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Chaos Trading System

  • #581
  • Feb 6, 2010 3:06pm Feb 6, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Wab
It is funny how often we look at charts and really don't see them. There are a few other BW fractal things that show up when you turn the process inside out.
Try a few charts and we can play with ways to use the T2T.

That sounds good. I do have a live chat site at my signature below with a BW trading room if you are interested in talking there too. Its free to join. I'm just looking for other successful BW traders to make some money with in the forex market and to help others that want to learn too.

Do you trade mainly 2hr time frames as well?
  • #582
  • Feb 7, 2010 11:39am Feb 7, 2010 11:39am
Mostly I prefer daily charts. Time frames have to match your life style and daily charts suit me best.

Recently I have been trying to apply the BW method to shorter time frames, trying to get trades that line up in 5, 15 and 30 minute charts. This is an attempt to avoid large draw downs.

"Thumbing" from the inside of a fractal is an attempt to enter earlier than that first fractal above the red alligator line. Sometimes the signal occurs at the same bar as the BW entry fractal. It can also occur on a bar which is in turn identified as a new fractal, two bars later.

Often a Thumb signal is a lot earlier than the BW fractal entry. Sometimes it too is above the Red Alligator Line.

Perhaps we can look at this together and determine some useful rules for it in its various locations.

I have my own thoughts but I don't want to bias any fresh thinking at this point. Nor do I want to hijack a Chaos Thread. If this isn't Chaos Related though I would be very surprised.
  • #583
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:40pm Feb 7, 2010 5:40pm
Hi Wab,

Can you give sample on trade in shorter time frame 5,15, 30 minutes line up ? . since I know 5 minute chart will show set up first compare to 15, 30 minutes.

Do you mean we wait for 30 minutes show set up and we go down to 5 minutes ?


Thanks,

Quoting Wab
Mostly I prefer daily charts. Time frames have to match your life style and daily charts suit me best....
  • #584
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:20am Feb 8, 2010 7:20am
Quoting Wab
Mostly I prefer daily charts. Time frames have to match your life style and daily charts suit me best....
Sounds good. Would you mind putting up a few charts as examples? It doesn't matter what time frames you choose. I would like to get very clear on the location of the bars you identify as a Thumb signal.

Thanks.
  • #585
  • Feb 11, 2010 1:51pm Feb 11, 2010 1:51pm
hi does any1 have an indicator to signal/mark the 1st wiseman signal? aka the divergent bar.
  • #586
  • Feb 12, 2010 4:25am Feb 12, 2010 4:25am
Hello there,

Long time no see ! Sorry about that... I was busy trading and we really had a very pretty start of the year ! (so far...)

Here's a nice situation on the Cable, check the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD 2010-02-12 (240 Min).jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #587
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:51am Feb 12, 2010 5:51am
Hi Starskovsky,

Great chart! I am trying to understand what your chart is saying. There is divergence. Do you expect an up move to the target 4 wave line on your chart? Thank you.

fxpilot
  • #588
  • Feb 12, 2010 6:17am Feb 12, 2010 6:17am
Quoting fxpilot
Hi Starskovsky,

Great chart! I am trying to understand what your chart is saying. There is divergence. Do you expect an up move to the target 4 wave line on your chart? Thank you.

fxpilot
Yes, exactly. I'm giving more details in the members area, check the link in my signature.
  • #589
  • Feb 12, 2010 6:36am Feb 12, 2010 6:36am
Quoting starskovsky
Yes, exactly. I'm giving more details in the members area, check the link in my signature.

Thank you.
  • #590
  • Feb 13, 2010 5:09pm Feb 13, 2010 5:09pm
Here is an another classic: This one a AUDUSD, M5.

By using what I call a thumb entry and confirming the direction with the AO color change you get in a whole lot earlier.

I added the wave count in the AO because it is such a nice one.

The draw down after entry from either the thumb or the fractal was only 4 pips, but the thumb gives you an extra 20 pips lead in the trade.

I attached BW Wise man and BW zone indicators, I found both on the net under those names. The Zone Trade is displayed on the chart.

http://www.elkvalleygold.com/Forex/F...n%20aususd.jpg
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BW ZoneTrade_2.4.mq4   7 KB | 631 downloads
File Type: mq4 BW-wiseMan-1.mq4   3 KB | 650 downloads
  • #591
  • Feb 14, 2010 12:52am Feb 14, 2010 12:52am
Hi guys, I have written a simple Bill Williams EA.

Will work on it some more next weekend. For now it has no externally configurable parameters.

It trades:
- Fractal breakouts
- AO cross with trend
- AC 2 bars with trend
- Cancels all stops once the price crosses the gator
- Trail stop with either:
* One of the alligator lines (default is Jaw)
* 5SMA stops (moves SL to the high or low of the 2 bars crossing 5SMA).

It only trades with stops/limits on each bar close so there is no issues about inconsistency or "repainting EA syndrome".

After watching it backtest over the last year or so on EURUSD H4 it is very apparent that this system does exactly what it is supposed to: keep your losers small until you can hit the big winners. Equity curve confirms this.

EA in action, late Dec 08 (visual mode backtest)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lg13.png Size: 22 KB


Backtests results 2008.11.18 - current EURUSD H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lg14.png Size: 7 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lg15.png Size: 9 KB


Backtest results 2003.02.24 - current EURUSD D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lg17.png Size: 12 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lg16.png Size: 9 KB


Just a preliminary - better versions to come.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ChaosEA.mq4   7 KB | 607 downloads
  • #592
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:00am Feb 14, 2010 6:00am
Hello Sinner-

Looks like a very good job you are doing there !!! I'm very interested and curious of the results ! If I can help, just let me know....

I already have some suggestions...
BWs' system is working on any market, because it is based on the very structure of the market.
But I noticed certain things.
1) Signals has to be taken in accordance of the Elliott waves principle.
This is not a big problem, because an EA can be turned on and off and can only take long or short....

2) I'm using BWs' to trade futures market and for some reasons it shows way more consistency than on Forex.
On FX, I think we might have to use certain types of signals only. Like only the fractals, the saucers...
One more time, this is not a big problem, because, on an EA, it is easy to turn on and off such and such signal and gathering some statistics...

I hope my input is a little bit helpful and let me know if you need some help, I'm always happy to participate to any kind of work on BWs' strategy !

Have a good day.
  • #593
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:12am Feb 14, 2010 6:12am
Quoting Wab
Here is an another classic:...
Hello Wab,

I like this entry ! Also, just before, we can see a nice double bottom with a very pretty divergence on AO. This really gives some clues that the previous down move is out of steam !
  • #594
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:45am Feb 14, 2010 6:45am
Quoting starskovsky
Hello Sinner-

Looks like a very good job you are doing there !!! I'm very interested and curious of the results ! If I can help, just let me know....

I already have some suggestions...
BWs' system is working on any market, because it is based on the very structure of the market.
But I noticed certain things.
1) Signals has to be taken in accordance of the Elliott waves principle.
This is not a big problem, because an EA can be turned on and off and can only take long or short....

2) I'm using BWs' to trade futures market and for some reasons...
Hey mate,

What I have noticed (and added code in the EA for) is that the BW signals (all of them) only seem to work when the Gator oscillator is showing a red bar for that trend.

If you are looking for short signal then it is only valid if the "below 0" half of the Gator osc is showing a red bar. If you are looking for long signal it is only valid if the "above 0" half of the gator osc is showing a red bar.

For example:

Two AC sell signals. One nets 90 pips, one is a dud. How can we know in advance? Gator oscillator shows a difference. For the first one the below 0 Gator is showing a red bar. For the second it shows a blue bar. We only take the signals (fractals, AC, AO, balance line whatever) if Gator shows a red bar for that trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 41 KB
  • #595
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:21am Feb 14, 2010 7:21am
Hey !

Oh ! I understand your entry and your filter. I personally don't use the AC nor the gator. But I'm interested. We will have to do stats on that.

As an example, on your chart, I like when the odds pile up together.
On the wave point of view, I assume that the retrace is a wave 2, so I'll look to go short, for the W3. Then (my red line) we have this fractal and it matched with the saucer sell on the AO. I like that kind of confluence....
See what I mean ?

Let's continue !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 133 KB
  • #596
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:24am Feb 14, 2010 7:24am
Quoting starskovsky
Hey !

See what I mean ?

Let's continue !
Yes, do you notice how for that signal (fractal+saucer) the Gator Osc shows a red bar in the "below 0" half?

I just used AC as an example, I use Gator red bar to confirm all my BW signals.
  • #597
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:38am Feb 14, 2010 7:38am
Quoting sinner-
Yes, do you notice how for that signal (fractal+saucer) the Gator Osc shows a red bar in the "below 0" half?

I just used AC as an example, I use Gator red bar to confirm all my BW signals.
hummm... At the moment the resting order would be triggered, I'm not sure the conditions matched with your rules....
  • #598
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:04am Feb 14, 2010 8:04am
Guys , i have just noticed you are talking about these EA .I bought for £23 the chaos trader EA from forex-experts.com.I have used it , i will start using it on demo account first and see how it performs.I have to be honest with you , i have since left my day Job , and i am doing reallly well in this forex business , just trading Bill Wiliams .4HR, 1HR and 15 MIN..I guess i am an expert now.
  • #599
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:08am Feb 14, 2010 8:08am
My success is mainly because , i only trade using AO, fractals and alligator , thats it .I sometimes use pivot points as well.
  • #600
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:27am Feb 14, 2010 8:27am
Quoting tafadzwa02
My success is mainly because , i only trade using AO, fractals and alligator , thats it .I sometimes use pivot points as well.
I totally agree with you !
Let us know how this EA is doing...
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