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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #200,541
  • Feb 18, 2010 12:38pm Feb 18, 2010 12:38pm
probable start of the uptrend to 1.5900
SCARED MONEY NEVER DOES GOOD IN FOREX
  • #200,542
  • Feb 18, 2010 1:18pm Feb 18, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting omiunu
probable start of the uptrend to 1.5900
we could see 1.5425 by tommorow, don't think it's going up
  • #200,543
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:15pm Feb 18, 2010 2:15pm
Demo trading ain't useful....
Better use a micro account...just put 50-100 bucks on it and trade it
The feeling, the stress , the tp , the sl are not the same on demo and real
Do a real as soon as possible with few bucks
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #200,544
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:16pm Feb 18, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting omiunu
probable start of the uptrend to 1.5900
I think this is a wave 3 to finish the down move to 155 154 area then we hit the bottom
  • #200,545
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:18pm Feb 18, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting Allseeingeye
I think this is a wave 3 to finish the down move to 155 154 area then we hit the bottom
i see double bottom on m30.
  • #200,546
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:22pm Feb 18, 2010 2:22pm
I really worry when I see people trading with real money, even 10 cent per point. Really risk control is the main key of trading. I use to regularly take $200 accounts to $2000 in a week, get over confidant and go back to $60.

Finally, it clicked and I realised why its so much easier with small money or a demo. Find a strategy, learn to trade it well on demo, cut your teeth on it, blow it up, test it. Now, once you can do it, go live with a micro account, max $100 in the account. Your max loss is capped, even if you go crazy which 90% certainty you will.

After success, comes over confidence, you WILL over trade and when it goes against you, you won't close. I know this because thats why I use to blow my accounts, we are all pretty much the same.

Now, when I have a good couple of days, and I start to take a few losses, I halve my risk per point. The reason for this is that the market moves in cycles, power, range, power, range. If you are a power trader (TREND) then you make money trading breakouts and catching the trend. But all trends collapse into ranges, so then you lose, just after it was going so well. The opposite for the range traders. Unless you know what sort of a day its going to be, you will lose half of the time. If you are smart, then you will realise that after a good period trading, things will change, a smart trader will anticipate the change in the market, and adjust risk to lose less in the bad times.

No matter how you trade ranging days and trend days can be to a certain extent anticipated. Learn how to do that and you can adapt to the market, and make money both ways.

I wrote an article on how to reduce your losses, in trading, you can apply it to any system. To get a copy go to haranfx its free.


I wish you all lots of luck

Mike
  • #200,547
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:42pm Feb 18, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting bonus76
i see double bottom on m30.

double bottom mean what sir?...kindly help newbie here...
Revesal Trader
  • #200,548
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:44pm Feb 18, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting fxsignal
I really worry when I see people trading with real money, even 10 cent per point. Really risk control is the main key of trading. I use to regularly take $200 accounts to $2000 in a week, get over confidant and go back to $60.

Finally, it clicked and I realised why its so much easier with small money or a demo. Find a strategy, learn to trade it well on demo, cut your teeth on it, blow it up, test it. Now, once you can do it, go live with a micro account, max $100 in the account. Your max loss is capped, even if you go crazy which 90% certainty...

Mike,

I agree with most of what you say and disagree on few points. To add to what you said, Finding a good system is always important. After years of trading, I have found my system seems to work for me 85% of the time (give or take a little). But Even the best system will fail without the following 2 principles.

1. Money management
2. Consistancy

Try to be consistant with the trades. If you trade 1 contract, trade 1 contract. Don't bounce from 1, to .2, to 4, to .5. etc. (One exception applies here in my opinion).

The exception is lets say the balance of your account allows you to trade 2 contracts (max) and still have a comfortable margin (thus showing proper money management). Lets say you see a good setup on 5 different countries. Instead of trading your normal 2 contracts to be consistant, make 5 (.4) contracts. This may seem inconsistant, but still have to be within smart money management principles. Just my opinion.

Very good post and I hope to see you in this forum more.
C.
  • #200,549
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:47pm Feb 18, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting fxsignal
I really worry when I see people trading with real money, even 10 cent per point. Really risk control is the main key of trading. I use to regularly take $200 accounts to $2000 in a week, get over confidant and go back to $60.

Finally, it clicked and I realised why its so much easier with small money or a demo. Find a strategy, learn to trade it well on demo, cut your teeth on it, blow it up, test it. Now, once you can do it, go live with a micro account, max $100 in the account. Your max loss is capped, even if you go crazy which 90% certainty...
Good sound advise and reminder to all.

Welcome. Don't be a stranger.

From a previous post you wrote:

Using the planets is not quite as weird as everyone makes out. It is a very accurate timming tool, but not always. The trick is to estimate the price levels and look for the timing cycle.

I'll PM you with a question but do keep us aprised of planetary conditions.
We are battling the intragalactic events and affects on the market but if
your studies go beyond (inter) also let us know. I'd like to jump aboard.

Dr. D.
  • #200,550
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:48pm Feb 18, 2010 2:48pm
Trapped in the support/resistance range of the time frames...

We currently hold support of the 5m chart, but not confirmed long. We sit on the 50% fib line for the day, and right at support on the 15m. The 30m says we have support, but too again, not confirmed.

This is a good time to do nothing. No trades, No speculation.

At least, thats how I'm going to play it. Sometimes the best trade, is the veto trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #200,551
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:50pm Feb 18, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting Magix
Trapped in the support/resistance range of the time frames...

We currently hold support of the 5m chart, but not confirmed long. We sit on the 50% fib line for the day, and right at support on the 15m. The 30m says we have support, but too again, not confirmed.

This is a good time to do nothing. No trades, No speculation.

At least, thats how I'm going to play it. Sometimes the best trade, is the veto trade.

Magix,

I am with you on your assessment. My postions are flat ATM as well.

C.
  • #200,552
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:51pm Feb 18, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Ctic
Mike,

I agree with some of what you say and disagree with other points. Finding a good system is always important. After years of trading, I have found my system seems to work for me 85% of the time (give or take a little). But Even the best system will fail without the following 2 principles.

1. Money management
2. Consistancy

Try to be consistant with the trades. If you trade 1 contract, trade 1 contract. Don't bounce from 1, to .2, to 4, to .5. etc. (One exception applies here in my opinion).

The exception is lets say the balance of...

Completely agree...
Especially on the second part (Consistancy)
You can't keep trading with 1 lot when you have enough margin

And of course the MM is important
I should really pay attention to it....one day my overconfidence in some trades will kill me
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #200,553
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:51pm Feb 18, 2010 2:51pm
Thought to share something i read it

“Being aware of uncertainty and understanding the nature of probabilities does not equate with an ability to actually function effectively from a probabilistic perspective. Thinking in probabilities can be difficult to master, because our minds don’t naturally process information in this manner. Quite the contrary, our minds cause us to perceive what we know, and what we know is part of our past, whereas, in the market, every moment is new and unique, even though there may be similarities to something that occurred in the past. “This means that unless we train our minds to perceive the uniqueness of each moment, that uniqueness will automatically be filtered out of our perception.”
By Mark Douglas
  • #200,554
  • Feb 18, 2010 2:59pm Feb 18, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting egkid
Thought to share something i read it

“Being aware of uncertainty and understanding the nature of probabilities does not...
I love that book. Just finished reading it and i think is amazing. i want to try hypnosis is some areas of my character
  • #200,555
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:07pm Feb 18, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting wormboy
Btw, I thought it was the m5 200ema, didn't realise you use the m15.
Okay have a good one!
Support to resistance looks like this to me, and I hope to not make this too confusing.

Basics.
If 24sma (red) is below 200ema (yellow) we are short.
If 24sma (red) is above 200ema (yellow) we are long.

When we are short chart, if price closes candle below 24sma, sell.
When we are long chart, if price closes candle above 24sma, buy.

That part is easy, where it gets complicated is figuring out where we are going to go.

Having a look at this mornings spike on the charts and then retrace back to bottom it would go something like this...When we spiked up, and the 1m doesn't show this far back, the 24sma had confirmed long signal. When I see confirmation on the 1m I look for resistance on the 5m, and then confirmation of the long on the 5m, (24sma above 200ema) and played through to resistance on the 15m chart. From there, onto 30m, 1hr, 4 hr.

If we would have confirmed long trend, then taking plays off of the 1m would have been to longside. What happened is that we never confirmed long chart 5m. Price dropped below the 24SMA, so, we continued on with the major and fell back to the only area of support which is a price point.

On the chart I have posted, hopefully you will see what I am saying..

Top left(30m)...price hit 55ema (white dotted), and since we never gained support on the 5m, expectation to move on is possible, unless we lose the support of the 24SMA, which is what happened.

Top right(15m)....again, we topped at/near 200ema (yellow line), fell back to support, (cannot see, but was the 200ema on 5m chart), it was at this point that we were both looking at the classical bull flag. On retrace, we lost support of the 24SMA (bottom left chart) and confirmed the major trend to price point support.

So, when I play, these are the words that I see and say.

We are long on the 1m, not confirmed on the 5m. Confirmed sell if price loses support of the 24sma, hold for long until confirmation of 24SMA crosses above the 200ema on 5m chart and take trigger on trend from the 1m chart.

We can be long on the 15m, not confirmed on the 30, will play the same, if we lose support, then we play short, if we gain support will play long.

If your eyes are crossed by the time you have read this, I understand as mine were crossed just writing it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #200,556
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:17pm Feb 18, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting Ctic
Magix,

I am with you on your assessment. My positions are flat ATM as well.

C.
Scalping singles right now doesn't even seem that appealing...not enough volume for anything serious and too easy to get trapped...

Eff this crap!

I can wait.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #200,557
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:18pm Feb 18, 2010 3:18pm
hi all
some thing new i am trying like to share with u

to me was short out @15770 long time ago now i dont see any trade but i will sell the ralies uder 15720 and buy on h1 above it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #200,558
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:32pm Feb 18, 2010 3:32pm
what the heck is that daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarn
  • #200,559
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:33pm Feb 18, 2010 3:33pm
Blinked and missed that one.

LOL....

Somebody really got it in for the bulls would seem.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #200,560
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:37pm Feb 18, 2010 3:37pm
any body knows what hapend
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CPUmice