Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Hi Kill,
I see it is not crazy market.
Charts Are Speaking.
Weekly view.

give ur anaylsis about UJ please thanks

Updated

which position you are holding now?

Hi BT,
Good chart. Tho the ltl needs to be redrawn imho for the wedge to be valid.
I agree according to ta there'sa higher chance of upmove from here on tho I am not so sure the word "should" is a wise one lol. There are no absolutes in this business my friend, just educated guesses.
Anyway, I did put this chart up last august when half the world I know off were shooting for 8000 level on cable when some of us were aiming for 5300 level:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2633

Chart below is where we are now. Pretty close to being absolute

Hi rez how are you

I will wait too if not for the glaring support I see going off on my charts.
Here's my monthly gbplfx posted a few months ago:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3657

Attached below is the same chart, current. Now, I know this month hadn't closed yet, but it's probably no coincidence the low on H4 cable last week closed an inside bar, the daily closed a hammer & the monthly gbplfx bounced off the major ltl to the pip.
I like the odds here to long regardless of the major trend. Excellent risk reward, because if say for example the ltl on the gbplfx fails, cable will undoubtedly fall real deep that I honestly don't think it'll stop at 5000 level as so many are calling for. Else, there's a chance for a very large bounce from here on.
Time will tell. Take em as you see em.
Good luck

1.saxo opens,2. all openQUOTE=Tsar;3484248]Hi meromar,

20pm GMT it will be 5510 >> US Market Open
23pm GMT it will be 5410 >> LONDON Market Closed

It's CORRECT ?? [/quote]

Dollar Tempers its Gains Into the End of the Week, Traders Keep an Eye on Rates and Risk
Saturday, 20 February 2010 02:47 GMT | Written by John Kicklighter

 

1. Feb, 19 Dollar Jumps to Nine Month Highs after the Fed Unexpectedly Hikes the Discount Rate
2. Feb, 17 Dollar Suffers its Biggest Drop in Nearly Three Months as Risk Appetite Surges, but Will it Last?
3. Feb, 18 Dollar Recovers All of Tuesday’s Losses but not Through Risk Trends or a Hawkish FOMC Minutes
4. Feb, 04 US Dollar Enjoys a Sharp Bounce as Sentiment Dips and Service Activity Improves
5. Feb, 16 Dollar Inches Higher in Thin Liquidity as the Market’s Doubts and Focus Intensify on a Greek Bailout
6. Feb, 13 Dollar Rally Squashed Once Again as Chinese Rate Hike Fails to Overpower Greek Bailout Concerns
7. Feb, 12 Dollar Rallies on Vague European Bailout Plans, Stalls after Risk Appetite Resumes its Climb
8. Feb, 11 Dollar Stabilized by Tempered Risk Trends, Bolstered by Bernanke’s Hawkish Commentary
9. Feb, 10 Dollar Retreats as Rumor of Financial Aid for Greece Jump Starts Risk Appetite
10. Feb, 09 Dollar Advances for a Fourth Consecutive Session Despite a Tempered Pace of Risk Aversion
11. Feb, 06 Dollar Extends its Impressive Trend but not even NFPs could Maintain Thursday's Momentum
12. Feb, 05 Dollar and Yen Surge as Dow and Risk Appetite Collapse but what is Left for Friday's NFPs?
13. Feb, 03 US Dollar Eases for a Second Consecutive Day as a Light Docket Exposes Risk Trends
14. Feb, 02 US Dollar Stumbles as Risk Appetite Perks up, 2010 Budget Deficit Balloons
15. Jan, 29 US Dollar Gains Following Strongest US GDP in Seven Years, Japanese Yen Up as Equities Remain Under Pressure
16. Jan, 29 US Dollar Weathers Durable Goods, Activity Reports as 4Q GDP Reading Looms
17. Jan, 27 US Dollar, Japanese Yen Mostly Stronger Ahead of FOMC Decision - Key Comments to Watch For
18. Jan, 26 US Dollar Extends its Advance as Speculative Interests Unwind and Confidence Improves
19. Jan, 25 US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as Equities Bounce Despite Steep Drop in US Home Sales
20. Jan, 22 US Dollar Extends its Rally as Sentiment Threatens a True Collapse

• Euro: PMI Data Keeps the Focus off Greece and On Growth
• British Pound Takes a Final Hit from the Economic Docket to End the Week
• Canadian Dollar Slowly Builds Strength as Retail Sales Data Adds to a Solid Fundamental Outlook
• Australian Dollar: How Much Influence does the Global Economy’s Health have on the RBA’s Decisions?


Dollar Tempers its Gains Into the End of the Week, Traders Keep an Eye on Rates and Risk
There are two primary, fundamental drivers for the US dollar: risk appetite and interest rate forecasts. And, under most circumstances, sentiment carries the most weight as the systemic flows of capital highlight the currency’s safe haven qualities as well as the greenback’s role as a source of funding for a leveraged carry interest. However, for much of the past week, we have seen risk trends settle and traders take a closer look at the fundamental appeal of the dollar. With a backdrop of growing trouble in the Euro Zone (until recently, the primary substitute to the US for global investors) and more realistic forecasts for growth/returns; the dollar’s appeal is certainly improved beyond a mere demand for short-term liquidity. Given this setup, the Federal Reserve’s move to hike the discount rate yesterday after the market close posed the perfect driver for the dollar. This move – while not carry the same influence as a hike to the Fed Funds rate – moved up the time table for policy tightening, improved the fiscal health of the policy authority and threatened to unnerve investors as easy money was drawn out of the market. The immediate reaction played out exactly as expected: with a dollar rally leading a general deterioration in risk appetite. However, the full scope of this announcement’s impact couldn’t be assessed until all of the markets were able to respond. By the time US liquidity was topped off, the dollar’s strength was fading. The fundamental appeal of the currency itself wasn’t receding; but the revived link to underlying sentiment trends doomed the greenback’s breakout as fear never truly developed from this milestone event.

Has the dollar’s late-session pullback doomed its push to a fresh eight-month high? Unlikely. From a technical perspective, a hurdled has been cleared and the greenback has pushed through critical resistance among important pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF). The outlook for interest rates and fiscal health has improved markedly. Now what is needed is a meaningful revival of risk trends – specifically risk aversion. The capital markets have climbed steadily over the past two weeks despite burgeoning troubles for financial stability, speculative inflows and stable economic growth. Any number of catalysts can force a reversal; but there are two threats that standout above the rest. The most pervasive risk comes from Greece and the European Union. If the member economy’s debt troubles be deemed insurmountable; it could ignite a localized financial crisis. Another interesting development to monitor is the Chinese open Monday morning. This market has been closed this past week for the Lunar New Year. Therefore, that speculative crowd has not be able to respond to the developments of the past week – including the PBoC’s decision to increase the reserve ratio after last Friday’s close. As for data, next week’s scheduled event risk likely doesn’t have the influence today’s CPI numbers had. The pullback in the annual headline reading (to 2.6 percent) and the core measure (to 1.6 percent) temper the hawkish implications of the discount rate hike. Of particular interest will be the testimony to the House on government spending from Treasury Secretary Geithner and monetary policy from Fed Chairman Bernanke scheduled for Wednesday.


Euro: PMI Data Keeps the Focus off Greece and On Growth
The euro marked a relatively strong performance Friday; but it is difficult to separate the influence of event risk from the tumble for the US dollar in this move. As the primary reserve alterative to the dollar, the greenback retracement bestowed considerable benefit on the euro. Nevertheless, there was notable data to ingest. The advance measures of the February manufacturing and service PMI readings provide a good update on first quarter growth. However, in this data, there was a sense of moderation. While the Euro Zone factory activity report advanced for a 12th consecutive month to a two-and-a-half year high, the service sector reading contracted for a second month in a row. This may be a manifestation of policy officials’ warning that growth would slow in 2010. Looking ahead to next week, the situation with Greece is still the top concern. Despite the market’s disregard for the economy’s troubles, the circumstances have actually deteriorated through the week.


British Pound Takes a Final Hit from the Economic Docket to End the Week
At the end of a week full of discouraging data, the pound would end with yet another discouraging indicator. The retail sales report for the United Kingdom has historically shown limited influence on price action due to its month-to-month volatility. Nonetheless, the 1.2 percent drop in receipts was a surprise as the first slip in five months and the sharpest decline in 11. From a fundamental perspective, this data reflects the spending habits of the consumer sector – the largest component of overall GDP. So, to take a tally of the data this week: unemployment has hit a multi-year high; the central bank has said it will ignore high inflation; and the consumer is not stepping up their support of a recovery that is losing its government backing piece by piece. Next week, the focus is on confidence figures and the details of the 4Q GDP revision.


Canadian Dollar Slowly Builds Strength as Retail Sales Data Adds to a Solid Fundamental Outlook
There is often little said about the Canadian dollar. Most of the time, the focus is on risk appetite trends or big-ticket indicators that could potentially tip a wavering economy into growth or a slump. However, support for the loonie has steadily improved over the weeks and months; and price action is reflecting this trend. Adding to the steady rise in inflation and influx of capital reported yesterday; the calendar posted its eighth consecutive advance in the leading indicators index and a commendable 0.4 percent jump in retail sales. Slow and steady…


Australian Dollar: How Much Influence does the Global Economy’s Health have on the RBA’s Decisions?
The initial shock of the RBA’s decision to hold its benchmark lending rate unchanged on February 1st is wearing off. Following up on the strong round of data (including the jump in employment) and hawkish rhetoric from the central bank’s quarterly policy statement, Governor Stevens spoke to the House early Friday morning. In his commentary, the central banker suggested that rates were still 50-100 bps below “normal.”


Link : http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...ains_Into.html

Alright kiddies, since we have a lot of great charts being posted with clear reason and possibilities, I figured, hey, what the hell, maybe I should throw my hat into the ring as well....

In keeping with the up and downs of the market, I will go from 15m to 5m to 4hr to daily...see if this looks the same to anybody else.

Currently on the 15m chart we see resistance at the 200EMA, 1.55145. So, if we were open trading throughout the weekend, that would be a hard target to look for, somewhere in that area. Depending on momentum, crushing through that would lead us on to higher time frame resistance, BUT, this is the weekend so as we all know, anything can happen. This is what I call the zig.

Second chart, the 5m. The zag. Again, if we were in normal play, and found resistance at current, and started a pullback, the area I would be looking for support on is the 200EMA on the 5m, current price, 1.54418. If we crushed through that, we would be looking for a new bottom of the chart.

That is what we typically see in the zig zag patterns on the chart. We play support to resistance and resistance to support, from time frame to time frame depending on the current trend, for the bulls, for the bears.

NEXT!

The H4, a little more clear look at the cover trade zone. That massive spike down created the new area to cover. Longs to cover shorts inside of this zone, and shorts load up for the next downside move. But are we really going here already? I mean we haven't really created that deep of an area to be covered yet...what am I on about? Let's look at the daily.

1.58492-1.55328 approx 316 pips. Drop before cover on daily, red circles.
1.55328-1.53430 approx 190 pips. Drop complete? green circles on daily.

Above and with the 4rth chart, is the areas we have played before covering back filling the chart. The zag before the next zig. The second zig has the massive 4hr candle which in itself as about 225 pips, but yet we only reached a 190 lower on the chart before a retrace.....

>>scratches head<<

A pretty convincing down move to be sure, but what gains were really made in the world of the bears?

With a pin bar on the daily from Fridays trade, and a fairly convincing climb out of the gutter, have we started to take on a bit of a bull move? Or are the bears suckering the bulls into thinking this is the real bottom so that they can be Spiked down and wiped out in the next 2 days?

Hrmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

At the end of all of this, I think I am pretty clearly stating that we will either go up or could go down. Heh, and you thought I was digging for deep insights? Don't you know me better than this yet?

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's foreign-exchange regulator said fund inflows are likely to grow this year as interest in yuan-denominated assets increases, in remarks that indicate Beijing's rising concerns about capital inflows.
"Central bank interest rates in the U.S., Europe, the U.K., etc., are all close to zero and cross-border arbitrage transactions are prevalent," said State Administration of Foreign Exchange director Yi Gang in an interview with Foreign Exchange, a twice-monthly magazine backed by SAFE itself.
Expectations that the yuan will rise, higher interest rates in China than abroad, and domestic asset prices may drive the increase in inflows, said Yi, whose remarks were posted on SAFE's Web site Sunday.

In a little more seriousness...

The areas of immediate critical importance are on the m15/m5 charts.

Movement I don't expect to be spectacular, but hey, thats what I thought before we dropped 250 pips on Thursday...So

If we gap up, we have support on the 5m chart for retrace to sustain a bullish movement.

If we gap down, the 5m support could become the resistance line, and would could see another retrace to bottom if not a new bottom created.

Direction for the week will most likely not be set until London open, but there are still a few bucks that could be made.

Im with ya on this one, Bro. Posted is where I think she will come.

Jim

Hey,
You asked me about my view on UJ.

Here you are.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post3484485

But Trade your charts.

Good Luck

Dear Magix,
From your charts, I only see M5 pointing down towards 200ema and
the rest pointing up will test 200ema. Is that mean in longer time bull will be
In action? Thanks for your details view.

hey magic


Alright kiddies, since we have a lot of great charts being posted with clear reason and possibilities, I figured, hey, what the hell, maybe I should throw my hat into the ring as well....

dammm bro i thought u u will throw a T BONE OR $1000 OR some sweets some nice win hell not a dam chart
i hope u will have a nice week greeny one

room how many short and how many long

Targets have been hit

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post3484562

Looking at the major resistance line which then turned into a major support line, my guess is it's going to go up for atleast a retrace.
We can see in underline "1" it broke the support but retraced no problem, in underline 2 it broke support again but retraced very quickly.
I am targeting a retrace to about 1.5520, however we could see a tail as low as 1.5400

NEITHER

I would like to say ADIOS AMIGOS for the BEAR

Get ready to take off for 1.8050. time frame? 2010 - 2011

Please record my statement

it is 21 February 2010 current price 1.5464

(FF forum page 13396)