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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #198,141
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:55am Feb 4, 2010 11:55am
Quoting manize
EJ moves crazy, short after bounced at 122.90 --> 70 pips sofar !
Catch the momentum got success closed + 70 pips, GU BE !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #198,142
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:56am Feb 4, 2010 11:56am
We're through December's low. If we get through October's low we could be in for a ride.
  • #198,143
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:00pm Feb 4, 2010 12:00pm
Hi chaps,

Well its a potentially very good time coming up to buy and have a really good Risk Reward ratio, I would have liked to put a buy on around the 15700 level, being that there is a lot of support at that level and there is a strong likelyhood of a potential up move, if we look at our daily charts as pointed out that is the October low, normally I would be quite happy to jump in with a fairly tight stop at that level (or knowing me probably lose patience and jump in a little earlier) I am, however, going to excercise restraint mainly because of the figures coming out tomorrow from the US, if cable is pushed down sharply by these figures and breaks this key level of support, that may trigger the currency to begin its fall which has been forecast by some for a while now, and if we look at the weekly charts we can see quite clearly why.

The interaction with the 50% fib from the highs in July 08 to the lows in January 09 (2.0163H -1.3477 L) looking at that chart shows cable to be bearish, of course most day traders are not overly concerned about weekly TFs (myself included)
However I believe it is important to bare it in mind at key levels such as the one we are currently approaching.

The great thing about them is as I said you can go in on a buy say at 15700 and put a 40 - 50 pip stop on and potentialy grab a lot of pips for your trouble, she could bounce all the way back up to the high 160's before coming down again, I personally think that is not a bad trade to be in on!

Best of luck!
  • #198,144
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:01pm Feb 4, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting manize
EJ moves crazy, short after bounced at 122.90 --> 70 pips sofar !
Good position.

I played bottom feeder and grabbed pips up off this first
bounce after the ridiculous drop (on all the yen pairs).

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #198,145
  • Edited 12:16pm Feb 4, 2010 12:05pm | Edited 12:16pm
Hi All

After blowing quite a few accounts using all the indicators possible... as you do when you start trading, I needed to change then I came across this thread.
Just plain simply, trading off round numbers, 50`s, channels, trend lines, congestion areas and lastly reading the candles... its great.
It has helped my account to grow by 11% since January.
I would like to thank all you guys and will be posting more... since this is the way forward
  • #198,146
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:09pm Feb 4, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Good position.

I played bottom feeder and grabbed pips up off this first
bounce after the ridiculous drop (on all the yen pairs).

Dr. D.
Dr. D,

I was able to get in when it spiked up a couple days ago and went to my 76.4 retracement on the 4H fibs. It worked out perfectly as now we are down to the last major point of support, the 100 fib for the quarterly fibs. If it breaks here, we go downtown. I closed out my positions in anticipation of a little bounce, may not be a very big one though.

Remember the 34 MA I told you I use, the spike up to the said fib was right where the 34 was at when the move down started. 34MA is now at the 100 fib for the 4H chart, so may see hesitation. Just a thought..

C.
  • #198,147
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:22pm Feb 4, 2010 12:22pm
inverted H&S on 5 and 10m?
  • #198,148
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:23pm Feb 4, 2010 12:23pm
inverted H&S on 5M. Needs to break .5790
  • #198,149
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:31pm Feb 4, 2010 12:31pm
Ctic,
Keep throwing in your charts to illustrate these points.

I prefer to adhere to this rule... "no chart - no post".

Then we all are educated.

Here's a 4h on the EJ... and a 34sma. From where are the HL's
drawn and which TF's that give you those fibs at 76.4 fib and 100?

Sorry for getting away from the GU.

Thanks,

Dr. D.

Quoting Ctic
Dr. D,

I was able to get in when it spiked up a couple days ago and went to my 76.4 retracement on the 4H fibs. It worked out perfectly as now we are down to the last major point of support, the 100 fib for the quarterly fibs. If it breaks here, we go downtown. I closed out my positions in anticipation of a little bounce, may not be a very big one though.

Remember the 34 MA I told you I use, the spike up to the said fib was right where the 34 was at when the move down started. 34MA is now at the 100 fib for the 4H chart, so may see hesitation....
Attached Image
  • #198,150
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:45pm Feb 4, 2010 12:45pm
Could the cable be heading towards the 5300 marks,which is off the weekly chart and is fibs no 23.6?
  • #198,151
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:00pm Feb 4, 2010 1:00pm
No fundamental reason for these moves...
....
IF you remove fear, panic and greed. LOL

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #198,152
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:02pm Feb 4, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting fourxtrader
No fundamental reason for these moves...
....
IF you remove fear, panic and greed. LOL

Dr. D.

Then considering the alternative (indecision).....

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #198,153
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:14pm Feb 4, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Then considering the alternative (indecision).....

Dr. D.
1.5756 support 2 still holding
  • #198,154
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:36pm Feb 4, 2010 3:36pm
Still currently Short from 1.5983. I have already taken a portion of my profit out @ 1.5849. Still holding the rest for 1.5706. I have now moved my Stop Loss once again to lock in more profits. Stop Loss currently set @ +192 pips. Please keep in mind Tomorrow is NFP Release, trade with caution.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #198,155
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:31pm Feb 4, 2010 4:31pm
Dr. D,

Sorry for the no chart. Being tax season I have been in my tax office more than I like, with limited access to charts since I am not at my trading office. Here is the chart I did post on a different forum, but being so busy this time of year I have been taking short cuts. I took the 34MA and other MA's off the chart to highlight the fib lines and the flag.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4395

The link to the other post with the chart.

Quoting fourxtrader
Ctic,
Keep throwing in your charts to illustrate these points.

I prefer to adhere to this rule... "no chart - no post".

Then we all are educated.

Here's a 4h on the EJ... and a 34sma. From where are the HL's
drawn and which TF's that give you those fibs at 76.4 fib and 100?

Sorry for getting away from the GU....
  • #198,156
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:52pm Feb 4, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Ctic
Dr. D,

Sorry for the no chart. Being tax season I have been in my tax office more than I like, with limited access to charts since I am not at my trading office. Here is the chart I did post on a different forum, but being so busy this time of year I have been taking short cuts. I took the 34MA and other MA's off the chart to highlight the fib lines and the flag.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4395

The link to the other post with the chart.

OK! It was a daily chart.

Thanks,


I see my daily compression chart is still 'salvageable'.
The 144EMA still is holding 5 of the higher MA's tight within 8 pips.
D
Attached Image
  • #198,157
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:19pm Feb 4, 2010 5:19pm
hey Dr D, check your 5 minute chart, pattern real similar to the one we talked about before , how ever with all the action and talk of the soverign debt issues and the commodity trades getting unwound a little lol, busy day in the mkts across the board definitly worth watching , I have a few longs from the lows to see how far they will go , looking for 1.5820 , will be suprised if they make it that far tho
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #198,158
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:27pm Feb 4, 2010 5:27pm
looks like it can retrace to 1.5800 for now
Where there is a will there is a way...
  • #198,159
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:33pm Feb 4, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting nimmu1982
looks like it can retrace to 1.5800 for now
well its got its work cut out for it but anything is possible lol
  • #198,160
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:40pm Feb 4, 2010 5:40pm
broken trendlines or a double bottom?

She's broken the trendlines but hasn't yet broken my heart.

It's obvious I'd like to see the GU move back up above
this area of compression to pull all the EMA's into a tighter
pattern for the BIG ONE! Maybe NFP will help put this view
of dollar strength (global safe haven) back into balance with
the rest of the crappy world economies.

Dr. D.
Attached Image
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