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  • #193,601
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:40am Feb 10, 2010 11:40am
Quoting Clouds
are you even looking at the charts? See monthly charts. Coin tosses don't work like that. If it did, this is what would happen...

Heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, tails, tails, tails ,tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, heads, heads, heads
The analogy of the market to a coin makes no sense. Also, there is such a thing as combined probability: sure, a coin toss may be 50/50, but the combined probability that it would come up on the same side three flips in a row is 12.5%.
  • #193,602
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:41am Feb 10, 2010 11:41am
Not sure how this pitchfork will work out, it's early days yet. Also the SMA might support and send the PA further up. We'll see. I don't believe that this is going to go up a hell of a lot further though, but I do expect more ranging until at least Friday. After all, there is sweet fa in the way of meaningful news coming as far as the calendar is concerned until possibly Friday, but also I don't see much in the way of good news coming out of the EU zone.

So we'll see, but I remain on the side of the bears for now.....

5c
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #193,603
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:41am Feb 10, 2010 11:41am
Quoting randy1953
really lets see if you flipped a coin all day and it came up heads 80% of the time you can conclude what? Ony that on the next flip it's still a 50-50 chance.
It is simple
randy
Let me ask you something. Do you play poker? Do you think that's skill or chance.
  • #193,604
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:42am Feb 10, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Nomi1
hello

i am holding short on euro at 3700 for last 2 days with tp of 3570. twice i got the opportunity to close in green but i peristed with the shorts. now can any tell me if i can be in gree again or it wil only go up. i still think it will go down but i can be biased as i am holding a short position just wanted ur views. thnaks.
weird... i was juz thinking. wat is ur stop? almost -100+
and ur still in e trade? ok if ur playing daily chart.. my stop about 10 to 50 pips depending on volatility n ccy pairs. to answer ur qns any break above 1.387/1.39 might be bad...
  • #193,605
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:43am Feb 10, 2010 11:43am
I cannot answer anymore as the wise person has spoken and spoken truly..
I will end with this.
If you think you have a edge then wonderful good for you.
What is your edge worth no more no less than 50%

Have a good day and best of the coin flips for everyone
Randy



Quoting PriceVolume
The analogy of the market to a coin makes no sense. Also, there is such a thing as combined probability: sure, a coin toss may be 50/50, but the combined probability that it would come up on the same side three flips in a row is 12.5%.
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,606
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:44am Feb 10, 2010 11:44am
Quoting Clouds
If there's a trend, like EU, and for past 2 months, it's had 8 bearish weeks, and 2 bullish weeks, you could conclude chances for bearish week is 80%.
But I do not use it.

Last time we had 7 week red candles, what happened next?
a move from 1.25 to 1.52.

Changes???

We are in danger area to trade, it will not be easy, that's why I am pausing to trade daily for awhile, bottom lines do not work all the time, but my lines are not a clean bottom TL.
If we see a Weekly chart zoomed from 1994 the TL it is right now around 1.3000 level, a inner TL will send PA to 1.2650 level, so there are lot of possibilities to trade.

This bottom line I have it is a symmetrical line, that usually gives some retrace pips. But Trading weekly it is not suitable for everyone and I know most here do not trade this TF.

Where is the Trend reversal level? And what TF to use, Daily, weekly or Monthly?

IMO until we break 1.2700 area we are in a bull trend. The area to watch careful for next months it will be 1.2900/1.2700 area, a cross of 1.2900 area Bulls are in danger a cross of 1.2700 it is the key level to short at will, we will go to seek the Parity or near for coming months if this level goes.
  • #193,607
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:48am Feb 10, 2010 11:48am
Quoting randy1953
I cannot answer anymore as the wise person has spoken and spoken truly..
I will end with this.
If you think you have a edge then wonderful good for you.
What is your edge worth no more no less than 50%

Have a good day and best of the coin flips for everyone
Randy
Maybe we should play poker, and I take all your money 10 times in row. Will you still believe next time you'll win?
  • #193,608
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:49am Feb 10, 2010 11:49am
I can talk about Poker and yes I play.
the 50-50 rule does not enter poker.
Why because you have a definite number of cards. When you have a definite number of anything(And you know exactly what that number is) then you can change the odds.
However let this not go into the Forex market again.
Maybe we should talk about cards at a card forum.
Happy trading
Randy


Quoting Clouds
Let me ask you something. Do you play poker? Do you think that's skill or chance.
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,609
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:51am Feb 10, 2010 11:51am
Quoting randy1953
I can talk about Poker and yes I play.
the 50-50 rule does not enter poker.
Why because you have a definite number of cards. When you have a definite number of anything then you can change the odds.
However let this not go into the Forex market again.
Maybe we should talk about cards at a card forum.
Happy trading
Randy
The 50-50 does not enter, because you can fold & raise. So can u in forex. Full house is good in cards, so are some hands better in forex.
  • #193,610
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:55am Feb 10, 2010 11:55am
[
no you have it wrong the 50-50 does not enter because you have 52 cards and you can change the odds when your count the cards.
Randy

quote=Clouds;3452111]The 50-50 does not enter, because you can fold & raise. So can u in forex. Full house is good in cards, so are some hands better in forex.[/quote]
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,611
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:56am Feb 10, 2010 11:56am
Quoting randy1953
What is your edge worth no more no less than 50%
Markets are NOT random!

And yes, TA and PA work because of that.

They work so well that you can discount the news completely - everything is their on the chart anyway.

Lots of very successful traders I know are pure technicians.
  • #193,612
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:58am Feb 10, 2010 11:58am
Quoting randy1953
[
no you have it wrong the 50-50 does not enter because you have 52 cards and you can change the odds when your count the cards.
Randy

quote=Clouds;3452111]The 50-50 does not enter, because you can fold & raise. So can u in forex. Full house is good in cards, so are some hands better in forex.
[/quote]

I play poker too (not real chips- just for fun), but I don't count cards and rather good at it. The top players have billions. Learn to play.
  • #193,613
  • Edited 8:28pm Feb 10, 2010 11:58am | Edited 8:28pm
... Been waiting and watching for you to uncork for some time now...

Quoting redsheriff
None of them speaks like that you do here in INTERNET only...

Typical 'MINIPIPPERS' codex - account holders of typical 'ONLINE BROKERS' do talk that way only...

Small accounting - big mouth there... Ha ! ! !

And what the hell you all was blabbering there around - Therfore I do not want to tell you soo much here .. Cause most of you talking really crap there ...

Some of you blabbering around - and nobody asked you to do such a thing ...

damit auch die Sonne wieder scheint" ...
And your Point would be....

Quote
What you mean with BEP there ? BREAK EVEN - vielleicht ? ? ?

We are not used to that "abreviations" that you use there... Even my BANK traders are shaking heads about your use of abreviations...

Lemme see... "your" BANK traders actually sit a'rd reading the EU thread with you???

For the FF gang here... make sure you know who your dance partners are before you say Yes... Here's his real sentiments of this great Forum and all ya'll which he first posted at fxinstructors forum last December when he "joined" FF...

Look up zigzag at fxinstructors forum...
Quote
Would be nice to hear what you think about these views. As they do have there (at forexfactory) many many stupid loosers. Which do not have much to say or to share as well. Much more participitiants without sufficiant experience and knowledge than here (at fxinstructors) I would like to say / to suppose / to think...

The most members have nothing to offer. Take a look at yourself. There are only very few who can say something, which can give you an advice or a hint.
http://forums.fxinstructor.com/showp...postcount=2...

Want more?
Quote
Dear fellow traders!

I have posted some grafical views on FOREXFACTORY.COM Forums...

As it is much easier for me to do it there - as they do have much more space for grafical uploads and downloads there ! Take a look at my thread there...

My alias name is REDSHERIFF
http://forums.fxinstructor.com/showt...=7424#post7424

He only trolls here for the upload capabilities and to feed his Ego by insulting all of us.
FUBAR...
  • #193,614
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:59am Feb 10, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Clouds
Let me ask you something. Do you play poker? Do you think that's skill or chance.

do you play poker clouds?

nm i kept reading and got the answer
  • #193,615
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:59am Feb 10, 2010 11:59am
well, stop the topic. both of you are correct! have u thought to urself that trading is a combination of both 50/50 and technique logic. try to get what im saying. both of u r not wrong at all.

infact my rate is only 0.17 to 0.27...

good day
  • #193,616
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:01pm Feb 10, 2010 12:01pm
Quite the detective to hunt him down on another site....

Quoting ak4x
... Been waiting and watching for you to uncork for some time now...



And your Point would be....

For the FF gang here... make sure you know who your dance partners are before you say Yes... Here's his real sentiments of this great Forum which he first posted at fxinstructors forum last December when he "joined" FF...

Look up zigzag at fxinstructors forum...

http://forums.fxinstructor.com/showp...postcount=2...

Want more?...
  • #193,617
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:01pm Feb 10, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting mfoste1
do you play poker clouds?
Of course I do. Just on facebook.
  • #193,618
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:02pm Feb 10, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting ILoveFF
Why DJ / US Stocks is correlated with E/U?

If DJ goes up E/U goes up and vice versa?
It's not.

While it is common for the dollar to rise in response to a Dow drop as funds are shuffled to and fro, it is not a consistent event that should ever be traded on.

Trust me. I tried it.

There is much more to the currency market than just the typical trader sentiment that is babbled about in forums. So you shouldn't simplify the USD direction to just Dow direction.

There is an excellent thread by DarkStar about the structure of forex brokers that you....and honestly everyone who claims to be a trader, should read and learn.

It's possibly the best written structure article ever written in layman terms.
Once you understand how small and insignificant currency traders really are, it changes how often you babble about crap you really have no understanding of.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #193,619
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:03pm Feb 10, 2010 12:03pm
It looks like we might see a restest of 3762
  • #193,620
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:05pm Feb 10, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting Clouds
Of course I do. Just on facebook.

yea i was just wondering how many in here play poker, considering you can use a lot of game theory of poker in fx or any market for that matter as well as managing risk
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