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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #198,161
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:58pm Feb 4, 2010 5:58pm
I am bearish on cable and am waiting for the support to break. Attached you see the weekly chart and the bearish trendline from middle of July 2008 is still intact.

USD shows great strength across all markets and I don't see a trend change at the moment. So far, I will stay short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable-weekly.png Size: 31 KB
  • #198,162
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:05pm Feb 4, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting digger1
hey Dr D, check your 5 minute chart, pattern real similar to the one we talked about before , how ever with all the action and talk of the soverign debt issues and the commodity trades getting unwound a little lol, busy day in the mkts across the board definitly worth watching , I have a few longs from the lows to see how far they will go , looking for 1.5820 , will be suprised if they make it that far thoAttachment
I live and trade off of the 5m chart compression patterns... to me it's the reality of the everyday forex. But I dream off of the daily. Lol

Thanks,

Dr. D.
  • #198,163
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:20pm Feb 4, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting fourxtrader
I live and trade off of the 5m chart compression patterns... to me it's the reality of the everyday forex. But I dream off of the daily. Lol

Thanks,

Dr. D.
Dr D , I dont know how it would look or how much you would need to change your ema,s but it may be worth a look at a 60 tic chart, (very similar to a 5 minute chart) tic charts take time out of the equation, may be interesting to see if they would tip you off any quicker than a time based chart when that tipping point is being reached
  • #198,164
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:31pm Feb 4, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting nimmu1982
looks like it can retrace to 1.5800 for now
getting closer
  • #198,165
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:34pm Feb 4, 2010 7:34pm
hai guy...good morning.....

just wondering kow low gu want to go?....cam we se retecment or not?...
Revesal Trader
  • #198,166
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:40pm Feb 4, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting mygoldenpips
hai guy...good morning.....

just wondering kow low gu want to go?....cam we se retecment or not?...
Nobody knows! Not Joking.
  • #198,167
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:02pm Feb 4, 2010 8:02pm
New target of holding shorts.

Good Luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.JPG Size: 99 KB
  • #198,168
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:19pm Feb 4, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting sohail212
New target of holding shorts.

Good Luck

nice chart, but GU could retrace to 1.5820 before go down.... be carefull with news tonight.... it could be make market REVERSAL doesn't look like we think market down trend....

good luck guys
  • #198,169
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:30pm Feb 4, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting adamp
I am bearish on cable and am waiting for the support to break. Attached you see the weekly chart and the bearish trendline from middle of July 2008 is still intact.

USD shows great strength across all markets and I don't see a trend change at the moment. So far, I will stay short.
Wouldn't it have to break the support of Oct 11 to continue short?
  • #198,170
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:40pm Feb 4, 2010 9:40pm
Better to sell Euro..
Portugal and Spain will follow Greece soon..
1000+ pips will waiting for us..

The election will held in UK mid-year..
So pound will "not allow" to fall deeply..

My opinion could be wrong..
Patience + Discipline =
  • #198,171
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:19pm Feb 4, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Jemmy
D-4 ~ BULLS 0 : 7 BEARS
D-3 ~ BULLS 0 : 7 BEARS
D-2 ~ BULLS 1 : 6 BEARS
D-1 ~ BULLS 3 : 4 BEARS
D-0 ~ BULLS 1 : 6 BEARS
Bears train move again..
Today will deliver heavy weight GBP news..
5905...still holding short 5922, SL=6070 (yesterday high)
Attachment
D-4 ~ BULLS 0 : 7 BEARS
D-3 ~ BULLS 1 : 6 BEARS
D-2 ~ BULLS 3 : 4 BEARS
D-1 ~ BULLS 1 : 6 BEARS
D-0 ~ BULLS 0.5 : 6.5 BEARS
Bears train still moving..
5741...still holding short 5922, SL=5910 (yesterday high)
Today NFP will release..
I will use CAD news (1.5 hours before USD news) as indicator..
As a good neighbour USD probably will same direction with CAD..
If CAD news in red, I will close my position,otherwise let it run (if SL not hit before)..
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline =
  • #198,172
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:30pm Feb 4, 2010 10:30pm
Yes, I believe it will retrace and that's where I want to short more. I have shorts from 1.5920 so enough room to play with.

I believe the trend is down specially how the year started, could be wrong so be careful.

I have seen people make trades with bigger lot size, then account is in trouble. My simple rule for lot size is:

1k account size= 2 micro lot size(1 pip= $0.20)
10 account size= 2 mini lot size (1 pip=$2)


Quoting sinyo79
nice chart, but GU could retrace to 1.5820 before go down.... be carefull with news tonight.... it could be make market REVERSAL doesn't look like we think market down trend....

good luck guys
  • #198,173
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:51pm Feb 4, 2010 10:51pm
.......
Attached Image
Don't tell me how much you can earn. Tell me how much you may lose..
  • #198,174
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:19pm Feb 4, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting digger1
Dr D , I dont know how it would look or how much you would need to change your ema,s but it may be worth a look at a 60 tic chart, (very similar to a 5 minute chart) tic charts take time out of the equation, may be interesting to see if they would tip you off any quicker than a time based chart when that tipping point is being reached
Digger1,

If Ctic reads your post I'm sure he'll respond. He's been
studying that relationship.

I think I'll also look around for a chart that gives 10-30 sec tf's...
so with the EMA's running up to 144 periods that spreads out the
data and should give better entry signals than the 1m.

I know that then switching to the 5m and 15m charts offers
stability for maintaining the trades as the higher EMA's remain
in separation.

Turveyd on his FF (M1 only traders, any pair) thread, has a
successful system of trading only a 1m chart with extended
moving averages. Now I've noticed he is using an S10... I'm
assuming without reading his whole thread that's 10sec charting.
We know that a 1m with a 240ema is equivalent to a 4 hr in many
respects. He uses EMA's at 16 or 21, 70, 160, 360 and throws in
a 500 or 600 and the 1440. (1440m = daily)

Digger, can you share with the group specifically what you mean
by 'tipping point'? Is it also referred to by other terms?

Here's a 1m chart from an old download of Turveyd's M1 system.
Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #198,175
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:25pm Feb 4, 2010 11:25pm
Actually it was the 4H chart. Now that I am at my trading office I have my charts handy... 34MA is the purple line 76.4 is the fib it hit.



Quoting fourxtrader
OK! It was a daily chart.

Thanks,


I see my daily compression chart is still 'salvageable'.
The 144EMA still is holding 5 of the higher MA's tight within 8 pips.
D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #198,176
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:27pm Feb 4, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting Ctic
Actually it was the 4H chart. Now that I am at my trading office I have my charts handy... 34MA is the purple line 76.4 is the fib it hit.
OK hard to see, hopefully this chart is better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #198,177
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:36pm Feb 4, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting fourxtrader
broken trendlines or a double bottom?

She's broken the trendlines but hasn't yet broken my heart.

It's obvious I'd like to see the GU move back up above
this area of compression to pull all the EMA's into a tighter
pattern for the BIG ONE! Maybe NFP will help put this view
of dollar strength (global safe haven) back into balance with
[i][color=#0000ff]the...
This spot is a very tricky spot. 4H chart is past 161.8 already so will we continue to the 261.8, hard to say. Also we are at the 100fib for the quarterly fibs, will we break? Again hard to say. I think we may break, but not until the next week or the following week.

My opinion:

I feel that we will retrace back up and not break this point at this time. It may inch down slowly until NFP but NFP will send it flying back up. I am playing this long with my stop loss under the 100 quarterly fib. I highlighted the fibs for easier spotting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #198,178
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:39pm Feb 4, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting digger1
Dr D , I dont know how it would look or how much you would need to change your ema,s but it may be worth a look at a 60 tic chart, (very similar to a 5 minute chart) tic charts take time out of the equation, may be interesting to see if they would tip you off any quicker than a time based chart when that tipping point is being reached
Digger,

I have been experimenting with the compression charts off the tick chart and 1 min chart. I have found some interesting correlations. With regards to the tic chart I noticed when it compresses, it compresses between the bid and ask lines. Once the bid and ask end up on the same side of the compressions that is the direction it breaks. Now since it is a tick chart, it could break for 5, pips, 10 pips, 50 pips....Who know, but it is nice insight to the other charts.

C.
  • #198,179
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:40pm Feb 4, 2010 11:40pm
Daily low on Oct 12 2009 the support for now (1.5729) if this breaks next support will be 1.5708 (Oct 13 2009)

Very much looking like a Short day to me though, daily, 4H and 1H candles showing reducing highs.

Trade well.
The trend is not your friend, it's your master.
  • #198,180
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:41pm Feb 4, 2010 11:41pm
Is anyone else long
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
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