he have to be home befor any news hit n run
lol
Thank You
  • #203,407
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:05am Mar 4, 2010 3:05am
room i know he is busy but he might come any time
Attached Image
  • #203,408
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:05am Mar 4, 2010 3:05am
Quoting Baby-Trader
I will hold my positions as much as I can.
I see the way to 1.5820 but not in straight line for sure.
Hi BT; I see GU as struggling to put in an Hrly 'divergence' to finish of its current Bull run; and will probably have to be "propped up" by the 1m 200ema till it's achieved around 15131...then I reakon the Bears come out "growling" till 1.4780ish which will complete a 4Hr "divergence" base which will put in a strong Daily bottom to launch from; and then the Bulls can have their day in the sun till we see if this is the end of the Monthly run down or if it's coming back for more later. So, if I were long right now; I'd be really watching 15131....my 2 pips worth guys...
  • #203,409
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:07am Mar 4, 2010 3:07am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
This what makes you a sane/ good trader.
Me on the other hand might put a small @ 51500 to see the fun side of the market.

Good luck to us shorties for newstime...

ta
ams



Quoting wormboy
not saint ams. sane! lol
I've lost money in the past trying to guess & trade these news. Not gonna do it again unless I am already sitting on some nice profit I do not mind losing.
  • #203,410
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:09am Mar 4, 2010 3:09am
Quoting ams
you are a brave man buddy...
I'll chicken out @ 51500 or before if it's not reached before news..
I read your post here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5110

I shorted this pair @1.6640 , EU @1.5134 and @1.5078 and longed USDCHF @1.000

and closed all these positions for total 320 pips.
Imagine if I still hold these positions.

now I'm looking for the day when I can say WOW I'm holding a position from 1.49 dreaming.
  • #203,411
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:11am Mar 4, 2010 3:11am
Much like yesterday after the pullback cable this morning has found support athe intersection of the opposite topside of a breeched decsending trend line, with an ascending trend line (circled..) ...this morning also added to the mix was the 38.2% 4852-5131. Yesterday's example saw 2 x bullish pinbars develop on 1hr, this mornings was a bullish engulfing candle on same 1hr t/f although nice bullish divergence set-ups on 1min/5min with a 5min pinbar..

G/L

http://i48.tinypic.com/2s7vx34.jpg
ex member
  • #203,412
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:16am Mar 4, 2010 3:16am
home sweet home i love this thread ppl keep coming back no place like home
  • #203,413
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:19am Mar 4, 2010 3:19am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Yup mate, we are everyday traders. it's a passion keeps us alive....
Imagine if you had those trades and me had my short from 1.666..wow!!


Quoting Baby-Trader
I read your post here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5110

I shorted this pair @1.6640 , EU @1.5134 and @1.5078 and longed USDCHF @1.000

and closed all these positions for total 320 pips.
Imagine if I still hold these positions.

now I'm looking for the day when I can say WOW I'm holding a position from 1.49 dreaming.
  • #203,414
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:21am Mar 4, 2010 3:21am
Quoting Baby-Trader
Thanks for the advice.
I totally agree with you.
but these days the market volatility is very high. yes we can see 100 pip up or 100 pip down in just minutes.
but medium to long term I see it will go up.
God bless me.
you're welcome.
long term it's still bearish & this upmove is still just a retracement for me.
The same chart I've posted before, you'll see all the drop from January 19th retraced dead on to 50% before continuing to move south. Current retracement is yet to test the 50% which is priced @5175 & the ltl is still intact. In my view this retracement is still in progress unless one of the 2 levels is taken out - break & close above 50%, then there's likely continuation to 5380 level. Break & close below the ltl, then cable will spiral real fast.
Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guh4.JPG Size: 74 KB
Thank You
  • #203,415
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:25am Mar 4, 2010 3:25am
Quoting kill56
room i know he is busy but he might come any time

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/875/bear2df.jpg
  • #203,416
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:35am Mar 4, 2010 3:35am
Not from any candle formation.... for the light
has been extinguished by three individuals here
whose presence continually offends the spirit...
and my spirit and any who are sensitive to it.

It has caused others to leave...for it brings the
worst out in a person and others recognized this.

I won't return until the darkness leaves.

Dr. D.
  • #203,417
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:37am Mar 4, 2010 3:37am
BOE Rate News will witness a spike, try to avoid it if possible, but if you must trade then use the smallest possible lot size
  • #203,418
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:39am Mar 4, 2010 3:39am
lets see if these lines hold after the BOE 20m to go
  • #203,419
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:40am Mar 4, 2010 3:40am
darn the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 cable.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #203,420
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:47am Mar 4, 2010 3:47am
Quoting wormboy
you're welcome.
long term it's still bearish & this upmove is still just a retracement for me.
The same chart I've posted before, you'll see all the drop from January 19th retraced dead on to 50% before continuing to move south. Current retracement is yet to test the 50% which is priced @5175 & the ltl is still intact. In my view this retracement is still in progress unless one of the 2 levels is taken out - break & close above 50%, then there's likely continuation to 5380 level. Break & close below the ltl, then cable will spiral real fast.
Time...
I believe price will go down and test the 1.4850-1.4900 area to clear out the rest of the Bears and then start it's move up. We've had a Tom Demark (supply) trendline break on the daily chart to the upside at the 61% retracement level of the move up from Jan. 09 to Aug 09.

I also believe the long term trend is down but this is probably going to be a pretty large retracement. Close to 1000 pips or so in my opinion. So I think we're gonna head lower first but once we reach the 4850-4900 level then I think we will see a nice medium term up move to about the 1.5600-5800 levels. Maybe higher.
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