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  • #193,581
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:01pm Feb 10, 2010 1:01pm
Hey I do TA also even though I know it's still a 50-50 shot.
You have to do something else life gets too boring..

I'm just saying...

[quote=ak4x;3451953]You may be right... but like Dylan said..." It ain't me babe..." I just pinch 'em where I can w/o gettin' slapped.
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,582
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:04pm Feb 10, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting ak4x
not at all... Attachment
Sweet thank you. I should have checked your profile before asking.. I am not a fan of MT4 or the Oanda platforms. Autochartist looks clean and will give me alerts unlike Oanda.. Thank you for helping out...
  • #193,583
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:07pm Feb 10, 2010 1:07pm
hello

i am holding short on euro at 3700 for last 2 days with tp of 3570. twice i got the opportunity to close in green but i peristed with the shorts. now can any tell me if i can be in gree again or it wil only go up. i still think it will go down but i can be biased as i am holding a short position just wanted ur views. thnaks.
  • #193,584
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:09pm Feb 10, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting randy1953
When your just using TA your chance is not any better than the next guy using TA.
Yes, all traders can apply technical analysis equally .

Quote
If your excellent at your money management meaning when to enter and exit

That's not money management - money management concerns capital risk on a trade. What you are talking about is finding +ev trades, and many skilled traders use technical analysis to do this. If you think TA is about "finding the winner", then that just makes you a poor trader, or completely ignorant of TA. It's about finding entries that combine probability, risk, and reward to create a trade with positive expectancy.

Money management can never itself provide an advantage.

Quote
The odds are always 50-50 IMO

And your opinion would be incorrect. The odds are often far from 50/50, and any good trader knows this.

It seems like you're suggesting we're betting on coinflips, and all we need is R:R to be better than 1:1. If we did this making random entries, then we will usually fail (and the successes are just variance). Changing R:R will just change the distribution of wins and losses. If you reply that we shouldn't be making random entries, then you would be admitting that it is another skill that allows us to profit, not our R:R ratio.
  • #193,585
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:12pm Feb 10, 2010 1:12pm
Fwiw... cuz I don't trust any of these moves right now farther than I can eat them...

Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #193,586
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:17pm Feb 10, 2010 1:17pm
Hold your horses backup what is the first thing you need to know about the market before you enter? The direction get that wrong your a looser, chances of getting right 50-50 remember traders just as good if not better than you will have a TA that goes the other way.
randy



Quoting Mr J
Yes, all traders can apply technical analysis equally .



That's not money management - money management concerns capital risk on a trade. What you are talking about is finding +ev trades, and many skilled traders use technical analysis to do this. If you think TA is about "finding the winner", then that just makes you a poor trader, or completely ignorant of TA. It's about finding entries that combine probability, risk, and reward to create a trade with positive expectancy.
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,587
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:21pm Feb 10, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting randy1953
Hold your horses backup what is the first thing you need to know about the market before you enter? The direction get that wrong your a looser, chances of getting right 50-50 remember traders just as good if not better than you will have a TA that goes the other way.
randy
If there's a trend, like EU, and for past 2 months, it's had 8 bearish weeks, and 2 bullish weeks, you could conclude chances for bearish week is 80%.
  • #193,588
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:26pm Feb 10, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting randy1953
...even though I know it's still a 50-50 shot...
I gotta disagree with that too, otherwise even elghoz would have gotten it at some point...

I'm still just sayin...
FUBAR...
  • #193,589
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:27pm Feb 10, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Nomi1
hello

i am holding short on euro at 3700 for last 2 days with tp of 3570. twice i got the opportunity to close in green but i peristed with the shorts. now can any tell me if i can be in gree again or it wil only go up. i still think it will go down but i can be biased as i am holding a short position just wanted ur views. thnaks.
The whole 1.37 is my support/resistance zone. Very hard to say. if this breaks up, has chance to go near/around 1.42. which i'll short. if breaks down or bear move is intact, im expecting 1.31 - 1.32. My last short was ard 1.382.

have to depend wat is ur stop...
  • #193,590
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:27pm Feb 10, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Clouds
If there's a trend, like EU, and for past 2 months, it's had 8 bearish weeks, and 2 bullish weeks, you could conclude chances for bearish week is 80%.
If it reverses, you can always say that the chance of bullish reversal was 20%.
  • #193,591
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm
really lets see if you flipped a coin all day and it came up heads 80% of the time you can conclude what? Ony that on the next flip it's still a 50-50 chance.
It's inescapable.
The only sure thing that will raise your % is
1. Insider knowledge before it hits the news
remember there is always a trader that has a TA as good as yours and he is going the other way.
It is simple
randy


Quoting Clouds
If there's a trend, like EU, and for past 2 months, it's had 8 bearish weeks, and 2 bullish weeks, you could conclude chances for bearish week is 80%.
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,592
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm
By the way ...

What you mean with BEP there ?

BREAK EVEN - vielleicht ? ? ?

We are not used to that "abreviations" that you use there...

Even my BANK traders are shaking heads about your use of abreviations...

No such a kind of conversation is needed there...

And they do their job with thousands of REAL AND TRUE BUSINESS COUNTERPARTS ...

None of them speaks like that you do here in INTERNET only...

Typical 'MINIPIPPERS' codex - account holders of typical 'ONLINE BROKERS' do talk that way only...

Small accounting - big mouth there...


Quoting personalme
I'm sitting on my hand now. If there is any more down move then 1.3740 will be the place to re-enter. But for now seems like a reversal to me. I've done my short @3761 and it is at BEP now.

Attachment


Was really funny - to read all your postings there guys - within the last 4 hours I was long - with our member 'driver' - from Italia - the man with that useful barkeeper ...

Ha ! ! !

And what the hell you all was blabbering there around - most of you there ...

Therfore I do not want to tell you soo much here ...

Cause most of you talking really crap there ...

Well - timing is a very important thing there in this beautiful market ...

And we longed it quite a little bit later than our remarkeble guy with that 'trycicle' from "BELLA ITALIA" ...

That was at 3690 (16h16 CET)

And at 3680 (16h27 CET)

And we closed that at 1.3751 (19h29 CET)


So what ! ! !


And you 'FELLOW TRADERS' - what did you there ?

Some of you blabbering around - and nobody asked you to do such a thing ...


KINDERGARTEN there ! ! !

"Miracoli ist fertig Kinder - schön die 'Fresse' halten - und hinsetzen jetzt - schön alles aufessen Kinder - damit auch die Sonne wieder scheint" ...


Haaaa !


Das musste mal gesagt sein !


  • #193,593
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm Feb 10, 2010 1:30pm
H&S
Attached Image
  • #193,594
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:33pm Feb 10, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting randy1953
really lets see if you flipped a coin all day and it came up heads 80% of the time you can conclude what? Ony that on the next flip it's still a 50-50 chance.
It's inescapable.
The only sure thing that will raise your % is
1. Insider knowledge before it hits the news
remember there is always a trader that has a TA as good as yours and he is going the other way.
It is simple
randy
are you even looking at the charts? See monthly charts. Coin tosses don't work like that. If it did, this is what would happen...

Basically , you're just saying, if u can't make money, nobody can.

Heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, tails, tails, tails ,tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, heads, heads, heads
  • #193,595
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:34pm Feb 10, 2010 1:34pm
well there is that too I knew a guy that lightening hit him not 1 nor 2 but 3 times in his life. Did I mention he was also a golfer.
justsaying




Quoting ak4x
I gotta disagree with that too, otherwise even elghoz would have gotten it at some point...

I'm still just sayin...
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,596
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:36pm Feb 10, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting redsheriff
By the way ...

What you mean with BEP there ?

BREAK EVEN - vielleicht ? ? ?

We are not used to that "abreviations" that you use there...

Even my BANK traders are shaking heads about your use of abreviations...

No such a kind of conversation is needed there...

And they do their job with thousands of REAL AND TRUE BUSINESS COUNTERPARTS ...

None of them speaks like that you do here in INTERNET only...

Typical 'MINIPIPPERS' codex - account holders of typical 'ONLINE BROKERS' do talk that way only...

Small accounting...
hey you smart a$$ shut up.. who the f* you think you are.. this is a forum for everybody and everyone can post everything so I dont know what is your problem.. just get outta here
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #193,597
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:37pm Feb 10, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting randy1953
really lets see if you flipped a coin all day and it came up heads 80% of the time you can conclude what? Ony that on the next flip it's still a 50-50 chance.
It's inescapable.
The only sure thing that will raise your % is
1. Insider knowledge before it hits the news
remember there is always a trader that has a TA as good as yours and he is going the other way.
It is simple
randy
Good luck with that view around here. You are almost correct... the odds are actually a little worse than 50/50 on a short term intraday basis. Keep talking like that and the legions will soon appear to shout you down. We've had this discussion many times here over the last few years... so I can save you some time and cut to the chase. "If people believe they have an edge, you cannot convice them otherwise". Have a great day and good trades to you!!

Regards,
  • #193,598
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:37pm Feb 10, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Driver55
Let's see where we stay at 12.00h

Well Done Man ! ! !



Ciao Bello ...





Sorry - I was with you there ...
  • #193,599
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:38pm Feb 10, 2010 1:38pm
That is my point of course coin flips do not work like that it's strictly random however the chance is always 50-50
Randy



Quoting Clouds
are you even looking at the charts? See monthly charts. Coin tosses don't work like that. If it did, this is what would happen...

Heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, tails, tails, tails ,tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, heads, heads, heads
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #193,600
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:40pm Feb 10, 2010 1:40pm
Okay thank you I heard some wisdom so enough said..
You are more than right sir..
And yes good luck to you with your trading (pun intended)




Quoting FX-Petra
Good luck with that view around here. You are almost correct... the odds are actually a little worse than 50/50 on a short term intraday basis. Keep talking like that and the legions will soon appear to shout you down. We've had this discussion many times here over the last few years... so I can save you some time and cut to the chase. "If people believe they have an edge, you cannot convice them otherwise". Have a great day and good trades to you!!

Regards,
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
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