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EUR/CHF

  • #221
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:28pm Feb 4, 2010 9:28pm
I'm reading in some news quips that there could be another round of intervention in the offing tonight (north america time) and one article saying they wouldn't be surprised if this got pushed back up to the 1.50 area. We'll see I guess. I have another buy stop in place to catch it if SNB isn't done.
  • #222
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:40pm Feb 4, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting sinner-
Highest it's been in years? I thought you said it was 21:1 at 1.5?



On Wednesday New York open we crossed the H1 Gann and daily pivot with support from the daily trendline (14LWMA).

If you took that trade (I didn't - too busy shorting gold) this move wouldn't seem unusual at all. I hope you don't take this as a "hindsight call" - gann+pivot cross is a well known signal.
No I said it hasnt been near 21:1 anytime since 1.5 since you through the 1.5 number out.
But anyhow good luck and all that jazz
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #223
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:59pm Feb 4, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting dual-c
I'm reading in some news quips that there could be another round of intervention in the offing tonight (north america time) and one article saying they wouldn't be surprised if this got pushed back up to the 1.50 area. We'll see I guess. I have another buy stop in place to catch it if SNB isn't done.
Its probable that they might intervene again later today, or wait til us nfp comes out to perhaps do it on monday, I highly doubt they were satisfied with what little they did earlier.
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #224
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:25pm Feb 4, 2010 10:25pm
It's been reported that this got up to 4905 although it doesn't show it on my platform, only up to 4808. Lots and lots of European and Swiss sellers were in the 4900 area and pushed it right back down to where it's at now. better prices for them to de-leverage at, so they jump all over it. Be funny if they intervened again but right during NFP release, that would really catch everyone off guard for sure...lol... I'm laughing just thinking about it.
  • #225
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:27pm Feb 4, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting dual-c
It's been reported that this got up to 4905 although it doesn't show it on my platform, only up to 4808. Lots and lots of European and Swiss sellers were in the 4900 area and pushed it right back down to where it's at now. better prices for them to de-leverage at, so they jump all over it. Be funny if they intervened again but right during NFP release, that would really catch everyone off guard for sure...lol... I'm laughing just thinking about it.
LOL!
that would be frikkin classic! hahaha
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #226
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:35pm Feb 4, 2010 10:35pm
Im thinking the market will not bode so well with such a blatant and arrogant form of intervention.

My main gripe is the fact that the SNB appeased so many idiot longs that sat idle for months - SQUEEZE them out, not appease them. It would appear they are none the wiser. pshhh

I absolutely hate it when government entities enter into the fx market.....
  • #227
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:42pm Feb 4, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting Warwick
Im thinking the market will not bode so well with such a blatant and arrogant form of intervention.

My main gripe is the fact that the SNB appeased so many idiot longs that sat idle for months - SQUEEZE them out, not appease them. It would appear they are none the wiser. pshhh

I absolutely hate it when government entities enter into the fx market.....
Im not a huge fan of CB intervention, but when it happens I wont pass up the opportunity to capitalize on it
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #228
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:44am Feb 5, 2010 6:44am
I'm still bearish on this pair. However, I must admit that EUR/CHF is holding rather well at 1.4700 in the face of a butchered EUR/USD. So I'll probably just watch for now, neither long or short.

On the other hand, a note of caution for new longs is that this support is now like a cracked flood gate. Who knows when it might break?

I'll be watching 1.4650 sup and 1.4770 res.
  • #229
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:57am Feb 5, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Quantisan
I'm still bearish on this pair. However, I must admit that EUR/CHF is holding rather well at 1.4700 in the face of a butchered EUR/USD. So I'll probably just watch for now, neither long or short.

On the other hand, a note of caution for new longs is that this support is now like a cracked flood gate. Who knows when it might break?

I'll be watching 1.4650 sup and 1.4770 res.
I think the 1.4600-4650 area could be the new line for now. I think that if SNB were not to defend where they defended yesterday, you're right, it would be like a cracked flood gate and this pair would fall much further past the lows of yesterday. Then it would be beyond SNB's control to get the pair back to a place where they can still maintain the price level they want.
  • #230
  • Feb 5, 2010 11:27am Feb 5, 2010 11:27am
lol... here we go again, as could be predicted by all, back down she goes. I read an article this morning that swiss exporters are hurting b/c of the franc strengthening and that SNB will likely defend the 1.46 area although SNB has not and will not make it clear where the line in the sand will be for the sake of keeping everyone "off guard." The article went on to say that if price were to drop below yesterday's lows that it could almost be beyond SNB's ability to maintain price around where it is or just above. So, we'll see when it gets back down to 1.4550-4600 area if they do. One thing is for sure though, is with a stronger than normal franc (whatever normal would be...lol), deflation could become a big problem for their economy, and they definitely don't want that.
  • #231
  • Feb 5, 2010 11:54am Feb 5, 2010 11:54am
DJ News article: http://www.djnewsplus.com:80/article...+Over+Exports+
  • #232
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:16pm Feb 5, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting dual-c
DJ News article: http://www.djnewsplus.com:80/article...+Over+Exports+

Unfortunately, not available to non subscriber. Thank you for resuming it to us. They indeed must be screaming, their product are from a beginning very expensive, and if you add on the exchange rate. No need to say about deflation, more with oil dropping like it did today. Remember that inflation came back, generally, because of the crude beeing around 80. To-day, it touched 70 again. Actually, i saw it with a 69 in front, very shortly. This, with a strong chf, will create deflation, no doubt.
  • #233
  • Feb 6, 2010 7:50pm Feb 6, 2010 7:50pm
Here's an article by Wachovia Bank and their opinion re: Greece and the Eurozone's issues: http://lovingforex.com/forex-news/fu...20100206106190
  • #234
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:14am Feb 10, 2010 7:14am
My sup level noted last Friday at 1.4650 is still holding into mid-week. I have NO position in this still. But the long side seem more likely to win in the short term.

EURCHF at 1.4663 as I write this. Low is 1.4648 today so far. Will look to re-enter short around 1.4770.
  • #235
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:48pm Feb 11, 2010 12:48pm
Made 4 pips today in what I like to call the d r i f t. Who needs sleeping pills?
Gone to a better place
  • #236
  • Feb 11, 2010 10:47pm Feb 11, 2010 10:47pm
intervention today makes sense (friday, before chinese holiday & valentines day) if it goes below 1.4642 level in next 4 hours
  • #237
  • Feb 12, 2010 12:41am Feb 12, 2010 12:41am
Quoting mkla80
intervention today makes sense (friday, before chinese holiday & valentines day) if it goes below 1.4642 level in next 4 hours
SNB INTERVENTION
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #238
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:05am Feb 12, 2010 1:05am
I been expecting those huge moves on the eurchf and eurjpy. I caught them
  • #239
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:06am Feb 12, 2010 1:06am
yup, but 50 pips only.....


they are doing very tiny interventions..

Maybe this prepares the BIG one...
  • #240
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:54am Feb 12, 2010 5:54am
Quoting mkla80
intervention today makes sense (friday, before chinese holiday & valentines day) if it goes below 1.4642 level in next 4 hours
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